Saturday, December 14, 2013

January 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For January 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/12/january-2014-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of January 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1000-1200 every month.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillover in FY 2014.

EB2 China: As expected, EB2 China also moved forward by 4 weeks. It should continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month. It will still be behind EB3 China which is ahead by more than 3 years.

EB2 India: There was no change in EB2 India movement. As we had mentioned earlier, there was huge retrogression in EB2 India due to large amount of porting from EB3 India to EB2 India. We will be adding a new blog exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. Till then, please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: The biggest (expected) forward movement was in EB3 ROW, Mexico and China category. This category moved forward exactly by 6 months. According to I-485 pending inventory, demand is very low at around 14,000. The annual quota for EB3 ROW is over 40,000. Hence dates have moved forward significantly. Last year, due to delay in moving dates forward, DOS had to assign unused EB3 ROW visas to EB3 India and EB3 Philippines.

EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 6 months. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for this fiscal year.

EB3 China Other workers Category also continues to move at same rate as EB3 China.

EB3 Mexico: Similarly EB3 Mexico also moved forward by 6 months.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India had retrogressed by 3 weeks in last VB. It did not move at all in the January VB. Since EB2 India dates have also retrogressed, it is no longer possible for EB3 India to port to EB2 India (for dates after 2004). Hence it is possible that dates for EB3 India would remain the same in the next VB.

Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).

EB3 Philippines: Another large movement (for this category) was in EB Philippines where dates moved forward by 5 weeks due to low demand. This category is likely to continue to move forward.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

Following categories did not move forward: F1 Philippines, F1 Mexico, F2B Mexico, F3 Mexico and all F2A categories.

F1 Philippines: This category has slowed down a lot from 4-6 months movement every month. It is currently moving at monthly average of 3 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was no further movement in this category. DOS is holding the dates steady to help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications or consular processing cases. Once enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back and then continue to move forward slowly. Please see article for more details for FB category.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F2b Philippines moved forward by 5 weeks. F2B Mexico did not move at all.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by weeks. Mexico did not move at all and Philippines moved forward by only 1 week.

Most other FB categories moved between 1 and 5 weeks.

If you have not done it yet, remember to add your case data to GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

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17 comments:

  1. Thank you for the analysis. Great job, as usual!

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  2. Until when can see movements in eb3 phils?

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    Replies
    1. EB3 Philippines should continue to move forward in fiscal year 2014. There could be a huge jump in the next few visa bulletins.

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    2. Happy holidays! Thank you Amazon for such blessing as in big leap for EB3 philippines. A great Christmasd gift for us waiting long. Hope you continue sharing this blessing so everyone is merry in welcoming Christ birth. God bless you always!!! :)

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  3. For F2A, i believe Charled O had predicted, couple of months back, that he will remain at this date for few months but thereafter will NOT retrogress but move fwd very slowly

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    Replies
    1. I think it will move by a week soon. Why? In another forum a person with a PD of Sep 11th in the F2A category is getting their case processed at NVC where as a person with a PD of Sep 26th, 2013 was told that there are no VISAS available and NVC will not process the case until the cut off date for F2A in VB meets the qualifying date set by NVC.

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    2. NVC will not process the case if it thinks PD won't become current soon. They get to know the VB much in advance than the general public!

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    3. Yes vijay i reckon u r right. It won't b retrogressing but there will b slow moment for f2a category. wat do u reckon since ur NVC process is complete when u can expect ur medical and interview.Meanwhile i have a question My annual income for 2012 and 2013 is above the poverty line. do i still need 4 joint sponser or it will work for this current year and 2012. Thanks in advance

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  4. amazon,any predictions for feb vb?

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    Replies
    1. It has been posted. Please se the link on the right sid of this page.

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  5. Unfavor with eb3 India. Please help us

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  6. Amazon, any idea when eb3 row will reach 13pd? Thx

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  7. Help for eb3 India.Please remove the backlog. MY PD July 2006. Please etc me known how much time I will wait.

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    Replies
    1. I think it takes to much time to wait cause India eb3 now is not moving still in 2003.

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    2. I think it takes to much time to wait cause India eb3 now is not moving still in 2003.

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  8. Hi there! I have been waiting for almost 4 (PD current in Sept 09) months now for my I 485 EB3 ROW TSC approval. Does anyone know whats going on?? IS USCIS out of visa numbers?? i did receive my EAD/AP card within 46 days of filings and after that is just calm.

    ReplyDelete

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