Thursday, July 24, 2014

Updated Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS).

Please see the important details below:

F2A All Countries: F2A category has retrogressed to 15MAR11 for Mexico and 01MAY12 for all other countries. F2A category is expected to move forward as far as Fall 2012 in September or October visa bulletin.

EB3 China: This category which has retrogressed by around 6 years is expected to move forward to 01NOV08 in August visa bulletin. Note: This category already moved forward to this date in August visa bulletin.

Initially EB3 China had very low demand. After huge forward movement, the demand increased significantly (including people porting from EB2 China to EB3 China). This resulted in heavy retrogression. After the retrogression, the demand decreased significantly, in addition to low demand in family based category. This resulted in dates moving forward by around 2 years in EB3 China category.

EB2 India: This category is expected to retrogress around November visa bulletin (as many of you are already expecting). There are many blog posts linked on the right side of this page which explains this in more details.

EB5 China: Due to continuous heavy demand in this category, DOS may have to retrogress dates for EB5 China sometimes in FY 2015.

Note: Most likely this may not happen because it can use the spillover from other EB5 countries (where demand is much lower).

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Earlier, we have seen that USCIS sometimes reported low numbers, even when demand was higher. This resulted in significant retrogression when the real demand was calculated by DOS.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

18 comments:

  1. Thanks for good news for F2A :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Any chance for EB2I Oct 2009 current in the Sep/Oct/Nov 2014 Visa Bulletins.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Check this out.
      http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1427455929/pd-2009-rfe/page/18

      Delete
  3. Yup...good news for f2a :-)

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  4. What about EB3-Mexico... are there any chances of dates moving forward on september?

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  5. I wonder if F2A will move to fall 2012 for Mexico as well, or just for all other countries.

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  6. Great news! Lets pray F2A category keeps moving foward

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  7. My ears were thirsty to listen hope f2a advances faster

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  8. Well when you say moving forward as far as fall 2012 for f2a you mean moving forward to the beginning of 2013?

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  9. Fall 2012 starts from September 22 to December 20

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  10. eb3 india has no good news. please remove backlog. my pd july 2006 eb3 india.

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  11. please Mr. charles thinks for eb3 india. My PD july 2006 EB3 India.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. What is your predictions based on the newly released I-485 inventory data as of July 21,2014?

    http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB-I-485-Pending-Inventory-July2014.pdf

    Is there enough spill over available to approve the PDs which are current now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm wondering the same thing..

      Delete
    2. There are more posts about this in Trackitt

      Delete

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