Monday, November 10, 2014

December 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For December 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/11/december-2014-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of December 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1200-1400 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300-600 per month. 

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 3 weeks in this visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month.

EB2 India: Also as expected, EB2 India category did not move forward after retrogressing in previous visa bulletin to 15FEB05. We had earlier posted a blog post that EB2 India quota has been used up for fiscal year 2014. This category may not move forward for the next few months.

We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. As many of you expected, retrogression was expected in November due to large demand from (a) applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India  (since they have been waiting in EB3 India category for more than a decade) and (b) applicants who are filing I-485 for the first time.

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had another big jump in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by 5 months, after moving forward by 8 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance rapidly for the next few months.

EB3 China: EB3 China also had also had a very big jump in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by 5 months, after moving forward by 9 months in last visa bulletin . In  August 2014 visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.

EB3 China is expected to continue to be ahead of EB2 China till atleast January 2015 visa bulletin.

EB3 China Other workers category did not move forward.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also moved forward by 5 months, after moving by 8 months in last visa bulletin.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 1 week. Due to high demand, this category is expected to move forward by 0-1 week in the next visa bulletin. The good news is that many applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

Hence the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand. However due to heavy retrogression in EB2 India, very few applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

EB3 Philippines: EB3 Philippines had another big jump. This category moved forward by 5 months. It also moved forward by 8 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months, and dates are expected to remain the same as the EB3ROW and EB3 Mexico categories.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2015.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 6 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 5 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category.  F2A Mexico moved forward by more than 3 months. All other countries moved forward by 3 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 7 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 3 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 2 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 1 week. Philippines moved forward by 2 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 2 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 2 weeks. Philippines moved forward by 4 weeks.. Mexico category moved forward by 2 week.

If you have not done it yet, please remember to add your case data to GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".


Also See:


Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links -->

5 comments:

  1. EB3 ROW (All other areas/Rest of World) will still move forward in the next bulletin which is January 2015? 5 months forward movement wasn't a big movement though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. gotta save the visa numbers for the Indians, yo.

      Delete
    2. indian/india falls under a different category though. this shouldn't affect the EB3 ROW

      Delete
    3. it does when calculating the total visa number for the category. and the spill overs. look back the history, you will see how Indian EBs have been benefiting from it.

      Delete
    4. the only reason EB2I and EB3I are slow is because the we have about 10-20 times more indian applicants than the rest of the world combined. In Theory, if the calculation (spill overs) by USCIS was correct each year, EB2I and EB3I should still be in the 1990's.

      Delete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum


Comments posted above will only appear in this blog post. Comments posted below will appear across all blog posts:

comments powered by Disqus