Wednesday, May 13, 2015

June 2015 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For June 2015 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/05/june-2015-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of June 2015 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1650 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 700 per month. 

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 12 months in this visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward around at a fast pace in the next few months.

EB2 India: EB2 India category also got a big jump in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by 5.5  months in this visa bulletin. Per the latest pending inventory, there around 1,000 I-485 pending applications before that date. In addition, there are applicants in EB2 who have not yet filed their application as well as applicants who will be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

So if (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to increase  and (2) spillovers from other EB categories decrease (due to increasing demand in these categories), the demand in EB2 India category will increase dramatically. EB2 India is currently expected to reach around 2009 dates in the next few months (for fiscal year 2015).

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had another jump in this visa bulletin. It again moved forward by 1.5 months, after moving forward by 3 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance slowly for the next 1-2 months.

EB3 China: EB3 China had another big movement in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by 4 months.  In August 2014 visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.

Due to previous large date movements in EB3 China, many applicants have started porting from EB2 China to EB3 China; thus the demand in EB2 China has started decreasing resulting in dates for EB2 China to move faster than EB3 China.

EB3 China Other workers category moved forward by 1.5 months.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also moved forward by 1.5 months, after moving by 3 months in last visa bulletin.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 1 week. Due to high demand, this category is expected to move forward by 1-2 week in the next visa bulletin. The good news is that many applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

Hence the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count/identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand. However since dates for EB2 India has started moving forward, as explained above, demand in EB3 India will decrease as porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases.

EB3 Philippines: EB3 Philippines had another large retrogression in this visa bulletin. This category retrogressed by around 2.5 years. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months but at a much slower rate.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2015. This is one of the main reasons for rapid forward movement in EB2 India (for those who are not aware, the base quota for EB2 India is around 2,802 visas).

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category retrogressed by nearly 5 years. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 1 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category.  F2A Mexico did not move forward in this visa bulletin. All other countries moved forward by 4 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 0 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 1 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 1 weeks.

F3 Category: No movement in any country. F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 0 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 0 week. Philippines moved forward by 0 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 5 weeks. Mexico category moved retrogressed by 18 weeks. Philippines moved forward by 2 weeks.

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".


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16 comments:

  1. Hi,
    I filled my I-485 last year in august, and my PD is 09/10/2008. When do you think i should get my GC ?

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  2. can someone please explain why there's a back track of 5 yrs for F1 PH?
    "F1 Category: F1 Philippines category retrogressed by nearly 5 years."


    ReplyDelete
  3. guys!!! plz update about interview letter!!! pd from sep 2013 to nov 2013!!!

    ReplyDelete
  4. i got my interview letter last week. my pd is 8 sept 2013

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When is your interview?

      Delete
  5. PD June 27, 2014. F2A Welcome letter received this morning!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congratulation ...maybe something good is gonna happen������

      Delete
    2. I think so. My pd also june 2014. I already did choice of agent now waiting for review to pay fees.

      Delete
  6. i have a friend with pd 22 May 2014, she received her welcome letter yesterday and they asked her to choose an agent already. she is F2A. good luck to all

    ReplyDelete
  7. PD June 2014. Just completed choice of agent. Whats next?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pay the AOS fee, IV fee....

      Delete
    2. It wont let me pay. What must I do?

      Delete
  8. all this r not true..bcoz my pd is june 2..2014 n i didnt recieved wl yet i called nvc and they said they r not processing june yet..so all this nonsensense.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. my pd also june 16 /2014 pending..

      Delete

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