Friday, September 26, 2014

Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS).

Please see the important details below:

EB2 India: As we had reported earlier, EB2 India category quota has been exhausted for FY 2014 on September 10, 2014. However USCIS will continue to accept applications from EB2 India applicants.

In addition, demand in EB2 India category has also increased due to (1) new filings and (2) upgrades from EB3 India to EB2 India category. This will result in heavy retrogression in EB2 India. Priority dates are expected to retrogress from 2009 to early 2005 in the next visa bulletin.

EB3 Philippines: The cut off date for this category is now same as EB3 ROW. This is due to (1) reduced demand in EB1 Philippines and EB2 Philippines (2) low demand from EB3 Philippines. EB3 Philippines will continue to have same cutoff date as EB3 ROW for next few months. After that, the dates may change depending on demand in EB1, EB2 and EB3 Philippines category.

EB5 China: This category became unavailable starting from August 23, 2014 and will remain unavailable till Sept 30, 2014. This means EB5 China is unavailable for fiscal year 2014. EB5 China will be available starting from October 1, 2014 (start of fiscal year 2015).

In addition, due to heavy demand, EB5 China is also expected to retrogress around May 2015 for fiscal year 2015.

An important note for EB5 China applicants is that if they have set up interview overseas (consulate processing), visas will continue to be available. Visas will not be available for EB5 China applicants who has not yet set up an interview. However USCIS/NVC will continue to process EB5 China applications.

For All Applicants:  If the primary applicant is from heavily retrogressed country and your spouse is from different country (which is not retrogressed), the primary applicant can do a "cross chargeabilty" and apply under the spouse country. Example, if the primary applicant is from EB2 China but their spouse is from Indonesia, then they can apply  for cross chargeabilty under EB2 ROW category when they file the I-485 application.

Did you know: Indonesia is comprised of 13,466 islands and the word "Indonesia" means island(s).

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Earlier, we have seen that USCIS sometimes reported low numbers, even when demand was higher. This resulted in significant retrogression when the real demand was calculated by DOS.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

Also See:

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41 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Realistically, I think EB3 ROW will move 6 months in the November bulletin and another 6 months in the December one, bringing it back to 01-OCT-2012, which is where it was before the retrogression of FY2014 happened. What happens after that in Q2 of FY2015 is really beyond my predictive abilities, but I expect it will continue to move forward at a healthy pace.

      Personally, I can't wait for EB3 ROW to reach 01-OCT-2012 so that my PD becomes current again. So I am going to hope that it will move a full year in the next (November) visa bulletin!

      Delete
  2. Most imp category is F2A, many are looking for F2A movement predictions

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Any predictions for F2A how long it is moving forward

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  3. F2A plz make it current..., suffering a lot without family

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1 year 6 months had passed without family

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    2. This is like a torture, i hope we can expect some thing good in nov

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    3. EB2 struggling from 10 years....what is this called? :-)

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    4. My heart broke when i saw retrogress to 2005 for EB2 India. When will it be current? Loosing patience really

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  4. What about family based F 1 pd why its show 22 april

    ReplyDelete
  5. We very appreciate for your so fast and newer legally immigrations news:)
    I'm US citizen waiting for my daughters from Europe / I-130 F1 /.
    They case is waiting in National Visa Center and that will take maybe 5 years more.
    I don't need to tell you dear Officer how much I miss my daughters.
    I did check Bulletin Visa and before 1996 was "U" and sons and daughters didn't wait for GC.
    The line was started on 1997. Every year is longer and longer.But our President is signed the same numbers.
    Looks like the line will be longer and longer and from 7 years waiting will become to maybe 10 years.
    Do you know Mr Immigration Officer some news from President to change something good for us?
    We are US citizens,
    they are our children,
    I know tehy are my adult daughters but for me they will be always my children,specially if they are single.I miss them. My husband American citizen miss them too.Hes American family can't believe about this law for US citizens.

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh my god, so sad

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    2. Yes it is sad:(
      How long time I will seat alone to our Thanksgiving dinner,how long time to our Christmas time,how many time I will be alone on my Birthday?How many time I will buy fly tickets to my daughters?How many times I will cry when our beautiful time together its closing time.
      I really hope some one will make a surprise for US Citizens and they sons and daughters who respect immigrations law and never broken law.

      Delete
    3. Jeez, people should cut the drama about their adult "children". If they really wanted to come and live here they would go and try obtain a GC on equal ground with other adult people. If they care about being with you during holidays, how about just getting a 3y tourist visa which allows to stay at least 3 month (may be 6, don't remember exactly).

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    4. Why to make a combinations with visas if we can go on simple and legally road.

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    5. Hope legally Immigration will be change for better for American's sons and daughters as soon is possible.

      Delete
  6. Replies
    1. It will move 2-3 weeks per month it is fix, no need to ask about F1

      Delete
  7. why mr. charles doesn't think for eb3 india

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is it hard to understand that the main reason is the too much number of applicants in that category? The numbers are way way too high for the numerical limits. If there is no limit, then the country will become USAI (United States of America and India)

      Delete
    2. Try to read the latest article @ http://www.cilawgroup.com for you to understand why this is happening.

      Delete
  8. According to the sources, F2A will move just 2-3 weeks in nov 2014

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh you shouldn't consider your ass as a resource, dude

      Delete
  9. Plz explain F 1 pd of family base why its april 22 again in perdictions

    ReplyDelete
  10. unjustity with eb3 india. only one week. the other catergories n countries r taking a big jump in visa bulletin. american immigration system is worst in the world.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and needs to be replace

      Delete
  11. Is very bad news, for F2A category. When we expect that movement will become current for all applicants filled before december 2013, until the last year in august was current from Sept 08 2013, I don´t know how is that. what is the base which they make the calculation to GC benificiary. I´m from Nicaragua with F2A category with PD 02 Dec 2013. Somebody want explain me please?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It takes 5-6 months for your priority date to become current

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    2. How do you know that?, what is the resource that you said it. please if you manage any confidential information please share us.

      thanks!!!, The rarely is NVC hasn´t any request document for begin the process. How long time take it?

      Delete
  12. F2A plz make this category Current

    ReplyDelete
  13. F2A is killing, i hate this process, dividing husband wife

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Enjoy your time - later you complain my wife is always on my case. so enjoy this time

      Delete
  14. How about V Visa for children of US citizens/ I-130 F1/to stay legally with family in US?
    This Visa is possible on this year ?
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No never in life time

      Delete
  15. Anybody know when f2a become current

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. After one year in 2016

      Delete
  16. What does today's executive action mean to EB2 India? Can it become current?

    ReplyDelete
  17. My priority date is July 2012 for f1 does anyone have any idea of the waiting period

    ReplyDelete

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