Saturday, December 21, 2013

EB2 India: FY 2014 Movement

If you missed the original two part blog post about EB2 India, please see below:

Part 1: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html
Part 2: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014-part2.html

Here is the expected visa bulletin movement for fiscal year 2014 for EB2 India.

February 2014: 15 Nov 2004
March 2014: 15 Nov 2004
April 2014: 15 Nov 2004
May 2014: 15 Nov 2004
June 2014: 15 Nov 2004
July 2014 - September 2014: Around February 2009

Why is the dates going to stay at this date till around June 2014? The main reason is the supply of visa numbers are fixed by congress to around 2800 per country per year in EB2 category. This comes out to 2800/12 = 233 visas per month for EB2 India.

Though the supply of visa numbers is fixed, the demand is not. Due to EB3 to EB2 porting (where people in EB3 category can "upgrade" to EB2), there continues to be high demand for EB2 visas.

Based on the math above, if more than 233 people are upgrading from EB3 to EB2 category every month, the dates for EB2 will not move at all. If demand is much higher than 233 per month, than the dates could retrogress further.

The only thing preventing dates from retrogressing further is if it gets spillovers from other categories. EB category is expected to receive around 10,000 visa spillovers from FB category. Since the dates for EB2 china has already reached 2008, most (if not all) of the visa spillovers should go to EB2 India.

Based on EB I-485 pending statistics, there are over 12,000 pending application in EB3 till Sept 2004 and about 700 pending application in EB2 till Sept 2004. This means there is a high chance that dates will move forward for EB2 India between July 2014 and September 2014 visa bulletins.

One of the "advantages" of holding the dates at November 2004 for next few months for EB2 India is preadjudication. This means that for most EB2 people who had already submitted their I485 application, USCIS would be working on their application and preadjudicating them. This means their I485 application would be approved and is simply waiting for a visa number to be available. So whenever the dates move forward from November 2004, these people with preadjudicated cases will be in front of the line.

After the dates move forward and new people who start applying (including those who upgrade from EB3) will be in the "back" of the line - since the processing time for EB I-485 application is currently 4+ months.

Per the latest update, there is less demand for EB5 China. This means more visas will flow to EB2.

If you are not familiar with spillovers, it means visas unused in other categories will flow "upwards" as follows:

EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 -- > EB2 --> EB2 (India + China) --> EB3

However, EB2 India and China will use up all possible spillovers, so there wont be any spillovers to EB3 category. This is one of the reason many in EB3 are waiting for over 10 years and are eager to upgrade from EB3 to EB2 (from all countries - not just India).

We recommend checking the demand data and I-485 pending inventory every month to get an idea of current demand and hence how much visa would be available. This would give a general idea of how further the dates will move forward each month.

Also there are many immigration bills introduced in congress this year to fix these issues. You can view a list of them here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/collection-of-latest-immigration-bills.html

Also See:

EB Category To Receive 10,000 Additional Visas: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/11/eb-category-to-receive-10000-additional.html

79 comments:

  1. Find it totally Ridiculous when EB gets spillover from FB category because DOS ain't doing their job properly and FB is retrogressed as well. I just hope DOS does their job properly and congress takes action with respect to this.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Amazon....

    Thanks for giving all the insights for next year and your articles have been spot on, I regularly visit your site and read most of your articles. Great Job!

    I have quick question, will you be able to predict dates beyond July 2014? I mean is there a chance for the date to move to March 2009 in Aug or Sep 2014 bulletin?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is possible for dates to move to March 2009 later. We will have to wait for the latest data from USCIS to identify the actual demand to estimate the dates. They should release the latest I-485 pending inventory soon.

      Delete
    2. Hi amazon,

      is it possible the dates move to may 2 2011 in aug/sept 2014? please let me know

      Delete
    3. Amazon, what is your estimate for PD Sep 2010 EB2 India?

      Delete
    4. Based on current data from USCIS/DOS, it is currently not possible to estimate dates in 2010.

      Delete
  3. Hi
    Why do you think that date will jump to Feb 2009 in July 2014. based on your 233 visa per month logic , should it reach that date. ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's not just based on that. Amazon is including the expected spillovers that have to be allotted by the last quarter of the fiscal year (July-September, 2014). They are going to number in the thousands since the other countries won't use them, and they will go to waste if they're not allocated to oversubscribed countries by the end of the fiscal year.

      Delete
    2. Yup, without spillovers, EB2 India may not move at all. For spillover details, please see the link below:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/11/eb-category-to-receive-10000-additional.html

      Delete
    3. Hi Amazon, My PD is June 18th,2009 EB2I
      Is there any reason to believe that there will not be any spillovers in July2014 to help EB2? Thanks you!

      Delete
    4. Sorry Amazon- Typo- My PD is June 18th 2008, EB2I. Missed it by a few days last year.
      Thanks!

      Delete
    5. EB2 India should receive spillovers for both EB and FB categories. What I meant is if they do not receive any spillovers, dates may not move since porting is using up all quota set for EB2 India category.

      Delete
  4. Thanks for the insightful blog.. Any thoughts for posting a similar blog for F2A category??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi anonymous, I will add a blog post for f2a category soon.

      Delete
  5. Hi amazon!pls.consider also the eb3 phils.thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3 Philippines is expected to move forward at around 3-6 weeks per month. There could be a big jump around May 2014. I will add a short blog post about EB3 Philippines. Thank you for the suggestion. :)

      Delete
    2. Thank you so much Amazon God bless you!!

      Delete
  6. Hi Amazon,

    Any chance for PD June 2010 in 2014 year? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data from USCIS/DOS, it is currently not possible to estimate dates in 2010.

      Delete
  7. Hi Amazon,

    One realistic question. If the porting from EB3 to EB2 India keeps continuing then EB2 India NEVER EVER move. And its waste of time analyzing the dates.

    Do you agree

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, the porting is currently using up EB2 India quota of 2,802 visas. Hence the DOS has retrogressed dates to 2004 to reduce porting.

      They will then move dates again around July 2014 after receiving spillovers from EB and FB category, This will give the original EB2 applicants opportunity to have their applications approved. Else if they do not retrogressed dates, EB3 India with PD from 2004 to 2007 porting to EB2 India will use up all spillovers also.

      Delete
    2. Its flaw in the system. How the heck EB3 can jump into EB2 and kick the EB2 people.
      (I know we can't do much expect curse it on web !!)

      Delete
    3. Because numbnut they are more than qualified for EB2 since they have been waiting for 10+ years something which cannot be said for original eb2 applicants

      Delete
  8. Hello Amazon,

    First off, kudos to you for yet another super-informative and insightful post.

    You've mentioned 'preadjudication' in your article. How does it actually work? I understand that it refers to the USCIS working behind the scenes on cases that have already been filed but are currently waiting for the availability of a visa number. But does the outcome of preadjudication show up on the case status in any way? If the USCIS wants to issue an RFE or something like that based on the preadjudication process, would they still do it while the case is waiting for a visa to become available?

    Thanks again!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Anonymous. Preadjudicated cases do not show up on the website status page. If you call USCIS, some L2 officer may give out that detail.

      Also, USCIS can issue RFE even though the applications have been preadjudicated earlier by USCIS.

      Delete
  9. Amazon, what is your prediction for PD Sep 2010 EB2 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data from USCIS/DOS, it is currently not possible to estimate dates in 2010.

      Delete
  10. Hi, Thanks for all the analysis at least I see some light at the end of the canal, how will you know if your case is preadjudicated?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can call USCIS. Level 2 officer can provide that information.

      Delete
    2. will they actually tell us if the I-485 is approved and is pending for the visa #

      Delete
  11. Hello Amazon,
    My PD is 17th Feb 2009 EB2 India. Is it possible will get GC this year?
    Thank You

    ReplyDelete
  12. Amazon, what is your prediction for PD NOV 2010 EB2 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data from USCIS, it is not possible to estimate that far.

      Delete
  13. Hi Amazon, my pd date is Jan 2010 India , any chance when it will be current. What do you recommend , I am in USA and still going for Consular processing. Should I go for I485 only?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are inside US, you can only file I-485 application. If you are locate outside US, you can go for consular processing.

      On right side of this page, there are many blog post which will be useful (I-485 FAQ, NVC FAQ, etc).

      Delete
  14. Hi, I have a PD of Dec 2009. Do I stand a chance this year or will I have to wait till 2015?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, EB2 India may not reach that date in fiscal year 2014.

      Delete
  15. As per DOL there is a drop of 36% in PERM approval in 2013 over previous year. Does this imply that there will be more spillover for EB2I this fiscal year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. who really gives a damn about EB 2 I or those multinational managers in EB1.... lol

      Delete
    2. Yeah, if there is lower demand in other categories, it mean there will be more spillover available for EB2 India category.

      Delete
  16. Hi,

    Thank you for the informative article! My priority date is Apr 2010. I got my I 140. Can I apply for I-485 even though my priority date is not current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Currently USCIS will only accept the I-485 if PD is current. Please see this blog post:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
  17. AmaZon. Do you know when can you estimate for sept 2009?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will have to wait for some more data before estimating that date.

      Delete
  18. Hi, I have a PD of May 2007 EB3 India. Do I stand a chance this year or will I have to wait till 2015? for dates to move.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  19. Can i have the expected visa bulletin movement for fiscal year 2014 for EB3 India

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi Amazon, what is your prediction for PD Feb 2009 EB2 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a possibility it could reach that in FY 2014.

      Delete
  21. Hi amazon...what about FTJ coming under E2 category? My pd is dec2007...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi amazon, can you pls reply to my query....

      Delete
    2. Yeah EB2 India is expected to move ahead of that date in FY 2014.

      Delete
    3. Thanks...but can u predict which month it can move ?

      Delete
  22. Amazon, What are chances of March 2009 EB2 in 2014 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a possibility it could reach that in FY 2014.

      Delete
    2. My PD is APR 2009, EB2 India. Do you think I stand a chance this year ? Please advice.

      Delete
  23. Hi, My PD is apr 2010 and have 485 pending. So is there a possibility that my application is preadjudicated. And if it is does it mean that that my application can get approved even if the dates dont move till 2010

    ReplyDelete
  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Amazon,
    I have read your article on when the dates would move again for EB2 India.
    My PD is March, 2008 and was wondering if there is a chance that the date could move past that in May or June, 2014?

    Thanks for your time!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi Amazon,
    Ours is July 23rd 2009 EB2 India - Any chance it can become current in 2014 if not than by when in 2015?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  27. MY PD is Oct 2008 EB2 india . Will i see the date current in FY 2014

    ReplyDelete
  28. HI Amazon,

    Can you please let me know if EB2 July 2009 PD will get in this Year 2014?

    ,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, It is highly unlikely this PD becoming current during FY2014.

      Good Luck.

      Delete
  29. Being Sarcastic here ..why all these comments resembles to Astrology Blog ??
    I am XX years old, Male, living @ XX place... when i will get married or when i will meet my love or job ??

    If these predictions makes you all happy then by all means ..lets continue ...atleast we are happy because of a hope.

    My 2 cents to everyone .. please stop asking about the specific cases or individual cases ... Lets discuss about the current situation, any alternatives or any other opportunity ....any improvement ....all those things would help ..rather than asking My PD is XX and when I will get my GC.

    Again, i am not trying to be negative over here .. Please just be constructive and encourage others ....

    ReplyDelete
  30. Amazon,
    I have a question and hope the answer would be helpful to others as well:

    Say, the applicant applied for I-485. After a while, the dates are retrogressed. Then eventually, when the dates are current instead of GC, there is an RFE issued for I-485 (AOS) ... and the applicant / attorney reply to the RFE in a timely fashion... Meanwhile, the dates get retrogressed again.

    The question is: Does the applicant need to wait until the priority dates move again to current to receive the GC or will the applicant receive the GC because the officer looked into the case already in the past.

    Your answer is very much appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In your example, if OP has been issued RFE, it is a good thing. This means VO is actively looking in OP file, If RFE is responded in time, the application will be approved. A visa no is reserved(most likely) prior to issuing RFE.

      HTH.

      Delete
  31. My priority date is Dec_2011 any idea how long will it take to get my GC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Without immigration reform may be another 3 years bc traditionally EB2I had had 4 to 5 yr wait time.

      Delete
  32. My priority date is May 10th 2007, EB2 category. I filed my application in April 2012. Since then I received 2 RFEs mostly about my employment. We replied to both. Even though my PD was not current I still got the interview call on 2nd May. The interview was focussed on the marriage and employment (My wife is a beneficiary). Our attorney was surprised that we received an interview call since our PD had not been current since last december. We were then asked to have biometrics done again since our old fingerprints were expire because they were more than a year old (God knows how are 'fingerprints' supposed to expire). The visa officer said that everything is fine except for the fact that our biometrics have expired and the PD is not current otherwise she would have issued us the GC right away. Anyways we are now done with all that and latest news I received from USCIS is that they transferred our case to a new office for further processing. When do you think we might get our GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, the right question is not 'when do I get our GC' but it is 'when do you think our priority date might be current'? Based on reading your blog it seems like we should expect that to happen next month. Is that correct?

      Delete
  33. https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/using-administrative-reform-allow-eb2eb3-beneficiaries-their-i-140-approved-file-i-485-and-apply-ead/c120syh5

    ReplyDelete
  34. Amazon,
    Just as predicted EB2 India priority dates moved forward in the July Bulletin. Is it too early to ask for: any prediction on what will be the priority date after the end of fiscal year 2014 for EB2 India.
    If there is as retrogression, how far back will it be. Can you shed some light based on your demand data analysis?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Anyone on this blog EB3 to EB2 India porters that has filed I-485 last year or prior to that received GC approvals as this category moved forward to 1 Sept 2008? Seems like Strait EB2 India candidates are getting approved but no porters so far. Please reply.

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

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3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum


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