Sunday, April 14, 2013

EB3 Category: Future Visa Bulletin Movement

We have received a LOT of questions on EB3 ROW movements. So we decided to create a post exclusive to all EB3 categories and help answer many questions.

For EB2 category movement (Aug - Dec 2013), please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html

For USCIS/DOS prediction for Aug-Oct 2013 VB, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/uscis-prediction-for-august-to-october.html

Q. Why did the dates move 5-7 months in many EB3 categories?
A. As we mentioned in few earlier posts, visa allocation is simply a matter of supply and demand. The supply is fixed at around 140,000 per year + any spillover from FB category (which is 18,000 this year).

The demand however is NOT fixed. It changes every day and due to many factors involved, the future demand cannot be predicted (maybe except that it will keep growing). Based on latest PERM application filings, demand is 20% higher than last year.

The I-485 pending inventory gives an idea about how much demand is currently there for various EB categories. It does not include consular processing cases which is about 25%-30%  (changes every year).

Currently the I-485 pending inventory has data for EB3 categories till Aug 2007 only. Since EB3ROW reached July 2007 in April 2013 VB, USCIS/DOS has no idea what the demand is after Aug 2007. Hence to find out this demand USCIS/DOS has started moving dates forward.

Q. Why are dates been moved so aggressively?
A. USCIS/DOS allocates visa quarterly. EB3ROW gets 40,040 of 140,000 total visas. Hence every quarter it gets allotted 10,010 visas. Since USCIS/DOS do not currently know how many applicants would be filing I485 applications after Aug 2007 PD, it is creating a "pipeline" of cases. Some cases are processed faster than others by USCIS. Hence to reduce delay and make sure that all available visas are allotted by Sept 30 (end of fiscal year), it is going to aggressively move dates for next few visa bulletins.

Q. How long would USCIS/DOS continue to aggressively move dates for EB3ROW?
A. As long as it takes to allot all available visas. Rough estimate is:
May 2013 VB: 5 months
June 2013 VB: 9 months
July 2013 VB: 5-6 months (expected)
Aug & Sept VB: TBD

If USCIS receives enough cases to fill the allotted quota by (say) Aug 2013 VB, it will stop moving dates forward (or can even retrogress dates to make sure allotted visas count stays within the permissible limits).

Q. What about the processing time?
A. The current I-485 processing time at NSC is 4 months. However it is over 8 months at TSC. It is possible that the processing time in last quarter could increase for everyone due to following factors:

1. Large number of applicants in EB3ROW category (12,000+)
2. Large number of applicants in EB2 India due to huge EB and FB spillovers in last quarter (15,000+)
3. Due to sequester cuts, many other government department budget has been cut. As we mentioned earlier, USCIS would not be affected by sequester cuts.
4. These are in addition to thousands of application they usually process.

Q. My H1B application is expiring in few months. Should I wait or renew H1?
A. Depending on dates, we would recommend renewing H1B application. If your PD is after Aug 2007 then you would not currently have EAD. The current I485 processing time is 4-8+ months from the date you file I-485 application. If your H1B expires before the I485 is processed, then you would be out of status. Hence it is recommend to renew the H1 application.

If you have EAD approved (which takes about 3 months from the date I485 is filed) then you can fall back on EAD if H1B expires. Remember some applications take longer than others.

Did you know: The I485 pending inventory have about 27 cases pending which were filed in 1997.

Q. What about EB3 India and EB3 Philippines?
A. According to I485 pending inventory, USCIS already knows the demand till Aug 2007. Since the demand is already known, USCIS/DOS can accurately predict how far each of these countries would move in the next few VB.

EB3 Philippines have pretty much the same demand every month (about 300). Hence it is likely to move at rate of one week per month. It could move by 2-3 weeks when the FB spillover is applied.

EB3 India also have demand of about 800 per month. However many people are porting from EB3 to EB2 at rate of around 300 per month. Hence EB3 India would continue to move forward at rate of 1-2 weeks every month.

Remember each country in EB categories can get maximum of 7% of total visas. Hence EB3 Philippines can get max of 7% of 40,040 = 2802 per YEAR.

Q. What about EB3 Mexico and EB3 China?
A. Based on current available data,  EB3 Mexico and EB3 China would continue to have same cutoff dates as EB3ROW. It is likely than EB3 China would move ahead of EB2 China in few months.

Q. What would happen in October 2013 VB?
A. October 2013 VB would be start of new fiscal year. Most likely the forward movement in EB3ROW would stop and it is likely that dates could retrogress (if demand is very high from May 2013 to September 2013).

The reason is that in October 2013 VB, USCIS/DOS can only give out 10,040 visas for that quarter in EB3ROW. Hence if demand is much higher than this supply, then dates could retrogress. If demand is less than 10,040, then dates would continue to move ahead.

Update (May 12):

Based on latest data, EB3 ROW could move between 5-6 months in July 2013 VB. EB3 Mexico and EB3 China are also expected to move by 5-6 months.

Update (May 17):

Q. What would happen if EB3 ROW (Mexico and China) retrogresses after filing I-485 application?
A. These categories could retrogress if demand is more than supply (which is likely). USCIS and DOS is building a "pipeline" of cases to get a good estimate of pending demand for this quarter and next quarter. If dates retrogress you still have two advantages: (a) You will have EAD/AP card (if you included those forms during application and (b) your case could be preadjudicated.

Even if EB3ROW retrogress, it would start moving forward from fiscal year 2014 (which starts from Oct 1, 2013). So your PD could again become current. So consider this retrogression as temporary (unlike EB2 India where demand every month continue to be more than supply due to porting from EB3 India. Currently the only way EB2 India would move forward is if it gets spillovers from other EB categories, which is likely).

Update (June 15):

Q. When is EB3 ROW (and EB3 Mexico and EB3 China) expected to move forward?
A. If it does not receive any spillovers in Sept VB, these categories should most likely start moving in Oct/Nov 2013. There is a small chance that it could either retrogress or move forward slightly in Sept VB. Please see question below.

Q. Is there a possibility of spillover from EB2 to EB3 category in FY2013?
A. Remember USCIS cannot assign visas to applicants whose PD is after the VB cutoff dates (even if there are lots of spillovers remaining). In case EB2 India cannot use (approximately 12,000+) spillovers, it will flow to EB2 China. EB2 China will use up remaining spillovers until the cutoff date for EB2 China mentioned in VB. If there are still spillovers remaining then it will flow to EB3 categories.

Due to lag in various USCIS departments, it may take some time to calculate how much visas can flow to EB3 category. If they dont identify unused spillovers before Sept 30, then these visas will be wasted. If spillovers flow to EB3 category then EB3 ROW, EB3 China and EB3 Mexico could finally move ahead in Sept VB.

Q. Is there possibility of any spillover to EB3 India?
A. If EB3 ROW is unable to use all spillovers, it will first be divided equally among all other retrogressed country upto a max  of 7%. If there are still any spillovers left, it will go to the most retrogressed country (which is EB3 India). Once EB3 India is same as EB3 Philippines, both these countries will then get equal spillovers.

Update (August 14):

As most of you know, EB3 ROW moved to July 2010 in September 2013 VB (18 months forward movement). DOS moved dates forward because USCIS did not receive enough applications that they were expecting when they had moved dates ahead few months back. In addition, since EB3ROW would not use up all available visas by Sept 30, DOS allotted remaining spillovers to EB3 India and EB3 Philippines. We had mentioned this potential spillovers in blog post above.

For EB3 ROW, Mexico and China: Most likely DOS would decide to hold dates steady in Oct and Nov VB while it builds pipeline of cases. If the demand is much higher, most countries in EB3 categories (except India and Philippines) could retrogress in Nov/Dec VB.

EB3 India and EB3 Philippines could retrogress in Oct VB if enough cases have not been approved by USCIS (compared to spillovers allotted to these categories) by Sept 30. Retrogression could occur in Nov VB (instead of Oct VB), since Oct VB would be released around Sept 10 (and they would still be processing applications and may not have enough data of pending cases with older PD).

Update (October 23):
 
Due to continued low demand in EB3 ROW and EB3 Mexico, these categories could move forward by around 10-12 months either in December 2013 or January 2014 VB.

Update (March 17, 2014):

The update below is for EB3 ROW, Mexico and China.

1. Visa is typically allocated quarterly. Since we are more than 6 months into fiscal year 2014, in theory, USCIS has already assigned 50% of total  quota of EB3 ROW. The quota for the EB3 category  is around 40,000 visas. Subtract around 2,800 for each country (India, China, etc). This leaves EB3 ROW, Mexico and China quota around 34,400.

If they have already allocated 50% of visas in last 6 months, we only have a quota of around 17,000 visas for next 6 months.

Per the latest I-485 inventory, EB3 ROW already has over 15,000 pending applications.

2. More importantly, this pending inventory is as of around January 3, 2014. In December 2013 visa bulletin, EB3 ROW date was 01OCT11. Most people with PD after that date would not appear in this latest I-485 pending inventory.

Dates for EB3 ROW in the April 2014 visa bulletin was 01OCT12. Thus thousands of people with PD between 01OCT11 and 01OCT12 do not currently appear in this pending inventory.

It is possible that the  current demand (15,000 as per I-485 inventory) + demand for applicant from 01OCT11 and 01OCT12 may be sufficient to meet the remaining available quota of around 17,000. It also does not include applicant (with PD before 01OCT11) who have not yet filed I-485 applications.

Per the earlier comments by Charles Oppenheim (head of visa office), dependents account for 55% of total demand. Hence the actual demand may be higher.

This would explain why they are slowing down (or stopping) further movement of EB3 ROW, Mexico and China.

There  is still possibility that they would move dates forward around July 2014 visa bulletin. We would have to wait for more updated data from USCIS/DOS. Retrogression cannot be ruled out based on these numbers.

If you have not done it yet, please add your case data to the GC tracker:  http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker/

If you are planning to file I-485 application or have already filed it, please also see this link:

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html


Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

155 comments:

  1. Can we expect supply will go up as purt of CIR ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would depend on what exactly is in the CIR bill.

      The CIR bill is expected to be introduced in Senate on Apr 16. For about next 2 months, they would have lots of debates and changes made to the bill. Then it would be sent to House. Again they would have debate and changes made.

      Finally both Senate and House would combine them into one bill and vote on them. We will have to wait and see what this combined bill looks like.

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    2. To update this answer, supply has increased a LOT in the current draft of the CIR bill.

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  2. Is it possible that eb3 Philippines could accelerate priority dates depending on the result of immigration reform?

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    Replies
    1. Every country in each EB category is limited to max 2802 visa per YEAR (plus any FB spillovers). So since the supply has not changed, it is likely to move forward at same pace.

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    2. EB2 categories would be getting EB spillovers from EB1, EB4 and EB5 categories also. However EB2 India (and China) is likely to use them fully and hence EB spillovers wont reach EB3 categories.

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  3. So for June or July bulletin visa Eb3 could arrive Dicember 2008?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is possible if demand is low.

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  4. In 2008 as consequence of the economic situation the demand for EB3 was low,if this is true, it will be more chance for Eb3 moves faster in 2008 visa bulletin?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, if demand is low in EB3ROW category, then dates could certainly move faster.

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  5. Hi! I have a big problem. My pd is september 2009, eb3 row. i am in h1b but I might be laid off in August. Is there any ways you can get the Ead while you find another job or waiting for I 485 to be filed? Thank you so much
    PD when do you think estimated time the vb will reach September 2009?
    Thanks. I really appreciate your answer

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. USCIS only issues EAD application when the EAD form is submitted. You can only submit this form with/after you have submitted the I-485 application. As you know the PD has to be current to file I-485 application.

      Since we currently do not know the demand between August 2007 and Sept 2009, it would be hard to give an estimated date.

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  6. Any new prediction for EB3 row forJune?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We are waiting for USCIS to release updated I-485 pending inventory data. It should hopefully be released in few days.

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  7. hello.. can you help me know when will the estimated month be for oct 31 2006 PD will be current?thanks

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    Replies
    1. Different countries have different dates.

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    2. sori was not able to specify EB3 philippines with priority date oct 31, 2006 can u help me know when will it be current.thanks again

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    3. Rough estimate is around 7 months.

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  8. hi, my priority date is 02/07/2003, on 05/24/2013 my h1b got revoked, do you think EB3 INDIA will be current soon so i can file I-485. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is likely that EB3 India could reach that date in 2-3 months based on current demand and expected spillover from FB categories.

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    2. Thanks for your response, so will it be ok if I am out of status at the time of filing I-485 will the rule of 180 days apply since the priority date will get current within 2 to 3 months.

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    3. I am not sure which 180 days rule you are referring to?

      AC21 rule allows applicants to change employers 180 days after filing I-485 application.

      One of the documents needed for filing I-485 application in employment based category is Employment Letter from your employer.

      You should not be "out of status" when applying for I-485 AOS (though there are very rare exceptions, such as if wife/children is US citizen, etc).

      I would strongly recommend talking to a professional lawyer. They can review your case in complete details and give legal guidance.

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  9. Amazon, do you have any USCIS updated I-485 pending inventory data. ? to get an idea about June bulletin movement?>

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The last I-485 pending inventory was released in Jan 2013. We don't have any updated data yet. We are hoping to have it in the next few days.

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  10. During the recession - late 2008-2011 period many people got laid off, and I believe less applications were being submitted and because of that I believe the number of application especially for EB3ROW for that period was less, therefore I am expecting this to help push the priority date forward for this category. I have a priority date of Sep 2009 and I hope to get there within the next 6 months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, me too. Mine is on Sep 2009. But, it seems to be disappointed to hear that it will stop moving in the new few months.

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    2. We have added a FAQ about that above. If it gets spillovers from EB2 category, it should start moving forward in Sept VB.

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  11. My priority date is Jul 14, 2004 eb3 India.. Could you predict my waiting time for GC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rough estimate for EB3 India to reach that date is 30-35 months. Factors affecting date movements changes every month.

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  12. Hello - Your blog is fantastic!! I am bitting my fingernails...as my PD is May 2008 EB3ROW - so according to your data I should become current within the next couple of months...let the celebrations begin! Keep up the good work!

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  13. EB3 ROW priority date 16th December 2008 - can you please give us your best estimate as to when you think we will become current? Your blog is very insightful and a great encouragement to many it seems, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3ROW should reach that date in July VB

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    2. Eb3 row w/ PD july 7 2007...how many mos. Do u think i have to wait to be current? Thanks, im from the Philippines

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    3. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

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  14. EB3 ROW priority date 29th October 2010. Can you give an approximate date when this will be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, it would be hard to give an estimate.

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  15. This is the first time I have come across your MyGCVisa blog and posts, and I am definitely adding it to my regular immigration reading.

    My compliments on your calculations, estimates, and projections. They are logical, well thought out, and correspondingly proving to be accurate. They are the most accurate I have read (except for those directly quoted from Charles Oppenheim).

    I have restricted my immigration readings to web sites, news feeds, articles, blogs by immigration lawyers, law firms, and clearly knowledgeable writers such as yourself. I have given up on participating in public / open immigration forums where anyone can claim they are an authority and post and claim just about anything.

    One closing question, was the June 2013 demand data for EB3-ROW (and EB2-ROW) unusually low compared to previous months / years (due to passing the infamous July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco date)?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for the kind words. :)

      Demand data only contains preadjudicated cases (cases which are approved and are waiting for visa numbers) from USCIS and US Consulates. If visa numbers are available to these applicants, then these cases would not show up at all in demand data.

      EB3ROW: The reason demand data it low in EB3ROW is because the dates never moved past Aug 2007. Hence these are very few REMAINING and preadjudicated cases between Jan 2005 and Aug 2007. Hence the demand is very low.

      Since the dates have moved forward and there are no more cases to be preadjudicated (since processing time is 4-8 months), the demand for EB3 ROW in July demand data could be close to zero (or maybe around 50).

      EB2 ROW: EB2 ROW has been current for a long time. Hence the demand data would continue to show very low demand (since most cases are directly approved and would not appear at all in demand data).

      Hope this helps. Let me know if you have any more questions.

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  16. My EB3C(China) priority date is Dec 26, 2009. Is it possible to submit I-485 before Oct 2013?

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    Replies
    1. We are waiting for updated data from Visa Office. EB3 China is expected to move around 5-6 months in July VB.

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    2. Hi, My priority date ROW dec 2009? Can you give me an estimate of when My date will be current?thank you!!

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    3. If you are in EB2 category, you are already current.

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    4. I am in EB3 category.

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    5. We will have to wait and see how much demand USCIS received from May 1. Once USCIS releases the I-485 pending inventory update, we can get a good estimate of how far dates could move.

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  17. On your May 12 update, is the Philippines EB3 row included in the 5-6 months jump? It's sad to see that it only moves a week these past months. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The expected 5-6 months forward movement is for EB3 ROW, Mexico and China only.

      The demand from EB3 Philippines is currently very high.

      ROW = Rest Of World (All countries except India, China, Mexico and Philippines).

      Delete
  18. As usual India is oversubscribed and is causing headaches for every other category, the fraudulent movement from eb3 to eb2 is just one example of how they do their best to circumvent waiting. I certainly hope the per country caps are kept in place, if they don't every other category can say good bye for many years of any chance of progressing in their particular category.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. USCIS actually allows this porting from EB3 to EB2. Bachelor + 5 years is considered equivalent to Advanced degree.

      Please see this link:
      http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/

      If you suspect fraud, you should report it to USCIS. They are committed to fighting fraud if people report it.

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    2. There's no where to report it. It just isn't a matter of having degree+5 years, the job vacancy must also require this level of skill and pay accordingly. Many companies, including mine - falsely create jobs artifically inflate wages so that people (Indians) can move from EB3 to EB2. At first I was annoyed, but as an EB3 er, I'm actually happy now because all it's doing is slowing down EB2 for the greedy Indians and opening up more visas in EB3.

      Delete
  19. Hello Amazon. My question is, there seems to be a lot of unused visas in the EB1, 2, 4 & 5 categories for EB-Philippines. Does this mean they will start trickling down to EB3 now that there are only 3 months left in the fiscal year? And will these unused visas be allocated EXCLUSIVELY for EB3-Philippines, or will they be shared to other another retrogressed country like India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB spillover rules are little different. The flow is EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

      When the spillover reaches EB2 category, it would be first consumed by EB2 India. Once dates for EB2 India is same as EB2 China, then both EB2 India and China would consume spillover equally.

      As along as all countries in EB2 is not current, EB3 category would not get any EB spillovers.

      FB spillover rules are different and EB3 Philippines would get 361 extra visas this year. Please see this article for more details:
      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html

      Delete
  20. Hi, and thank you for all that you do. I am EB3 ROW with Priority Date of July 2009. When can I expect this date to become current? Thank you!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We are waiting for updated data from Visa Office. It should hopefully be out soon.

      Delete
  21. When is it expected for the Philippines to catch up on the big leaps? My husband is in H1 status and we can't go back home until we get our greencard. It's been years since we last saw both of our families. Is it a bad idea if he will switch from EB3 to EB2? Your blog is very helpful, thanks in advance!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just to add,our PD is June 2009.

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    2. EB3 Philippines is current moving (as you know) at 1 week every month. So it could take a very long time to reach that date. Porting from EB3 to EB2 would be the best option for you. It will also free up visas for other people in EB3 category.

      Delete
  22. I am an Indian national with pd 2007 .i wants to change my maiden name in my passport because of marriage ,my question is will it affect my prospects with uscis ? Let me know the procedures for this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For procedure to change name, you can call USCIS to ask them. Their contact details are on the right side of this page.

      If you change name, it might take little longer to do name check (since they would have to check two names). But typically it should not take much longer.

      Delete
  23. Hi there,

    First of all thanks a lot for the great work in regards to this website.
    My PD is December 9, 2009 country Pakistan.
    What can I expect (estimate timeline) for my PD to be current?

    Any suggestions, comments would be appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this link:
      www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  24. i am from Philippines eb3 w/ pd of jan 3, 2007, in your rough estimation when will this pd be current? ... some of eb3 applicants here was abandoned by their petitioner they were not able to continue with the process, will there be a significant change in the movement of vb because of it? how is it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this link:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      If demand is less in EB3 Philippines then the dates could move much faster.

      Delete
    2. the site u gave cannot estimate eb3 category.. i have received my packet 3(eb3 phils pd jan 3, 2007)last week..i think eb3 phils is moving not as slow as some say.. my honest opinion ...do u think by the end of this year ( december 2013 my pd will get current.. or early next year.. or late next year?..

      Delete
    3. I apologize for the delay in the calculator. We are working on optimizing the algorithm for EB2 and EB3 categories (all countries). It should be ready in few days.

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    4. rn el your PD is current now.

      Delete
  25. What happens after the immigration reform has been approved? Any chances for the eb3 Philippines to move faster?

    ReplyDelete
  26. What is the step to take once your pd becomes current? Apply for adjustment of status? What all documents do you need to present to the gov.?

    Thank you so much.

    ReplyDelete
  27. I am in EB3 (India), with the PD of Jun-2008, when would I expect my PD is current approx.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current date, it would not be possible to estimate that far.

      Delete
  28. I think it's quite funny, that all these greedy Indians jumped from EB3 to EB2 (many of them under false jobs - created specifically for the purpose of porting them), and now it has seriously backlogged them in both EB2 and EB3. Meanwhile, the ROW is full steam ahead. Keep jumping from EB3 to EB2 India, and you'll clear up even more ROW spaces for us.

    ReplyDelete
  29. amazon.. i have been trying ur calculator but u r currently updating eb3. can u pls let me know when will nov 1 2006 pd be current?thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It should be ready in few days. :)

      Delete
  30. Eb3 philippines PD july 7, 2007...can u pls Give me a rough estimate as to how many mos. Do i have to possibly wait for my PD to be current? I'd reli appreciate it. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  31. My PD date is Jan 2010 under ROW EB3. Can i expect this to be available in the near future?

    ReplyDelete
  32. you think they will reach priority date august 2009 for EB3 ROW soon?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi

    My husband is H1 b our PD is August 22 2011 EB 3 ROW can you please predict when we become current.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  34. Hi, My PD is July 17, 2009 ROW EB3. Any idea, when it is going to be current.

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  35. Hi my pd is dec.2007 EB3 philippines. Just want to know when approx it wud become current.tnx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  36. Hi. Just want to ask if it is ok not to change last names after getting married. I don't want to delay the process of my case under eb-3 philippines but i would like to include my husband to my petition as well. Any advise? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, you and your husband can have completely different names. If you change names now, USCIS would have to check two different names.

      Delete
  37. Good morning,

    I am in EB3 ROW Category. My priority date is January 27, 2009. The cutoff date shown in the July bulletin is January 01,2009. The bulletin mentions that the visa availibility in the coming months (August-October) will have no additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. How long do you think it will be on hold? It is very frustrating that they are holding the cutoff date when I am only 26 days away of being current!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I feel your pain adriana...I am September 2009 and was hoping the steady movement of 5-6 months would continue till October bulletin and make me current. So close but yet so far. It hurts!

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    2. i am frustrated too our PD is March 2009 and I hope that it starts moving again soon,or at least in Oct.2013 with the new fiscal year

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    3. It is likely to start moving in Nov 2013 VB. Since it takes time to find out how many applicants have filed I-485 application, DOS is holding dates steady.

      If the demand is much higher, EB3 ROW could slightly retrogress in Sept VB.

      Delete
    4. I hope that it does sooner than Nov 2013 but, hey I have been waiting sooooooo long (since 2005) that now Nov is like saying I will see you tomorrow :)

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    5. LOL. Imagine the person with PD 01JAN09. They missed this by one day.

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    6. Thanks Amazon, I appreciate your time and help. Since I thought that I would be current for July, I went ahead and scheduled an appointment with the doctor to have my medical examination done. You have said that EB3 ROW will start to move in November again. My priority date is January 27/09, less than a month away from the current cut off date. I have read that the medical examination is good for a year and my appointment is tomorrow. Do you think that my priority date will be current before the medical examination expires (which would be June 11/2014)? I really appreciate your advise.

      Delete
    7. Anonymus,

      Yes, it is a pain...I even had my medical examination appointment set up already! I don't know now if I should go or cancel it...

      Delete
    8. Hi Adriana, I would recommend going for I-693 medical exam tomorrow. Typically it is valid for one year. However USCIS have many times increased the validity of this form for two years (when PD is not current).

      So you should be fine. Also remember if dates start moving in Nov 2013 (based on rough estimate), the current I-485 processing time is 4-8+ months (depending on which service center the application goes to).

      Delete
  38. We cannot calculate, there is no category for Eb3 philippines....;(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It should be ready by June 11 (or earlier).

      Delete
  39. Hello Amazon, where do you see the movement for EB3 Row, can we expect further movement or will retrogress, my PD is april 2009 Eb3 Row

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It could start moving forward in Nov VB.

      Delete
  40. Any idea about f4 2005 India?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
    2. With the current immigration reform being tackled in the senate, if this bill passed and become a law what are the chances of eb3 philippines with priority 2009 to be current? Or will it lessen the waiting time?

      Delete
    3. In current draft of Senate CIR bill, there are no country caps. Only EB3 category. So it should move much faster.

      Please see this:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/cir-bill-s744-border-security-economic.html

      Delete
    4. Hi fellow Amazon and fellow bloggers I need your help in making a crucial decision. My priority date is SEPTEMBER 2009 EB3ROW. The client I am working at has offered me a fulltime position. They are also willing to sponsor my green card. Do you think I should go for this offer or should I wait till my priority date is current. With which option do you think I will get my green card faster. I am also eligible for EB2,so if I go with fulltime position with client then I will have them to file in EB2.

      Delete
    5. Could you kindly post this question in the forum:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum

      We will help you there :)

      Delete
  41. my PD is 11/20/2006. EB3 Philippines. the calculator says i'll be current by November. what is the probability of a retrogression before I become current. it's already my 2nd H1B and this gets me anxious.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I also am eligible for EB2 if I can find an employer who will petition me. so I guess that's also a decision I need to consider

      Delete
    2. The possibility of retrogression in EB3 Phil is currently very low.

      Yes, you can also upgrade to EB2. But that could take more time (and money) since you have to start from scratch.

      You can extend your H1 indefinitely as long as I-485 is pending.

      Delete
    3. Thank you Amazon. A question of a different subject tough...this website although I've been checking it out quite recently (2 months), is very informative and I can see you put quite an effort on it, what do you do? are you an immigration lawyer or a consultant?

      Delete
    4. I like to help people as much as possible :)

      Delete
    5. That's very noble. Thank you

      Delete
  42. Hi Amazon,

    My EB3 has been approved and PD is May 2011. I filed my promotional EB2 from the same employer. Unfortunately, the labor got denied. I am in dilemma now that should I file for new EB2 labor with the same employer? My PD for EB3ROW is stil 28 months away. Do you think should I just wait for EB3 date to get current?
    Plus, if the immigration got passed in the current form would my PD for Eb3ROW might retrogress?

    Thanks for help in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should talk to the company lawyer about this. They would know why USCIS denied the application and can respond with new data.

      CIR bill increases the available visas in EB category.

      Delete
  43. Hi,
    pd was on sept 29,2006 eb3 philippines im wondering if when will i receive my GC..

    Thanks..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
    2. thanks amazon..

      Delete
  44. I am EB3 India PD Oct2006. With I-140 Approved and 485 filed. How long to wait?
    My previous employer had filed labor in 2002 and approved in RIR. New co filed new EB3 labor in 2006 Oct. After 7 years still waiting. Can I Use previous labor of 2002 now to update the PD?

    If not what is the wait? Your calculator show Jul2018.... that is too long. any miracle.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should talk to your company lawyer about if you can use previous RIR labor.

      Delete
    2. I thought you cant apply your 485 until your PD is current. How come you were able to apply 485? Is your 485 pending or approved as well? Have you received you EAD? My PD is Dec 2009 and My lawyer never applied 485 for me because he said I have to wait for my PD to be current. Is that true? Thanks

      Delete
    3. Around July 2007, all EB categories were made as Current. Hence a lot of people were able to file I-485 application during that time.

      Delete
  45. Hi amazon,

    I'm glad i found a site like this..i used the calculator thing on your site it was awesome and it said that my priority is on current.However, how would i know the date or days within this month would i receive my GC?. Thanks in an Advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If your priority date is current, you should file I-485 application. Please see this link:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
  46. EB3 ROW priority date is 29th April 2011 - can you please give us your best estimate as to when you think we will become current?

    ReplyDelete
  47. Hi Amazon,

    What are your thoughts, from EB3 ROW perspective, on the latest I-485 pending inventory released today? I saw a jump of around 1800 cases for 2003 priority dates, which seems kind of odd. Any ideas on why did that happen?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good catch. I did not see that. :)

      Delete
    2. That is odd. It looks like USCIS found cases from 2003 which they didnt process yet. This happened with other category a while back.

      Delete
  48. Hi Amazon, based on the latest published pending inventory. China (mainland EB3) cases have dropped significantly. Does that mean the PD will move forward soon?

    Thanks for all the great work to us!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, it moved forward by 18 months.

      Delete
  49. Hi Any idea what is the total number of outstanding application for EB3 India at the end of each year? So what is the outstanding number for 2004, or 5,6,7? So lets say for eb3 India to move to Jan 2007; how many visas need to be released?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can find it in I-485 pending inventory. You can find the link to it in URL below:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/visa-bulletin/visa-bulletin-august-2013.aspx

      Delete
  50. I have an approve I 140 from my previous employer in EB3 category my PD is Nov 3 2005 Iam currently in India nad have also got a Masters from a recogonised US university. I have left my employer though. Can I port my case from EB3 to EB2 without an employer or should I wait for my PD to become current and apply for I 824 and get my green card. Can someone tell how to apply for I 824.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Hi, my wife's eb3 PD (may 2006) became current last year. Her employer enrolled her application in premium processing.She received an email from NVC stating a new PD of aug 2013. What happened to her original PD of may 2006 which was already current? If her employer made a mistake by using premium processing, can she still recover her original PD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should call USCIS and tell them to correct this.

      Delete
  52. The GC calculator directed me to this page, and I don't see any information about why the dates might retrogress .. no update after November VB. I understand you are very busy, and I really appreciate what you are doing to help us all here, it's just I am a bit nervous as my PD is Oct 15th 2011 EB3ROW! Can you give me any hope here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because DOS mentioned in November demand data that they have received sufficient demand to fill the pipeline.

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/november-2013-demand-data.html

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/analysis-november-2013-visa-bulletin.html

      Delete
    2. I have updated the blog post. EB3 ROW could move 10-12 minths in the next two visa bulletin.

      Delete
    3. WOW that's a huge jump. Mine is Aug 27, 2012. Amazon, do you think I will be current sometime next year?

      Delete
    4. We will have to wait for I-485 pending inventory to see the latest demand.

      Delete
  53. Amazon,
    My priority date could be current next month. 10/29/2010. EB3 row. What is the processing time for I 485?

    ReplyDelete
  54. Hi Amazon, If EB3Row advanced with 10 months (I hope) .. I will be current, but it might retrogress after that, so I need to make sure I am ready to file as soon as I know I am current, is there any preparations I could do to be ready? thanks a million.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Hi Amazon,
    Thank you for giving us all that hope, The question might be dull, but I am not really an expert. As far as I understood, the demand on EB3ROW is still not high, and you said the dates might move forward for 10-12 months. That's a great news, but as you said this might happen, and might not.

    My question is, this at least means that the dates most probably won't retrogress below Oct10, correct? It's highly unlikely that the demand will increase all of a sudden on this dates, correct?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is not likely but possible; especially since there is around 15 days remaining for the next visa bulletin.

      Delete
  56. Hi Amazon, EB3 China, do you expect it to advance in Jan FY14 along with ROW?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should have the same dates as EB3 ROW in January VB.

      Delete
  57. I think these rules are they meant to keep the really deserving ones out of the system.
    It is a broken system, better fix it than be sorry!!.

    ReplyDelete
  58. My pd is May 18, 2011 EB2 China. what do you think if I change to EB3?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can certainly port from EB2 China to EB3 China.

      Delete
  59. Eb3 Philippines moved at least 5-8 weeks in recent visa bulletin. Will it continue to jump 5-8 weeks until the end of fiscal year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it should continue to move forward. It is also possible that this category would have a big jump in next few months.

      Delete
  60. Hi! My Pd is august 1, 2007. Can you estimate how long will it take for it to be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are in EB3 ROW, the PD is already current.

      Delete
  61. Hi, what are your predictions for June - September 2014 for EB3 (REST OF THE WORLD)? My priority date is May 17th 2013 and I was wondering if I have any chance that it could become current over the next 5-6 month. Thank you!

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum