Sunday, June 16, 2013

EB2 India, China, ROW: Visa Bulletin Movement August - December 2013 - Part 1 of 2

For part 2 of this article, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014-part2.html
 
We have received many questions on EB2 India Visa Bulletin movement. So we decided to create two-part post exclusive to all EB2 categories and help answer many questions.

For EB3 Categories Future Visa Bulletin movement (May to Oct 2013), please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/eb3-visa-bulletin-predictions.html (updated June 15).

For USCIS/DOS prediction for Aug-Oct 2013 VB, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/uscis-prediction-for-august-to-october.html

Fiscal Year 2013:

Every year EB categories is assigned 140,000 visas. In addition, they receive any visas unused by FB category in the previous fiscal year. In FY 2013, EB received 18,000 unused visas from FB category.

FB spillover rules: All categories and countries will get equal distribution up to a maximum limit of 7% per country (please see link above).

EB spillover rules: EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

When EB spillover flows to EB2 categories, all countries in EB2 will get a max of 7% country limit. Remaining unused visas will then flow across to most retrogressed country in EB2 (which is India and China). However, since EB2 China is at 2008 and EB2 India is at 2004, all of the remaining spillovers will first go to EB 2 India until its cutoff date is same as EB2 China (Aug 2008).

After that both countries will get equal spillovers. If there is any spillovers left (which will happen when dates for all EB2 countries are current or EB2 cannot use all spillovers), then it will flow to EB3 category.

EB2 ROW: EB2 ROW is expected to remain current in FY 2013. It should also remain current from Oct - Dec 2013. However from January 2014 - March 2014, if demand is high, EB2 ROW could retrogress slightly. If EB2 ROW retrogress there is a high chance that EB2 India and EB2 China could become unavailable. This is because India and China have the highest demand. Hence they would be the first two countries to use up available visas; thus making any more visas unavailable. Remember DOS allocates 140,000 visas by every quarter (about 27%).

EB2 China: Demand from EB2 China is much lower than EB2 India. Hence it could continue to move around 6 - 9 weeks per month from August to December 2013 and finally move ahead of EB3 China.

EB2 India: Expected spillover to EB2 India in FY2013 is around 12,750-14,110 visas. This could potentially move dates to around January 2008 - April 2008. Please note that this spillover is entirely due to 18,000 visas spillover from FB categories. If there was no FB spillovers, EB2 India could have retrogressed further.

Q. Will EB2 India dates move immediately to Feb/Apr 2008 in August VB?
A. DOS (Charles Oppenheim) can move dates in two ways: (a) Move date immediately to Feb/Apr 2008 in Aug VB (b) Use a staggered approach. First move date to around January 01, 2008 in Aug VB. Wait and see the demand from both EB2 India applicants and applicants porting from EB3 India. If demand is within estimated range, then move it to around Feb/Apr 208 in Sept VB.

The second scenario (moving date to 01/01/08 in Aug VB is most likely).

As per July demand data, there are more than 41,000 preadjudicated cases in EB3 India till Aug 2007. So porting rate plays a big role in movement of EB2 India in Sept VB. If demand is very high from porting applicants, DOS could slightly retrogress dates in Sept VB for EB2 India. Porting is and is likely to continue to be a wildcard in EB2 India category.

Update (June 27): EB2 India is expected to reach Jan 1, 2008 in the Aug VB.

Q. Would all spillovers go to applications filed in USCIS service center (TSC, NSC, etc)?
A. Typically 15% of total spillovers will also go to consular processing cases in US embassy. This leaves around 85% of total spillovers assigned to applications in USCIS service centers. Remember in some categories, around 40% of total visas go to consular processing cases.

Q. If priority date is current, would I-485 be immediately approved?
A. It depends if your case has been preadjudicated. If yes, there is a higher chance that I-485 could be approved in one week after dates have been current. However, USCIS (at their discretion) can still issue RFE for (a) latest employment letter (b) new biometric appointment for latest finger prints  (c) latest I-693 (d) Marriage Certificate (e) continuous employment from date of filing I-485 to current (e) Birth Certificate, etc

Update: USCIS has started issuing a LOT of RFE for primary and dependents in the last few days for EB2 India (even if they had earlier received same RFE from USCIS). The RFEs are primarily from Texas Service Center and is till PD of August 2008 (so far). This means that USCIS service centers have started looking at these cases (which is good news).

RFE Timeline:
1. To receive physical RFE letter: 7-21 days
2. To reply to RFE: 2-3 months (each RFE may have different date).
3. USCIS confirms receiving RFE response: 7-10 days

USCIS recent memo on RFE: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2013/June%202013/Requests%20for%20Evidence%20(Final).pdf

Q. How to check whether application has received an RFE?
A. You can check your current case status here: https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/Dashboard.do. You can also sign up for any notification from USCIS.

Q. How to get more details on RFE?
A. If you havent received RFE letter by postal mail, you can call USCIS (phone number on right side of this page). Once you speak with "Tier/Level 1" officer, ask them for more information on RFE. They might transfer you to "Tier/Level 2" officer who would be able to provide more information. Sometimes it takes few days for their system to update. So RFE details might not be available to them if the system does not have the latest updated data.

Q. What about porters from EB3 India category?
A. There are two types of porters from EB3 India category: (a) those who have not yet filed I-485 application and (b) those who have filed I-485 application (and may have already been preadjudicated). Porters with preadjudicated cases can be approved quickly. Please see next question for porters filing new I-485 application.

Q. What about new I-485 application filed in EB2 India category?
A. Since the current processing time is 4-7 months, most of the newly I-485 application (either from EB2 applicants or people porting from EB3 to EB2) may not be approved in 2 months. However they would be eligible for EAD/AP card.

Q. Can I-485 application be processed faster?

39 comments:

  1. Not sure how much true but may be Oct 2008 for EB2I, in next few bulletin. do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It depends on two main factors: (a) amount of spillovers from other EB categories (higher the better) (b) number of applicants porting from EB3 India to Eb2 India (lower the better).

      Since only USCIS and DOS have accurate data on these two factors, it would be hard to estimate how far dates could actually move.

      Delete
  2. How about EB3 Philippines? Will it ever receive spillover?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is possible. Please see this article for full details (or you can directly scroll down to June 15 update):

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/eb3-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

      Delete
  3. What does case been 'preadjucates' mean?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It means that USCIS has finished processing the case. However USCIS can still issue RFE for preadjudicated cases; which they are doing for a lot of cases.

      Delete
    2. Thanks. I just checked my status and it says RFE issued on 6/14 so I should expect something in the mail shortly. Do you know if this may impact my process if my PD goes current (Dec 07) in the next VB?

      Delete
    3. RFE notice would be sent by physical mail typically to your lawyer.

      There should not be much impact on processing time if you respond back to RFE letter.

      Delete
  4. Hi amazon, thanks for this great article, it's very helpful! My PD is April 2007 EB2 India and I have an email from USCIS that my case is preadjudicated. As per your article above, is it really possible to get adjudication within 7 days is the PD becomes current and assuming there is no RFE ? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is possible. It could even be faster. It fully depends on when USCIS officer starts looking at the case once the PD is current.

      Delete
  5. Hi Amazon,I am surprised that you guys gave good estimation in Feb 2013 saying there will be no movement for EB2 India till Aug-Sep(http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb2-india-analysis-and-prediction.html).It looks like EB2 India for Aug-Sep can be going till Feb 2008.What about next months like oct,Nov,Dec 2013.Any predictions from your end.My Priority date is Jul 2010.Interested to know estimations from your end.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you anonymous. EB2 India VB movement after Oct 2013 has already been added in PART 2 of this article. Here is the direct link:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014-part2.html

      Delete
  6. Hi Amazon,
    Your accurate information and timely updates are a great help. Thanks.

    Based on this, it looks like EB2 India would get 12,750 out of 18,000. How many will EB3 India get?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Each country in EB category got around 361 visas from 18,000 spillovers. Please see below for more details:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html

      Delete
  7. My PD is Nov 2008, I have applied I-485 & have got EAD & AP, When can I expect dates to be current ?

    Appreciate very much in advance.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, it is not currently possible to estimate that far (since porting from EB3 India is using up all available quota from EB2 India).

      Delete
  8. How can USCIS/DOS know the total number of portings before releasing SEPT Bulletin ? There are only 5 working days between august 1 and 8 ?

    Are these number of days good enough for different uscis offices to report the exact official number to CO's office?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Due to many agencies involved, it can take few weeks to get accurate data. Most likely what they do it have three scenarios: best case, worst case and average (median) of these two. Probably they have already done this for Sept VB.

      The first 8 days would give them a good estimate of the demand and they can select dates from any of these three categories to set date for EB2 India in Sept VB.

      Delete
  9. Oct 2008 Eb2 is my PD when do you think i'll get a Green card?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, it is not currently possible to estimate that far (since porting from EB3 India is using up all available quota from EB2 India).

      Delete
  10. I wish I knew about your blog earlier. It is so accurate. My PD is January 8, 2008. Any chance of getting lucky to file I-485 in September?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I forgot to mention - mine is an EB2 case and PD was ported from EB3.

      Delete
  11. Amazon you said that there is a possibility of dates moving to Apr 2008 for EB2I so is it going to be apr 1 2008 or apr 30 2008 as my pd is apr 4 2008 and missed filing I-485 last time as I changed job.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi,

    What happens after USCIS receives an RFE? More importantly, what is usually the time frame for receiving an I485 approval once I submit a response to the RFE?

    I had filed my adjustment of status application last year (March-2012) when the dates had moved forward temporarily (my priority date is Nov-2007). I just filed a response to RFE (an employment verification letter). And now I am wondering what to look forward to?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
  13. I forgot to mentioned the country where I came from. aug. 2007 eb3 phils. thanks once again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this link:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/faq-eb3-to-eb2-porting-part-1.html

      Delete
    2. Your company lawyers would be able to help with porting.

      Delete
  14. Hi Amazon - any idea as to when July 2011 EB2 India will be current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, it is too early to estimate that far.

      Delete
  15. I got my EAD when EB2 India dates got current last time around but GC did not come through. PD is march 2008. Lets says the date gets current; ideally how long do they take to issue GC on approved EAD. Do I need to contact company lawyers or is the process automatic at DOL end?
    thanks a bunch

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It could take a week. Please see FAQ here:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the reply.
      One more question: With approved EAD which was renewed once; are there any more contingencies DOL could be looking at when PD gets current or they are just waiting for PD to be current and then they will issue the GC?

      Delete
    3. It would depend on USCIS officer reviewing each case.

      Delete
    4. Thanks for your reply. Keep up the good work.

      Delete
  16. Hi, Amazon. I'm from China, and my current employer is about to sponsor me as EB3 since my current job requires bachelor's only though I have master's. There's also a possible promotion soon requiring master's. Which do you think is safer and can help me get GC faster? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, EB2 China could move faster.

      Delete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum