We have received many questions on EB2 India Visa Bulletin movement. So we decided to create two-part post exclusive to all EB2 categories and help answer many questions.
For EB3 Categories Future Visa Bulletin movement (May to Oct 2013), please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/eb3-visa-bulletin-predictions.html (updated June 15).
For USCIS/DOS prediction for Aug-Oct 2013 VB, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/uscis-prediction-for-august-to-october.html
Fiscal Year 2013:
Every year EB categories is assigned 140,000 visas. In addition, they receive any visas unused by FB category in the previous fiscal year. In FY 2013, EB received 18,000 unused visas from FB category.
FB spillover rules: All categories and countries will get equal distribution up to a maximum limit of 7% per country (please see link above).
EB spillover rules: EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
When EB spillover flows to EB2 categories, all countries in EB2 will get a max of 7% country limit. Remaining unused visas will then flow across to most retrogressed country in EB2 (which is India and China). However, since EB2 China is at 2008 and EB2 India is at 2004, all of the remaining spillovers will first go to EB 2 India until its cutoff date is same as EB2 China (Aug 2008).
After that both countries will get equal spillovers. If there is any spillovers left (which will happen when dates for all EB2 countries are current or EB2 cannot use all spillovers), then it will flow to EB3 category.
EB2 ROW: EB2 ROW is expected to remain current in FY 2013. It should also remain current from Oct - Dec 2013. However from January 2014 - March 2014, if demand is high, EB2 ROW could retrogress slightly. If EB2 ROW retrogress there is a high chance that EB2 India and EB2 China could become unavailable. This is because India and China have the highest demand. Hence they would be the first two countries to use up available visas; thus making any more visas unavailable. Remember DOS allocates 140,000 visas by every quarter (about 27%).
EB2 China: Demand from EB2 China is much lower than EB2 India. Hence it could continue to move around 6 - 9 weeks per month from August to December 2013 and finally move ahead of EB3 China.
EB2 India: Expected spillover to EB2 India in FY2013 is around 12,750-14,110 visas. This could potentially move dates to around January 2008 - April 2008. Please note that this spillover is entirely due to 18,000 visas spillover from FB categories. If there was no FB spillovers, EB2 India could have retrogressed further.
Q. Will EB2 India dates move immediately to Feb/Apr 2008 in August VB?
A. DOS (Charles Oppenheim) can move dates in two ways: (a) Move date immediately to Feb/Apr 2008 in Aug VB (b) Use a staggered approach. First move date to around January 01, 2008 in Aug VB. Wait and see the demand from both EB2 India applicants and applicants porting from EB3 India. If demand is within estimated range, then move it to around Feb/Apr 208 in Sept VB.
The second scenario (moving date to 01/01/08 in Aug VB is most likely).
As per July demand data, there are more than 41,000 preadjudicated cases in EB3 India till Aug 2007. So porting rate plays a big role in movement of EB2 India in Sept VB. If demand is very high from porting applicants, DOS could slightly retrogress dates in Sept VB for EB2 India. Porting is and is likely to continue to be a wildcard in EB2 India category.
Update (June 27): EB2 India is expected to reach Jan 1, 2008 in the Aug VB.
Q. Would all spillovers go to applications filed in USCIS service center (TSC, NSC, etc)?
A. Typically 15% of total spillovers will also go to consular processing cases in US embassy. This leaves around 85% of total spillovers assigned to applications in USCIS service centers. Remember in some categories, around 40% of total visas go to consular processing cases.
Q. If priority date is current, would I-485 be immediately approved?
A. It depends if your case has been preadjudicated. If yes, there is a higher chance that I-485 could be approved in one week after dates have been current. However, USCIS (at their discretion) can still issue RFE for (a) latest employment letter (b) new biometric appointment for latest finger prints (c) latest I-693 (d) Marriage Certificate (e) continuous employment from date of filing I-485 to current (e) Birth Certificate, etc
Update: USCIS has started issuing a LOT of RFE for primary and dependents in the last few days for EB2 India (even if they had earlier received same RFE from USCIS). The RFEs are primarily from Texas Service Center and is till PD of August 2008 (so far). This means that USCIS service centers have started looking at these cases (which is good news).
1. To receive physical RFE letter: 7-21 days
2. To reply to RFE: 2-3 months (each RFE may have different date).
3. USCIS confirms receiving RFE response: 7-10 days
USCIS recent memo on RFE: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2013/June%202013/Requests%20for%20Evidence%20(Final).pdf
Q. How to check whether application has received an RFE?
A. You can check your current case status here: https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/Dashboard.do. You can also sign up for any notification from USCIS.
Q. How to get more details on RFE?
A. If you havent received RFE letter by postal mail, you can call USCIS (phone number on right side of this page). Once you speak with "Tier/Level 1" officer, ask them for more information on RFE. They might transfer you to "Tier/Level 2" officer who would be able to provide more information. Sometimes it takes few days for their system to update. So RFE details might not be available to them if the system does not have the latest updated data.
Q. What about porters from EB3 India category?
A. There are two types of porters from EB3 India category: (a) those who have not yet filed I-485 application and (b) those who have filed I-485 application (and may have already been preadjudicated). Porters with preadjudicated cases can be approved quickly. Please see next question for porters filing new I-485 application.
Q. What about new I-485 application filed in EB2 India category?
A. Since the current processing time is 4-7 months, most of the newly I-485 application (either from EB2 applicants or people porting from EB3 to EB2) may not be approved in 2 months. However they would be eligible for EAD/AP card.
Q. Can I-485 application be processed faster?
Continue To Part 2: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014-part2.html