Friday, October 31, 2014

USCIS Visa Bulletin Prediction For Fiscal Year 2015

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS).

Please see the important details below:

EB1 (All Countries): This category is expected to remain current throughout fiscal year 2015.

EB2 ROW (Rest of World): This category is expected to remain current throughout this fiscal year 2015.

EB2 China: This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each visa bulletin. This could change if demand increases from applicants porting from EB3 China to EB2 China. This is not currently likely since EB3 China is again ahead of EB2 China.

EB2 India: This category is expected to retrogress significantly either in November or December visa bulletin. The dates are expected to retrogress to early 2005 and remain there till summer 2015 (around July 2015). This is due to heavy demand from new applicants and applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India  category.

For Fiscal year 2014, around 16,000 unused visas were made available to EB2 India category. This resulted in dates moving forward to 2009. For FY 2015, EB2 India has a base quota of around 2,802 visas.

This base quota for EB2 India is sufficient for applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India even when dates have  retrogressed to 2005. Hence there is no forward movement expected till around June or July 2015 when spillovers from other categories will (mostly) go to EB2 India.

For fiscal year 2014, EB2 India used up around 3,000 visas even when dates had retrogressed to 2004.

EB3 ROW (Rest of World): EB3 ROW is expected to continue to move forward significantly over the next few months to increase demand. This is because DOS has finished processing high number of cases in year 2007. Hence it has started moving dates forward for next few months to generate higher demand.

EB3 China: Rapid forward movement is expected in this category for next few months. Demand may increase if applicants from EB2 China port to EB3 China.

EB3 India:  Due to high volume of pending application (25,000-30,000 till around July 2007),  very small movement is expected in EB3 India. DOS is expecting around 1-2 weeks movement every month. The movement may increase as more applicants port from EB3 India to EB2 India category.

EB4 (All Countries): The demand continues to increase in this category. This may result in retrogression either towards end of FY 2015 or early 2016.

EB5 (All Countries): For the first time, demand in this category was sufficient to meet the quota of 10,000 visas in FY 2014. Around 85% of demand is from applicants from China. This may result in retrogression in EB5 China in 2015.

Visa Bulletin Predictions - Family Based:

Here are the predictions for the next several months:

F1: This category is expected to advance by 2-3 weeks per month.

F2A: This category is expected to advance by 3-5 weeks per month.

F2B: This category is expected to advance by 6-8 weeks per month.

F3: This category is expected to advance by 1-3 weeks per month.

F4: This category is expected to advance by 2-4 weeks per month.

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  1. any updtes for EB3 Philippines Amazon?

    1. EB3 Philippines will be same as EB3 Row. Once it has enough demand, it might retrogress.

    2. How far do you think will be the retrogression if ever?

  2. What it means for F2A?

  3. My priority date is April 2008 ,a Jamaican in the F2B category how soon will I hear from NVC to submit civil documents and paid fees. When will my priority date current.

    1. @ anymous who has April 2008 pririoty date, Country : Jamaica- did you not get an email from them about your case. If not you need to contact them ASAP

  4. Why dos isn't remove the backlog 2007. One time all visa issue to eb3 india. Please

  5. Hoping vb for eb3 row moves beyond dec 12 so that things can get moving along for a lot of us

  6. Hey any 1 give me information about. How to collect invoice identification number. And when it collect

  7. Official December 2014 visa bulletin is out:

  8. I had signed... I request every one to sign.............

  9. Hi Amazon,

    Is there possibility for my EB3 ROW with priority date of Aug 09, 2013 to be current in this fiscal year 2015?


  10. Hi my priority date ( EB3 Rest or World ) May 27 2014. A priority date predictor says that based on history, my priority date will be current in June 2015. Is it possible that the priority date becomes current and then retrogresses? If I can apply I 485 and then retrogress occurs, will by application be stuck?

  11. Why there is not a visa for spouses to visit their LPR family in the states while pending her/his I-130?

    1. There is, visa - V
      They have reqaerments. Very sad.

    2. Have been told this visa is not available anymore

  12. Pls my priority date is 2010 when will it be current ...f2b

  13. Hola una pregunta yo fui pedida en sept 2013, como residente y ahora mi esposo cambio el estatus a ciudadano, que tiempo se toma.

  14. please remove baclog eb3 India
    one time remove the backlog

  15. Next week we'll know when the VB is out...these few days seem like forever.

  16. The prediction here for 2015 is wrong already for EB2 India; and we haven't reached February yet. Please revise the "prediction" here.


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