Thursday, April 11, 2013

Analysis: Visa Bulletin May 2013

For May 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/visa-bulletin-may-2013.html

EB1: All EB1 categories continues to remain current. Though EB1 China and EB1 India have already used up their annual quota (and currently using visas from EB1 ROW), this category should continue to remain current this fiscal year.

EB5: This category is current. Though usage of EB5 worldwide is 75% higher than last year - we are expecting EB5 to remain current this fiscal year. There was a possibility of EB5 China retrogressing due increase in demand from Oct to Dec 2012. However since the demand has decreased, it can use the spillover from EB5 ROW and hence there wont be any retrogression for EB5 China.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office had earlier mentioned of a possible EB2ROW retrogression if demand is high. Due to expected EB/FB spillovers in next few visa bulletins, we do not expect this category to retrogress.

EB2 India: As per Charles Oppenheims predictions, there was (again) no movement in this category. You can read this article on why EB2 India is not moving forward since May 2012. However there is a possibility of EB2 India FINALLY moving forward in the next visa bulletin.

EB2 China: As expected EB2 China moved forward by 6 weeks this month. Since EB2 China has already reached 2008, most of the EB/FB spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 should go to EB2 India in the last quarter.

EB3 ROW:  EB3 ROW got the second biggest boost and moved by five months. This big move was made to fill the pipeline - thus allowing USCIS/DOS to exactly know how many cases are present. This will help them avoid wasting visa.

EB3 China: The biggest movement was in EB3 China and it received nearly 7.5 months forward movement. Due to low demand in this category, EB3 China and EB3 ROW now have the same dates.

If this continues, EB3 China may move ahead of EB2 China. Currently there is only 5.5 months difference between EB2 China and EB3 China.

EB3 Mexico: Due to low demand, EB3 Mexico also moved forward by five months. Dates should continue to remain same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: Due to huge demand and as  Charles Oppenheims predicted EB2 India moved by two weeks forward. On a positive side, it is continuing to slowly move forward every month (unlike EB2 India). One of the reason of forward movement could be people who are porting to EB2 India - thus freeing up visas for others applicants in this category.

EB3 Philippines: This category got the smallest forward movement of just one week. Due to huge pending inventory and according to Charles Oppenheim prediction, it may continue to move forward slowly.However, it may jump by 2-3 weeks when the FB spillover is applied.

Tip: If you don't know, Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Family Categories:

All family categories continue to move forward except F4 ROW, F4 China and F4 India. These three categories did not move at all this month.

All of the Philippines category (F1 to F4) saw a jump of around 3 months.

The smallest forward movement was in F1 and F4 Mexico which moved by only one week.

The biggest forward movement was in F1 Philippines which moved by 3.5 months. Did you know F1 Philippines moved about 17 months forward in just the last 4 visa bulletins (Jan to May 2013 VB)?

However the current record for the most forward movement is EB2 India. It moved 39 months in just one VB (June 2007 to July 2007). As you may have guessed, EB2 India also moved the most backward by 32 months in just one VB (April 2013 to May 2013).

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66%  - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more fun statistics here.

Also See:

May 2013 Demand Data (with updated analysis): http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/demand-data-for-may-2013-visa-bulletin.html

April 2013 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/03/visa-bulletin-april-2013.html

Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

36 comments:

  1. movement for EB3 in the Philippines is so frustrating...my PD is Dec 2007 and my H1B extension expiry is almost coming up...i hope they will give extra consideration to those who are working full time as an RN and currently doing MSN in Education...

    ReplyDelete
  2. why is that only one (1) week the EB3 Philippines movement. Oh Lord pls help us...

    ReplyDelete
  3. somebody please confirm me june 2013 visa bulletin for F-4 no movement from april to may for F-4 ROW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The official June 2013 vb will be released around May 10.

      Delete
  4. can there at least be hope that f-4 will for ROW will move at least 1x week my priority date is may30th 01.if new immigration reform bill in place will we see an increase in F4 ROW it moved only 1week going back to september 2012 VB to April 2013 VB.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. F4 ROW is expected to move to June 01, 2001 in the next 4-5 VB.

      Delete
  5. thank you but F4 ROW has already moved to 01june 01 in August 2010 VB wouldn't you say maybe after may2013 VB 3 months for May30th01 cases since its falls under 22may01 cases because of numerical process 1/8/15/22.... http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5092.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. You are correct about the numerical process to establish visa bulletin cutoff date.

    However, the actual visa bulletin dates depends on how much demand is there for THAT month. VB dates are not related at all to what the dates were in the past; but to current forecasted demand. If it is on last quarter, it would typically move faster to make sure that visas are not wasted.

    If the demand is much higher, USCIS/DOS would not move dates by 3 months in just one VB (even though DOS had already moved to those dates initially). A good example is Eb2 India. It had reached as far as May 2010 in the April 2013 VB. However for the last one year, it is remaining at Sept 2004.

    ReplyDelete
  7. thank you for info I understand i'm still remaining optimistic besides my date isn't far from 01may01 as current to 22may01 my family date.will new CIR bill move F4 visas row faster in june and other remaining months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good to be optimistic and be aware of all possible scenarios. BTW, did you know the current draft of CIR bill is removing F4 category completely?

      Delete
  8. yes i am aware by removing it completely those whose cases are completed and waiting for visa interviewto become current like my case in particular wat will happen to the others waiting for their PD to become current after case is completed

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will have to wait for guidelines/memo from USCIS about what they will do with existing/pending cases in F4 category.

      Delete
  9. No more visa for siblings (brothers/sisters) of U.S. citizens 18 months after enactment of CIR. Hence this will remove F4 category.according to my sources they will stop taking petitions for the F4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. I think he/she also wanted to know what will USCIS do with existing/pending cases in F4 category

      Delete
  10. according to my sources all existing cases waiting for visa avability won't be cancelled or cases that has already a petition and been approved but the upcoming bill that should be a law will change US immigration forever

    ReplyDelete
  11. What will be the impact of cir bill on approved cases of f4 category...?? When my PD ( 11/june/2001 f4 india ) will be current according to you?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CIR should not have any impact on old approved cases. Rough estimate for F4 to reach that date is around 6 months.

      Delete
    2. Hey did you got visa now ? Current pd is 22/6/2001

      Delete
  12. hello..can u give me an estimate when will my PD Oct 31, 2006 EB3 Philippines be current?thank u very much

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rough estimate is around 6-7 months.

      Delete
  13. Please help... estimate my PD Aug 23,1993 F3 Philippines, when this will
    be current? Than you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rough estimate would be 15-18 months.

      Delete
  14. please could you give me an estimate for PD august 21, 2001 all chargeability areas be current?
    thank you so much!!!

    ReplyDelete
  15. My pd is 1 June 2001 f4 ROW. Can I expect for it to be current in July bulletin ? F4 hasn't moved since April.. and plz could you tell me approx how much time would I have for interview after my pd becomes current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not sure about the interview. You can call the US embassy to find out the details.

      For July VB, due to huge demand, it MIGHT only move by one week.

      Delete
  16. hey my PD is on 18th july 01 for F4. What do you think how long is it going to take for my interview ? thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You will have to wait for PD to be current.

      To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this link:

      www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  17. What does "movement" mean ? Need some clarification

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It means how far dates could move in the next visa bulletin.

      Delete
  18. Hi. I'm just wondering why the movement of F4 has become so slow this year? Does that reflect the future? Only a week of movement per calendar month? Very frightening :(

    ReplyDelete

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