Monday, May 12, 2014

June 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For June 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here:

Please see below analysis of June 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1000-1200 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillover in FY 2014.

EB2 China: EB2 China also moved forward by 5 weeks. It should continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month. It is finally ahead of EB3 China which is now behind by around 2 years.

EB2 India: There was no change in EB2 India movement. As we had mentioned earlier, there was huge retrogression in EB2 India due to large amount of porting from EB3 India to EB2 India. We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: Due to low demand, this category had moved forward by more than few years. This resulted in them receiving enough applications to meet the quota for 2014. This has resulted in large retrogression of 1.5 years for EB3 ROW category.

EB3 China: EB3 China had the second biggest retrogression. It retrogressed by 6 years. The biggest reason for this is (1) heavy demand in EB3 China category (2) applicants downgrading from EB2 China to EB3 China. However according to latest pending inventory, demand in EB2 China as of April 1 is less than 2,990. This is till priority date earlier than October 1, 2012 only. Since USCIS will continue to accept applicants till end of this month, demand in EB3 China will be higher than the one show in pending inventory.

EB3 China Other workers Category has the biggest retrogression. It retrogressed by nearly 10 years.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also retrogressed by 1.5 years.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category also moved forward by 2 weeks. Since dates in EB2 India retrogressed to 15 November 2004, the volume of applicants upgrading from EB3 India to EB2 India has decreased significantly, resulting in slow forward movement in EB3 India.

EB3 Philippines: The biggest forward movement in EB category was in EB3 Philippines. This category moved forward by 2 months. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 4 months. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 4 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was significant retrogression in F2A categories. F2A Mexico retrogressed by more than a year. All other countries retrogressed by around 16 months. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 8 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 10 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 3 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. Philippines moved forward by only 1 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 3 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India moved forward by 1 weeks. Philippines moved forward by 2 week. Mexico category only moved forward by 1 week.

If you have not done it yet, remember to add your case data to GC tracker: tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

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  1. When u r posting July VB prediction. THanks

    1. Please see the link below:

  2. What's the 2014 quota for eb3row and how do we know it has already been filled up?

    1. Amazon, do you think there will be further retrogression in EB3?
      Thank you!

    2. EB3 ROW is just jinxed. Repeat of 2007 retrogression. It's just sad. What a setback.

      Amazon, when do you think EB3 ROW will start moving again? Potentially with Sept's visa bulletin release, as it will be the start of new fiscal year.

  3. I hope we get some comments and insight from Amazon and other people who usually participate in this forum soon. EB3 ROW seems to be heading in the direction of another 2007 fiasco so it would be good to look at the numbers and try to understand what may be happening...

    1. To see quota for each category, please see the link below:

      Based on current data, EB3ROW could start moving in October visa bulletin. We will have to wait for latest data from USCIS/DOS to confirm.

    2. Amazon, when will the latest data be released for EB3ROW? Thanks.

  4. I don't see any analysis by Amazon. He is basically rehashing what Charles O said.

  5. Hi, I am dominican, my priority date is september 12 2013 and my case is in the nvc they are progressing my case and my question is ¿my case will take 2years? Tell me please my category is f2a.

  6. In which step u r now in nvc process?


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