Sunday, June 16, 2013

Part 2: EB2 India, China, ROW: Visa Bulletin Movement August - December 2013


If you missed part 1, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html

Q. What about processing time?
A. USCIS time to process I-485 application is already long (around 7 months at TSC). Due to large volume of applications from EB3 (ROW, China, Mexico) and EB2 India, processing time could slightly increase. Processing time is (supposed to be) updated every month. You can find the latest processing time here: https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Q. Why are processing time not updated every month?
A. Three possible reasons: (1) They do update data but  forget to change the "last updated date" (2) There is no change in processing time since they last updated it few months back (3) They did not have the time to update the dates. Scenario (2) is most likely scenario.

Q. Can I-485 application be processed faster?
A. Some applicants call USCIS repeatedly and open service request (even if they are within the processing time frame). This only helps in increasing the hold time when calling USCIS call center (since they keep the phone line busy). USCIS will run all the required checks and processes that they have established before approving I-485 applications. They are not going to skip this process (since it is part of national security checks). If your processing time is outside the average processing time listed on the official site, please open a service request.

Q. Is there a possibility of spillover to EB3 category in FY2013?
A. Remember USCIS cannot assign visas to applicants whose PD is after the VB cutoff dates (even if there are lots of spillovers remaining). In case EB2 India cannot use (approximately 12,000+) spillovers, it will flow to EB2 China. EB2 China will use up remaining spillovers until the cutoff date for EB2 China mentioned in VB. If there are still spillovers remaining then it will flow to EB3 categories.

Due to lag in various USCIS departments, it may take some time to calculate how much visas can flow to EB3 category. If they dont identify unused spillovers before Sept 30, then these visas will be wasted. If spillovers flow to EB3 category then EB3 ROW, EB3 China and EB3 Mexico could finally move ahead in Sept VB.

Q. Why didn't dates for EB2 India moved from May 2012 - July 2013?
A. Please see this link: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb2-india-analysis-and-prediction.html

Fiscal Year 2014:

Q. How would dates move for EB2 India from October 2013 to December 2013?
A. October 2013 would be start of new fiscal year. EB2 India will again have a annual quota of around 2802 visas (or 233 per month). Hence based on CURRENT data, EB2 India could retrogress to around Jan 2005 to April 2005. It completely depends on amount of people porting from EB3 India. Higher the number of porters, more will be the retrogression (since supply is fixed at 233 per month but demand could be increasing).

Q. Instead of Oct 2013, can dates for EB2 India retrogress in Nov/Dec 2013?
A. Since USCIS already have I-485 pending inventory for EB2 India till May 2010, it is not likely that USCIS will wait till November 2013 or December 2013 to retrogress the dates. For every month it waits, the number of porters from EB3 India will increase (which could further retrogress the dates for EB2 India).

Update (July 12): Due to delay in moving F2A category, there is a possibility of more visas wasted in FB category. These visas will be assigned to EB category in FY 2014. There is a possibility that DOS may decide to assign some of these estimated spillovers to EB2 India in Oct 2013 VB (instead of waiting till July-Sept 2014). This could mean that dates for EB2 India could retrogress in Nov/Dec VB (instead of Oct VB). Without any spillovers, EB2 India only have around 2,802 visas allotted every year.

Q.When will EB2 India start moving forward in FY2014?
A. If the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India is more than 233 per month, then it would not move at all (or retrogress). In that case the only way it could start moving forward is when it gets FB/EB spillovers. Typically EB spillovers are applied in July-Sept. So dates could start moving then.

Q. How far could dates for EB2 India move in FY 2014?
A. Lets assume porting from EB3 India will use up all available quota for EB2 India (2802 visas). We will need to estimate how much EB and FB spillovers will flow to India. In FY 2013, EB got 18,000 spillovers from FB. EB3 got 5,148 of those spillovers. This means all other EB categories got 18000-5148 = 12852.

In FY2013, EB2 India is estimated to receive around 12,000-14,000. Most of these would (indirectly) be from FB spillovers. This means that in FY 2014 (similar to FY 2013), EB1, EB2 ROW, EB4 and EB5 would again consume most of its annual quota (since demand is increasing every year). So EB2 India in FY 2014 may have to wait for unused visas in FB category (in FY 2013) to start moving forward.

One of the reasons EB2ROW is using up so much visas is because this category had retrogressed in FY 2012. Hence there was more demand in FY2013. Also there is always a possibility that applicants from EB3 ROW would start porting to EB2 ROW in FY 2014 in bigger numbers. This could increase the demand in EB2 ROW and causing potential retrogression in EB2 ROW around January - March 2014.

Q. How much FB spillovers will EB categories receive in FY 2014?
A. USCIS will publish this data around December 2013 - February 2014. Due to huge amount of waste in FB category in FY 2012, DOS has already started aggressively moving dates forward. F2A category is expected to be current in Aug/Sept VB.

This could mean that FB spillovers to all EB categories could be low (2,000 - 4,000). Depending on how accurately USCIS tracks data and allocates visas, it could even be zero. We will have to wait for USCIS to officially publish FB category usage around Feb 2014.

All this means that any movement for EB2 India in FY 2014 will directly depend on how much FB spillovers goes to EB categories. If its zero, EB2 India movement would be low (if any). If its huge (18,000) then it could be many years.

Update (July 23): Please see one more FAQ below:

Q. Why did dates for EB2 India move till May 2010 in 2012 VB?
A. Please see this: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/updated-more-predictions-from-charles.html

Update (August 14):

As most of you know October 2013 is start of new FY 2014. EB quota will reset back to 140,000 per year plus any spillovers. EB2 India quota is around 2,802 visas for entire year (plus any spillovers).

DOS can move dates for EB2 India in Oct VB in following three ways:

1. Immediately retrogress date to around April 2005 in Oct VB
2. Keep date as June 2008 in Oct VB (build porting demand and use any future spillovers) and retrogress in Nov VB to around April 2005.
3. Move date forward in Oct/Nov VB. However EB2 India could become unavailable from Dec VB.

In option 2 above, DOS can decide to allot future spillovers in Oct VB instead of waiting till July/Aug 2014 VB. It will also help build demand from people porting from EB3 India. The risk with this approach is if demand increases in other EB categories (EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 ROW) in FY 2014, EB2 India could become unavailable.

Important Notes: April 2005 date is based on July 2013 demand data (DOS did not release August and September demand data). EB2 India is expected to receive around 18,000 spillovers visas from Aug 1 to Sept 30. It is likely that significant amount of cases till March 2005 (mostly from porters) would be cleared out by Sept 30.

Visa consumption also depends on which PD the visa actually gets allotted in Aug and Sept (is it PD in 2004 or 2008 or somewhere in between). If they do not allot visas by PD (which is likely), a good chunk of porters with PD in 2004-2005 will remain pending. This could cause dates to retrogress back to around April 2005 (or later). In FY 2014, as long as monthly porters exceed 233 per month, EB2 India would not move forward unless it receives spillovers. For more details on how "233 per month" is calculated, please see this article. So exact dates for retrogression depends on lots of factors. It would be more clear once we get more data from USCIS (including latest demand data from DOS).

Trivia: There are around 25,000 cases pending in EB3 India between September 2003 to April 2005 and around 21,000 have been preadjudicated. Can you guess how many will port or have already ported?

Update (October 23):

As we mentioned in August, the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to be at a very high rate. It is likely to reach around 600-900 per month. This is due to huge amount of backlog in EB3 India category.  Hence EB3 India applicants with PD from October 2003 to June 2008 are porting to EB2 India in large numbers.

Now the EB2 India quota for the year is 2,802 visas. You can see that with high rate of porting, it will easily use up this quota in the first few months. Hence the dates for EB2 India in December VB is likely to retrogress to around Feb 2005. This will reduce the porting rate significantly and make sure visa allocated does not exceed the INA guidelines.

In addition, EB2 India receives majority of the spillovers from other EB categories in the last quarter of fiscal year (July to September). It is likely that some of the expected spillovers have already been applied.

This could mean that dates for EB2 India may remain around Feb 2005 till around June 2014 VB. It is likely to start moving forward from July 2014 VB (when it is expected to receive spillovers from other EB categories).

Update (December 3):

EB2 India category is unavailable since November 20. This is due to huge demand in porting cases (around 150 per day from November 10 to November  20) from EB3 to EB2 category. This means there was demand for around 1,500 visas in just 10 days. Remember EB2 India quota is around 2,802 for the entire year. Due to this huge demand, EB2 India is unavailable from November 20.

In the update above, dated August 14, we had said that if DOS continues to keep date at 2008, it could result in EB2 India becoming unavailable around December. This is exactly what happened. It is possible that dates for EB2 India in January VB could become unavailable.

Update (December 21):

EB2 India FY 2014 Visa Bulletin Movement: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/12/eb2-india-fy-2014-movement.html

Update (January 27, 2014):

EB And FB Green Cards Allotted in Fiscal Year 2013: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/01/eb-and-fb-green-cards-alloted-in-fiscal.html

If you have not done it yet, please add your case data to the GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker/


Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

69 comments:

  1. Hi Amazon,
    great post here.
    I have one question of the EB2 India.
    how many spillovers can EB2 India take before it makes the total VISA for India citizens reach the 7% annual limit(about 26K)?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB2 India already reached 7% limit when it reached about 2802 visas. The secondary spillovers it will get from EB2ROW does not have a 7% cap as explained above (see "Possible Spillover to EB3 category").

      Delete
    2. Hi Amazon,
      I copied following from the beginning of the July visa bulletin and it's actually in every visa bulletin.
      "Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. "
      you see, the max family and employment based VISA that one country can receive in 1 year is 25620.
      Now, how many VISA already assigned to India citizen in FY2013 is unknown. I think that might limit how many spillovers that EB2 India can actually use.

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. There are many exceptions to that rule. You can read about it here:

      http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1016.html

      EB2 India has received more than 15,000 spillovers multiple times in the last few years.

      Delete
    4. People from India received between 65,000 and 70,000 GC in the last three years. You can see more statistics here:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/03/green-card-processing-statistics-part-2.html

      Delete
    5. Thanks a lot.

      Delete
    6. Any predictions for nov 2013 visa bulletin?

      Delete
  2. Good news, uscis has updated processing times chart up to April 30. As it states processing time for I485 is now 4 mths.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, it is good news that processing time at NSC and TSC have dropped down to 4 months (as of April 30).

      Though we dont know the CURRENT processing time :)

      This is important because EB3ROW/China/Mexico moved by 18 months since May 1, 2013. So there could be thousands of new applications since May 1 to June 18.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your insight. I check your blog almost every month to get upto speed. Based on your prediction when should people with priority dates in 2009 May under EB2 category should expect to get the Green card

      Delete
  3. Once USCIS receives response to RFE, where will the I-485 application land in the processng order? same as original submission date of I-485 or receipt date of RFE response? my I-485 was submitted in March 2011. I recd RFE notification email and expecting the letter this week. Thx for your response.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sorry, my I-485 was submitted in March 2012.

      Delete
    2. I am not sure since I am not familiar with USCIS system workflow. My guess is it could be based on I-485 application receipt date.

      Delete
  4. My PD is Nov 2008 EB2 India, When can I expect dates to be current ?

    Thanks !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, it is not possible to estimate that far.

      Delete
  5. Hi Amazon,
    My PD is March 2008 EB2 India, so when can I expect my date to be current, given its now moved to Jan 2008?

    Thanks !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It could move to Feb-Apr 2008 in Sept VB. It all depends on porting demand.

      Delete
  6. My priority date is Nov 14, 2002 and I filled I485 in EB3 category for India.

    I got RFE on may 2 for employment proof . I repsoed to RFE which Texas center received on May 21,2013. When do you think I will get GC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Each case can be different. You can call USCIS and ask them for update.

      Delete
  7. my PD is September 15, 2008 EB2 India. Based on your recent update with regards to unused F2A numbers, is there a possibility for my date to be current.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would depend entirely on how much visas were unused in FB category. Since we do not have that numbers yet, it would be hard to estimate.

      Delete
  8. My PD is Nov 2008 EB2 India, When can I expect dates to be current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current data, it is not possible to estimate that far, due to large amount of porting.

      Delete
    2. Hi Amazon ,

      Jan 2014 is my PD ... you mean 2014 qouta is already completed

      Delete
  9. Hi Amazon,

    My PD is Jun 2008 EB2. Based on the current data, any possibilities to become current this year?

    ReplyDelete
  10. My PD is Apr 23 2008 EB2 India. Do you think I'll get lucky?

    ReplyDelete
  11. eb2 need more spill over or stop porting for while. first come first serve

    ReplyDelete
  12. What ever the logic is EB2 India is screwed up for long time!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hello, Can you please clarify my question: my priority date is dec 2007 in EB2. I am not yet married. I see that the EB2 dates are current now for my priority date. What are the risks of going ahead and applying for my green card now? How will I be able to bring my spouse after application?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can marry and submit the I-485 application for your spouse anytime before the I-485 is approved. In many cases, USCIS is approving I-485 in around 2 months after it is sent to them. So you would have to take this into consideration.

      Delete
  14. my PD is march 2010. What is the worst case of getting GC? I have EAD

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Each category and country may have different dates.

      Delete
    2. for eb2 march 2010 india

      Delete
    3. Due to large number of porting (which is unknown), it is not possible to accurately estimate that date.

      Delete
  15. Eb2i predictions for nov 2013?????

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Amazon,

    Could you please help me understand this? Very confused.The website below says that the dates for EB2I could move in the Nov bulletin to August. Is that possible?
    http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/visa-bulletin-predictions-work-sponsored.php

    Also my PD is June 20, 2008 EB2. Any idea when it could get current?
    Please respond...thank you! Meghna

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will have to wait for latest data from USCIS to estimate how much actual demand have been generated in the last three months.

      That will give a clear idea about how dates could move forward. Currently based on previous data, there is less than 5% chance that EB2 India will move forward in Nov VB.

      It can either stay the same or retrogress (if sufficient demand is generated). The reason for this is in the blog post above. EB3 India has a huge pending demand till 2008 (over 30,000).

      If porting rate is much higher than previous years (which may be possible), dates could retrogress.

      Delete
  17. HI Amazon,

    My PD date is Dec 11 2007. EB3 to EB2 porting. India
    My I-486 receipt date is August 8th 2013. I got my EAD/AP card on September 16th 2013 and I have finished my biometrics on September 15th 2014.

    When can I expect to to receive my green card ( I-485 approval)?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Will the govt shutdown delay the visa bulletin release this month ?

    Is it going to effect the movements hoe eb2 ??

    ReplyDelete
  19. it seems, EB2 India PD has not changed for Nov 2013.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi my pd is eb3 india november 2003. Do you see any forward movement any time in the near future

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3 India is likely to either stay same or (most likely) it could retrogress a little in next few months.

      Delete
  21. Hi Amazon,

    May I know why you think EB3 to EB2 porting could reach around 600-900 per month? In FY2013, it has been between 300-400 range.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See the EB3 India pending inventory till June 2008. With the huge backlog, porting could even be higher than 900.

      Delete
  22. hi amazon
    r we ever going to get Green Card......we have applied on Aug 2008.....
    still waiting for priority date.....can u please please suggest us something?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Category ?? Country ??
      C'mon man

      Delete
  23. when someone applies for green card(485) and gets preadjucated and then the priority dates retrogress. Is it possible to get 485 approved when the dates are regrogessed or the green card approval is possible only after the dates become current??
    what if the case is approved by the ~200-300 monthly visa number allotted for that category. Can i say that a person can still be approved when the dates are not current ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. USCIS can approve the I-485 application only when PD is current.

      Delete
  24. I have approved i140 with PD May 2011. I am planning to change my job now. I understand i need to do labor i140 once again which would take another year or so. This being the case, do you think that my PD can become current anytime in later half of 2014 or early 2015? Any advice if job change with my PD is good decision?

    ReplyDelete
  25. I am EB2 CHINA, my PD is Mar 9, 2010. Do you have any idea about when my PD is expected to be current? Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Is it correct that people from EB2 don't get any of the visas and everything is used up by EB3 porting cases? Don't you think there is something wrong with the process in place?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes the problem is the hundreds of thousands of Indians clogging up the system.

      Delete
    2. So what will be the solution ? Will new law bill passed make any difference?

      Delete
    3. The porting should be limited to certain number in a year.

      Delete
    4. I did not understand what you mean by 'EB2 don't get any of the visas'. Can anyone in the blog help me understand this or reference me to an article or link.

      Also would like to get opinions on: chances of forward movement for EB2 India after the month of March 2014. What is the probability by end of fiscal year 2014 EB2 India can reach 2008 May?

      Thanks,

      Delete
    5. Go Back to India, It resolves the problem.Coming on working visas and sitting on benches , and demanding green cards. Funny lifes.....

      Delete
  27. This is ridiculous. EB3 is killing EB2 India. Hopefully this crazy porting should be limited.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hi Amazon
    My PD is APR 2004 EB3 India. When can I expect my GC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on April 2014 data, your Priority Date may become current around June 2015

      Delete
  29. Hi Amazon, my PD is August 2010, can you predict when it will be get current, I know many ppl ask this kind of questions but I wantto get an idea and based on that want to make major decisions in life

    ReplyDelete
  30. My PD in Feb 2007 in EB3 when can expect my GC or I 485?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3I 2007 ??? probably in 30 yrs.

      Delete
    2. haaha...I can feel you pain!!!

      Delete
  31. Hello, My prority date is Jan 7, 2009 and currently EB2 india is at Sep 2008, can you please advise when will my date hit? It could be likely in Aug 2014 or Sept 2014 bulletin I can expect it would touch Jan 2009?

    Please advise.

    ReplyDelete
  32. My priority date is Aug 5 2009, can you please advise when will my date hit? It could be likely in Sept 2014 bulletin I can expect it would touch Aug or Sep 2009?

    ReplyDelete
  33. My PD is 26th June 2008.when will the visa be current

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/discuss


Comments posted above will only appear in this blog post. Comments posted below will appear across all blog posts:

comments powered by Disqus