Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions

Charles Oppenheim recently discussed expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:

F1:   Three to six weeks
F2A: Three to six weeks
F2B: Up to one month
F3:   Two to four weeks
F4:   Three or four weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Forward movement of this date during FY-2015 has resulted in a
         dramatic increase in demand. Little, if any movement is likely
         during the coming months.
India: Up to eight months.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement during FY-2015 was expected
                 to generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. If
                 such demand fails to materialize in the near future it will be
                 necessary to begin advancing this cut-off date.
China:        Rapid forward movement. Such movement will result in
                 increased demand which will require "corrective" action
                 as early as April.
India:         Up to three weeks.
Mexico:      Will remain at the worldwide date.
Philippines: Four to six weeks.

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: The category will remain "Current" for most countries.
                           China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through March based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

All Categories: Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories.

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Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

Also See:

• Immigration News (updated every 15 minutes): http://www.mygcvisa.com/news/

• December 2015 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/11/december-2015-visa-bulletin.html

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