Thursday, July 10, 2014

August 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For August 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/07/august-2014-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of August 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1000-1200 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. 

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by more than 2 months. It should continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month

EB2 India: The third biggest jump was in EB2 India category which moved forward by around 4.5 months.  We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. Based on those estimates, EB2 India should continue to move forward till around April 2009, unless applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases dramatically (which is possible, since they have been waiting in EB3 India category for more than a decade)

If the porting rate from EB3 India increases at very high rate, DOS may decide to retrogress EB2 India category in the September 2014 visa bulletin, so that allotted visas do no exceed available quota. At this time, retrogression for EB2 India in September visa bulletin is not expected. Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: As expected, EB3 ROW did not move forward in this visa bulletin, after retrogressing by 1.5 years in the July visa bulletin. Due to previous low demand, this category had moved forward by more than few years. This resulted in them receiving enough applications to meet the quota for 2014. There is a small possibility of dates moving forward in September 2014 visa bulletin.

EB3 China: EB3 China had the biggest jump in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by more than 2 years. As many of you know, this category had retrogressed by 6 years.

EB3 China Other workers category also moved ahead by more than 2.5 years.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also did not move forward, after retrogressing by 1.5 years.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 1 week.Due to high demand, this category is expected to move forward by one week in the next visa bulletin. The good news is that many applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India. Hence the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed.

EB3 Philippines: The second biggest forward movement in EB category again was in EB3 Philippines. This category moved forward by nearly 1.5 year. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by around 1.5 years. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 3 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 9 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was no movement in any F2A category, after significant (around 16 months) retrogression in earlier visa bulletin. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 8 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 17 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 7 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. Philippines moved forward by 3 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 5 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India moved forward by 1 weeks. Philippines moved forward by 3 week. Mexico category moved forward by 2 week.

If you have not done it yet, please remember to add your case data to GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

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12 comments:

  1. Your predictions are very close to visa bulletin dates, my pd is march 25th 2009, wat r my chances of getting current in sept bulletin? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Why did China and the Philippines EB3 advanced and only Mexico Didn't? Can we expect a movement in September?

    ReplyDelete
  3. My priority date is Aug 5 2009, can you please advise when will my date hit? It could be likely in Sept 2014 bulletin I can expect it would touch Aug or Sep 2009?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I respect your thinking but you have high expectations!

      Delete
  4. Nov 19 2012 EB3-ROW, any prediction when this will be current?

    ReplyDelete
  5. think about eb3 india. my pd july 2006 india.

    ReplyDelete
  6. please remove backlog eb3 india upto 2006

    ReplyDelete
  7. please all visa use in eb3 india n remove backlog.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Amazon... not responding again

    ReplyDelete
  9. My PD is 2 suggest 2011 f2b Ghana pls when I'm I going to be current?

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete

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