Monday, April 8, 2013

Updated Analysis: May 2013 Demand Data

For May 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/demand-data-for-may-2013-visa-bulletin.html

Demand Data Analysis:

Every month each country in each category is eligible to get 233 visas (7% * 28.6% * 140,000)/12. This does not include the 18,000 additional spillover from FB category to EB category in FY 2013.

EB2 India: Till Jan 2005, the numbers went up from 375 to 425. This means there was 425 -375+233=283 cases ported. The porting rate is remaining constant around 300 cases per month in EB2 India category. Similarly the numbers increase by 125 to 450 per month for other time periods (year 2006 to 2010).

Based on analysis, the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India should remain around 300 per month for month of June and July 2013. For the month of August 2013 and September 2013, the porting rate could easily increase to 1000+ per month.

The is because in FY 2013, EB category will be getting 18000 unused visa from FB categories.  Hence USCIS/DOS will most likely move dates forward in July 2013 VB for EB2 India to around 2007-2008. We will soon publish another post on how far EB2 India and other categories could go from July to Sept VB.

Tip: There is over 95% probability that the dates for EB2 India can retrogress back to Dec 2004 (or early 2005) from FY 2014 - which is from October 2013 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 China:  The demand prior to Jan 2009 has decreased  by 400 (2,975 to 2,575). Since there is no demand in EB2 China before Jan 2009, all of FB/EB spillover in EB2 category should be applied to EB2 India (which is backlogged till Sept 2004).

EB2 ROW: The demand in this category is fixed at 150 till Jan 2012. We do not know the demand from Jan 2012 to March 2013. If the annual demand this fiscal year is much higher than 34,436 (40040-2802-2802 for EB2 ROW-India-China) or 34436/12=2870 per month, than this category would retrogress.

Charles Oppenheim had hinted on this category possibly retrogressing if demand is higher. If EB2 ROW retrogresses (before FB/EB spillover is applied), then EB2 India and EB2 China will become unavailable. This is because India and China are the top two countries consuming visas and hence they would use up their quota before the rest of world does.

EB3 India: Demand in this category decreased from 1175 to 650 til Jan 1, 2004. Similarly cumulative demand in this category shows a downward decline till Jan 1, 2007 (total demand decrease of about 1,000). However demand is still too high in this category. Hence per Charles Oppenheim prediction, EB3 India will continue to move forward around 2 weeks per month.

EB3 Philippines:  The cumulative demand till Jan 1, 2012 decreased from 6,275 to 150. We believe this is a typo (editing mistake); since the total demand till Jan 1, 2007 is already 3,700. Hence the cumulative demand till Jan 1, 2012 for EB3 Philippines should probably be around 6,000 instead of just 150.

Update (April 9): USCIS has published an updated demand data today. EB3 Philippines is now 5,975 which is much closer to 6000 we wrote above.

EB3 ROW: This category in interesting. On positive side, the demand in EB3ROW till Jan 1, 2006 is now ZERO. On negative side the cumulative demand till Jan  1, 2012  increased dramatically to 7825; it increased this month by 4275 (7825-3,550).

Update (April 9): USCIS has published an updated demand data today. EB3ROW is now 2000 (instead of 7825 published yesterday). For last three consecutive months demand is DECREASING continuously by at least 1550 every month in EB3ROW. This means that we can expect dates to rapidly move forward and can reach 2008 in next few visa bulletins (July VB most likely). We will post another article on this topic soon.

Many people don't know that demand data only includes I-485 applications which has been pre-adjudicated and is just awaiting visa numbers. This may include some consular processing cases also. I-485 pending inventory includes all I-485 pending cases (except consular processing).

As USCIS/DOS moves visa bulletin dates forward the cumulative demand will keep increasing. Currently the only way to lower that is (a) porting from EB3 to EB2 category or (b) demand destruction.

Tip: Demand destruction could be due to multiple things: People changing jobs and filing the PERM again (not porting but starting the entire process again), people getting laid off and going back home, people abandoning their GC process because of frustration, people going back home due to better opportunities, multiple PERMs like husband and wife both have PERMs filed, people updating to EB1, people getting married to EB2ROW candidates (or GC holders, US citizens etc). 

EB3 China: Another interesting statistics is EB3 China. Unlike EB2 China, there is not much demand in EB3 China category till Jan 2012. This is interesting because demand from China has/had increased in EB1, EB2 and EB5 categories. Also visas available for EB3 China will now be available to EB3 ROW.

Conclusion: If porting demand from EB3 India to EB2 India continues at current rate of 300 per month (or 3600 per year), it would quickly use up the 2802 annual quota for EB2 India (excluding any spillovers). Similarly EB2 India could retrogress if porting demand is higher and before FB/EB spillovers is applied.

The latest demand data includes demand only till Dec 31, 2011. It does not include demand for last 15 months (Jan 2012 to March 2013). Hence it would be hard to predict how much FB and EB spillovers would be allocated to EB2 India this fiscal year. Due to this heavy demand, DOS would probably wait till July to allocate these spillovers.

Also I-485 pending inventory does not include demand from US consulates around the world (also called consular processing). Demand data may include some consular processing cases.

Consular processing account for about 15% of total 140,000 visas in EB category. Also the demand data (and I-485 pending inventory) does not include applicants (and their dependents) who have approved I-140 but have not yet filed I-485 application. Hence actual demand is typically around 15% higher than that posted in monthly demand data.

Update: DOS has released waiting list: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

If you are not aware, spillovers  refers to visas in other categories (EB4, EB5, EB1) that DOS thinks would not be used up this fiscal year. Per law, any unused visas would flow to retrogressed categories in this order: EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 -- > EB3.

Unused visas also fall across the category to most retrogressed country. Example: EB2 ROW --> EB2 India

Before assigning spillovers, Charles Oppenheim (DOS Chief)  has to make a best and worst case estimate of how many visas will be unused per category this fiscal year. Due to fluctuating demand in EB2, he might wait till July to assign expected spillovers (else if his estimates are incorrect, many people in EB4, EB5 and EB1 category may not get the visas - though they would only have to wait few more months before the next fiscal year starts). Also if his spillover estimates are higher, he may retrogress dates in September Visa Bulletin to make sure that visa count stays within permissible limits. Hopefully this article gives a quick overview of how things work "behind the scenes" and help answer your questions.

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55 comments:

  1. Just like EB3 Philippines, the demand for EB3ROW is probably a typo as well, 1825 instead of 7825...no way the demand increasing by over 4000 without significant cutoff date movement.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am guessing you meant to write 7825 instead of 3550. There is a small chance that it could also be a typo for EB3ROW. It can also mean USCIS has "updated" their data to current values (after doing some spring cleaning).

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the reply! I meant 7825, the last row of EB3ROW demand. Last month it was 3550, and I expect it to be some number between 1000 and 2000 this month. So 7825 really surprised me and I think it might be a typo for 1825. (Number 1 and 7 could be confused sometime if poor handwriting.)

      In your analysis you mentioned that this increase could be spouse/children whose 485 recently submitted. I agree, but if this trend also appear for other countries like EB3China.

      Delete
    3. Oh, thanks for the clarification on 7825, 1825 and 3550 numbers. I doubt that would be a typo DUE to bad handwriting (since these would be calculated on excel spreadsheet and not by hand).

      Regarding EB3 China, there seems to be ZERO demand till Jan 2009. From China the demand is higher in EB1, EB2 and EB5 categories.

      Delete
    4. Thanks again for your comments. I guess the cutoff date will probably tell us more about the demand data.

      BTW, your blog is awesome.

      Delete
    5. That is so sweet of you. Thank you SO much :)

      Delete
    6. A small correction. You wrote "I guess the cutoff date will probably tell us more about the demand data."

      Actually it is opposite. The Visa Bulletin cut off date is based on the Demand Data.

      Every month DOS first releases the demand data telling us how many pre adjudicated case are there.

      Based on these numbers, DOS (Department of State) moves the visa bulletin dates forward or retrogresses them (if demand is much higher than supply).

      The person who creates the visa bulletin every month is Charles Oppenheim. He is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting" Division.

      Delete
  2. So based on the increase in demand for EB3 ROW. Is it likely ROW won't cross into 2008 this FY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a good question. I will have to get back to you little later (more number crunching)...

      Delete
    2. Later today or after the visa bulletin?

      Delete
    3. This answer is little complicated. We dont know how much demand will increase in the next three months.

      USCIS assigns the total visas every quarter. So EB3ROW will receive 38862/4 = 9715.5 visas per quarter. This number includes 18000 extra spillovers. So we know that the supply is 9715.5 visas per quarter or 3238.5 per month.

      Demand this month increased by 4275 for a total of 7,825 visas just for the period of Jan 2007 to Aug 2007.

      If demand continues to increase at this rate then EB3ROW might not reach Jan 2008.

      However, USCIS likes to know ahead of time how many applicants are in the pipeline. So there is STILL a probability that they might move dates to Jan 2008 or Feb 2008 between July and Sept 2013 VB. Then once the real demand is known, they can retrogress the dates back to 2007. They have done this few times with EB2India and other categories. So it is certainly possible they might do this again (so as not to waste visa - since some I485 cases could take longer to process).

      Delete
    4. Its possible that the May 2013 VB could be published on Wednesday (April 10) instead of on Tuesday (April 9).

      Delete
  3. Assuming the new EB3ROW number is accurate, is there any chance the priority date cutoff for this category will retrogress in May??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dates for EB3 ROW should not retrogress in May VB, since there are enough visas leftover to cover this increase in demand.

      Delete
  4. Hello Guys.

    My PD is Dec. 6 2006 (CP) EB3P. What are the chances my PD will be current this FY?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If demand does not increase, it can be around 8-10 months.

      Lots of things change every month. So the number given today may change next month.

      Delete
    2. Appreciate your immidiate reply. Sorry but as a newbie here i tend to get mix up with immigration jargons. What exactly do you mean by "around 8-10 months", is it the numerical monthly movement or does it refer to August-October?

      Again, Thank you.

      Delete
    3. I apologize for the confusion. It means 8-10 months from today. So somewhere around Dec 2013 or Jan 2014 VB the dates COULD move to Dec 2006.

      Since there are MANY factors which affects date movements and these factors changes EVERY month - please do not rely completely on this date. It could be few months before or after too.

      Delete
  5. They just updated DD for EB3ROW is now 2000, which is what i was expecting. you may need to revise your analysis as someone at USCIS screwed up big time.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the heads up :)

      Both the articles related to May 2013 Demand Data has been updated with these changes. EB3ROW should move to 2008 soon :)

      Delete
  6. So in your article, you mention that the date for EB2 india will move to 2007 -2008 taking into account the spill overs and then in the "Tip" section you mention that the dates for India can retrogress for to late 2004... Why is that way? Are you saying that this could be the case if the spill over is not applied.

    Also, if 18K spill over was applied then in your opinion, wil 2008 or can they retrogress

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 18,000 spillovers are valid for fiscal year 2013 only (Oct 1, 2012 to Sept 30, 2013).

      Since (EB) spillovers are applied in last quarter, EB2 India will move to 2007 or 2008 from July 2013 to Sept 2013 VB only. All these 18,000 spillovers should be fully consumed in these three months.

      Once the new fiscal year starts (on October 1, 2013), EB2 India will retrogresses back to around 2004, since there are no NEW spillovers in the NEW fiscal year.

      Delete
    2. So are you saying E2-I and E-ROW will roughly have the same PDs around July-Sept 2013 VBs?

      Delete
    3. Do you mean "would EB2 India and EB2 ROW have same dates"?

      That would not be the case. EB2ROW should be current. Whereas EB2 India will still be "retrogressed" (move forward) to around 2007 or 2008 dates from July to Sept VB.

      Delete
    4. My bad i meant EB3-ROW...

      Delete
    5. It is too early to say the dates for Sept VB. It is possible that EB3ROW could be little ahead than EB2 India

      EB2 India demand will include EB2 India applicants and demand from applicants porting from EB3 India.

      EB3 ROW demand will only include EB3 ROW applicants.

      Delete
  7. Amazon: My PD is 05/2009. Any estimates when it may become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are EB2 ROW, you are already current in April VB.

      Delete
  8. My PD is 05/2011. China Mainland. Any estimates when it will become current?
    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will depend on the EB/FB category.

      Delete
    2. My PD is 05/2011. EB2 China Mainland. Any estimates when it will become current?
      Thanks in advance.

      Delete
    3. The number of applicant between April 2010 and May 2011 are unknown. It would not be possible to currently give estimate that far since EB2 China is currently at May 2008.

      EB2 China will get a small spillover from FB category (additional 361 visas). However it is unlikely to get any EB1, EB4 and EB5 spillovers.

      Delete
  9. Hi, if my PD is Dec-2009 EB-ROW, is it possible to predict when is going to be current (rogh estimate) ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Currently EB3 ROW is at Dec 2007. Since we have no idea how many applicants are there between Aug 2007 and Dec 2009 (as per I485 pending inventory); it would not be possible to give any estimate CURRENTLY on when dates could move to Dec 2009 for EB3 ROW.

      Delete
  10. I have a question, The porting numbers are per month / per year (or) per month for all the years backlogged (I hope I make sense, is it 300 * 5 or just 300?).

    ReplyDelete
  11. my priority date is January 8, 2008 Eb3 Philippines. Any idea when it will be current?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Amazon, any update in demand data ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi anonymous, we are expecting to have the June 2013 demand data around May 8.

      Delete
  13. Hello amazon,
    My PD is may 2010..EB2 India when it will be current.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is too early to currently estimate for that date.

      Delete
  14. According to uscis there was a typo mistake regarding eb3 Philippines demand which is 150 instead of 3 thousand plus. Please enlighten me with the future movement of eb3 Philippines. Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  15. My EB3 ROW priority date is 16 December 2008, any estimation as to when this may become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3 ROW should reach that date in July 2013 VB.

      Delete
  16. MY EB3 ROW Priority date is December 2009, when will it be current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this calculator: www.mygcvisa.com/calculator/

      Delete
  17. Any guess please my pd is Oct 2007 in EB2. This is first time I am publishing this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you in EB2 ROW? If yes, you are already current.

      Delete
  18. Hi Amazon

    Thanks for replying. Appreciate that. I do not know what is EB2 ROW but I applied under EB2 category and I485 has been applied and perm date is Oct 2007. But I believed that the date is Sept 2004 as of June 2013 visa bulletin. So how my date us current, please explain. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  19. Also my finger printing is done and got my EAD card. Advise please

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ROW = Rest Of World. It means all countries except China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

      Based on date I am guessing it is EB2 India category. Currently it is not possible to estimate that far (due to porting from EB3 India to EB2 India using up all available quota).

      Delete
  20. Ok I understand now, yes it is EB2 India

    ReplyDelete

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