Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Updated: EB Category To Receive 18,000 Additional Visas From FB Category

Please note: This news has been CONFIRMED by UCSIS. It is not a rumor or speculation.

Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

For fiscal year 2012 (which ended on September 2012), only 208,000 visas were allotted to family based visa petitions; instead of 226,000. This means about 18,000 visas were unused in the family based category.

According to law, any unused visas from family category will flow to employment based category. This means EB category will be getting an additional 18,000 visas in fiscal year 2013 (October 2012 to September 2013). Also see page 1 of demand data (which was updated on Feb 15), where total is set at 158,000 (instead of usual 140,000).

You must be wondering, would all these 18,000 visas go to EB2 India + China (since in EB categories, spillovers go from EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3). This would not be the case. For spillovers from FB category to EB category, all EB categories would be getting "equal" spillover, as defined by law.


% of total visas in each category
Old Total Visas
(140,000 visas)
New Total Visas
(158,000 visas)
Extra visas per category
EB1
28.6%
40,040
45,188
5,148
EB2
28.6%
40,040
45,188
5,148
EB3
28.6%
40,040
45,188
5,148
EB4
7.1%
9,940
11,218
1,278
EB5
7.1%
9,940
11,218
1,278
Total
100%
140,000
158,000
18,000
 

Does this mean all countries in each category will get equal spillover? The answer is yes. The only difference is the number of visas have increased per country.  Remember each country is limited to 7% in each category.

EB2 Category:
Before: EB2 China can get max 7% * 40040 = 2802 visas.
Now: EB2 China will get 7% * 45188 = 3163 visas  (or 361 additional visas).

In EB2 Category, India and China are the only backlogged countries. Now each country (including India and China) will get 3163 visas each. The remaining unused visas from EB2ROW will flow back to retrogressed countries (EB2 India and EB2 China).

Since EB2 India is at Sept 2004 and EB2 China is at Feb 2008, we expect EB2 India would get most (or all) of the additional unused visas (since USCIS/DOS tries to "level" the priority date for all countries while calculating spillovers in each category).

This could mean EB2 India date could finally start moving forward before July 2013 visa bulletin - assuming EB3 to EB2 porting is low and DOS wants to start allocating FB spillovers this quarter. BTW, if you did not know, EB2 India dates have barely moved forward since May 2012.

It is currently hard to predict the amount of unused visas from EB2ROW to EB2 India (and China) because in the next few months (a) the demand from EB2ROW can increase/decrease and (b) the demand from EB3ROW Porting to EB2ROW can increase/decrease.

EB3 Category:
EB3 category is different. All countries are retrogressed. This mean every country in EB3 category (just like in EB2 category) will get a maximum allocation of 3163 visas (instead of usual 2802 visas) this fiscal year. However (unlike EB2 category), all countries would be using up their allotted visas. This means the visa bulletin dates wont move a lot this fiscal year 2013 in EB3 category.

How soon would USCIS/DOS start allocating these 18,000 spillovers?
Its possible they might have already started slowly allocating them - since the FB "spillovers" are final and won't change. March 2013 Demand Data was initially released on Feb 8 and then updated on Feb 15 with additional 18,000 visas added in the EB category.  March 2013 visa bulletin was released on Feb 11 and in it Charles Oppenheim had made prediction for next three months.

Even though the March VB was released 4 days before demand data was last updated (on Feb 15), it seems that the DOS prediction of date movements might still be valid till the June 2013 visa bulletin (since most of the EB2 extra visas would be going to EB2 India and very small forward expected movement in EB3). Hopefully USCIS/DOS will update their prediction in the next visa bulletin. You can also check the I-485 pending inventory to get an idea of how many people are ahead of  you.

Conclusion:
Remember there will be two different spillovers in the next 1-4 months: (1) From FB to EB (all categories) - around 18,000 and (2) from EB4, EB5 and EB1 to EB2 (all countries) - around 13,000 - predicted by DOS Chief a while back. This is in addition to monthly 2802 visas allotted per country.

This might mean a big movement for EB2 India in July 2013 and August 2013 visa bulletin and small movement  (or small retrogression if demand is much higher) in September 2013 visa bulletin. The retrogression in September 2013 visa bulletin might be necessary to make sure that visa numbers stay within permissible limits in fiscal year 2013 (which ends on September 30).

Note: FB spillover to EB2 India is 361. In addition, EB2 India will  be getting spillovers from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2 ROW (unless they use up all their quota). Due to changing demand each month, we currently cannot estimate how much EB spillover will go to EB2 India.

Many of our readers are wondering why there are so many unused visas left from FB category; especially when there is a huge backlog of over 20 years in some FB categories. It is probably due to miscommunication and/or inaccurate/old numbers passed between various groups involved which is leading to waste of so many visas.

As you may have guessed by now similar waste happens in EB category too. Per law, all unused visas in EB category are are assigned to FB category in next fiscal year. There were many bills introduced in last few years to recapture these unused visas, but none of them passed Congress. Two examples are: H.R. 3119 and H.R. 3012. Charles Oppenheim (DOS Chief) is doing his best to prevent these wastes in both categories.

BTW, in some years, there has been zero wastes (unused visas) -  whereas in some years, there has been more than 140,000 visas allotted. For FY12, EB category received 144,648 visas (Link - scroll to the last page). This means last year EB received over 4,000 unused visas from FB category. EB getting unused visas from FB category has been going on since a long time (1997). The only difference is that the number is huge this year (18,000).

To be precise, FB category was allotted 207,535 visas (instead of 226,000 visas). This means 18,465 extra visas SHOULD be available to EB categories. However, the demand data states that only 18,000 extra visas WOULD be available. This means, as you guessed by now, 465 visas would be "wasted". Also DOS is working to have zero unused visas in FB category by moving dates faster in FB category (so that they would use up the quota faster). This may mean dates for FB category could slightly retrogress in September visa bulletin.

Some people maybe wondering why EB has 7% cap on each country. The reason for the cap is because this cap was adopted from family based category where each country is capped at 7% to allow diversity of immigrants. Hence EB also has a cap of 7% for each country (which is ironical because federal law prohibits discrimination during hiring based on country of origin - but itself restrict employment visas based on country of origin/chargeability).

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38 comments:

  1. Thanks for a detailed analysis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are welcome. We are currently crunching number on how far dates will move based on these spillovers.

      We are just waiting for USCIS to update their data to latest value to get a more accurate dates.

      Delete
    2. Thank you for your detailed analysis.
      Can you please add a bit more detail on EB3 ROW.
      Thank you.

      Delete
  2. Any word that In May 2013 when July bulletien comesn in- there will be a big Moe to Oct 2007?

    ReplyDelete
  3. The July VB should be out around June 10, 2013.

    Also big move in which category?

    ReplyDelete
  4. upon reading this informative article it caught me gloomy because of the sad news that EB3 category won't move a lot this fiscal year 2013... waiting for 6-7yrs now, snail-paced movement...(from philippines)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3 Philippines will get an additional 361 visas this fiscal year - for a total of 3163 visas. This will help move dates little faster.

      Delete
  5. any idea when you think EB2 India will be march 2011 Priority date

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is too early to give an estimated date.

      Delete
  6. Lets hope this pushes the June 2013 visa bulletin a little more. My priority date (EB3 - all other chargeability) is May 2008 and I am hoping this will make me current for filing soon. Do you have any insight on the June 2013 Visa bulletin yet? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are two articles related to EB3 ROW:

      1. Prediction for June 2013 VB
      2. EB3 category Future Date Movements.

      You can find them in right side links (under popular news). Hope this helps.

      Delete
  7. India would get most (or all) of the additional unused visas (since USCIS/DOS tries to "level" the priority date for all countries while calculating spillovers in each category).

    -----

    This is so unfair!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. "Does this mean all countries in each category will get equal spillover? The answer is yes." How can this statement be true if India is going to get all the unused??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are confusing EB and FB spillovers.

      Per FB spillover laws, all countries in each EB category will get equal spillovers. This means each country in each EB category will get additional 361 visas.

      EB spillover is different. EB spillover is EB4+EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3. Since two countries in EB2 category (India and China) are retrogressed, EB2 will use up all EB spillovers and EB3 will not get any spillovers.

      Now within EB2 category, USCIS will first allocate these spillover visas to most retrogressed country (India) till EB2 India date match EB2 China. Once that happens both EB2 India and EB2 China will get equal spillovers.

      Since EB2 India date is 2004 and EB2 China is around 2009, EB2 India will be using all EB spillovers.

      Delete
  9. Is there any latest information on this article about EB2-I movement in June 2013 bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The June VB has not been released yet. It should be out in a day or two.

      Delete
  10. what gonna happen whith FB ????!!! We are waiting almost 11 years... this is not fair...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Every year around one million visas are allotted. Based on pure numbers, FB category gets 66% of total visas. EB category gets only about 14%.

      Currently the demand from FB category is much higher than demand in EB category.

      You can see some more statistics here:
      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/03/green-card-processing-statistics.html

      Delete
  11. Thank you for analysis, I am aware this is kind of unpredictable question ... Given your experience, What would your best guess, when would you think EB2 India will be Apr 2009 Priority date

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are many factors which affects visa bulletin movement. Currently the porting from EB3 India to EB2 is consuming the annual quota for EB2 India. The only way EB2 India can move is due to spillovers from EB and FB categories.

      Since demand changes every month in all categories (EB and FB), it directly affects the amount of spillover available. Hence we cannot estimate the movement that far.

      Delete
    2. Appreciate your response..

      Delete
  12. Thanks for your analysis. What are the chances of PD Nov07 getting GC by SEP 2013?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Different categories and countries have different dates.

      Delete
  13. Thank you, it's very helpful.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Where is the LAW saying FB spillovers to EB category? What section of INA or any ammendments or other LAW documents???
    I tried to google it and I can NOT find any sections saying that, not even above link in 4th paragraph says "According to law". There is nothing written that unused FB visa falls in to EB and also spillsover equally among the country.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks like they updated the document since we linked to it in Feb 2013.

      For law stating that unused FB visas are allotted to EB category, please see this link:

      http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-914.html

      It is in INA 201 (d) (2) (C). It is located just above (e) Worldwide level of diversity immigrants.

      Google wont be helpful unless you know the exact phrase to search for.

      If you open the PDF doc linked under "According to law", under Employment preference, the number is 158,000 (instead of usual 140,000).

      Also the latest demand data shows employment limit at 158,000 (instead of 140,000). Hope this helps.

      Delete
  15. i what to know whats going on F1 please any one can tell me kindly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. F1 (and all other) category has a fixed supply (quota) of visas available per month. If the demand is more than the supply, dates do not move forward in that month.

      Once the demand becomes less than the monthly supply, USCIS/DOS will move dates forward.

      Delete
  16. It states that the FB categories could retrogress in sept but on the projections say that the F3 category should move forward between 3 - 5 weeks, please explain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Every year FB category has a base allocation of 226,000 visas. These are assigned quarterly. Every quarter around 61,000 visas are issued.

      In FY 2012, FB category had 18,000 unused visas. To prevent this wastage again, they have started moving dates forward quickly.

      After moving dates, if they receive enough application to fill the quota of 61,000 in last quarter of FY 2013, they would retrogress dates so that it stays within limits.

      Delete
    2. Can we know the per country and per sub-category count for the 61,000 visas please? thanks.

      Delete
    3. Its the same breakdown as mentioned in each visa bulletin.

      226,000 * 27% = around 61,000

      Since 27% allocation of total visas per quarter by USCIS. So breakdown would be the same percentage as described by law.

      Delete
    4. Thanks for providing detailed analysis.

      Since EB3 China priority date is Jan2009, is it correct to say that all FB spillover for EB3 goes to EB3 India?

      Delete
    5. Actually FB spillover laws are different and each country will get 361 visas.

      Please see this article on EB2 category. It should help answer your questions:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html

      Delete
  17. Hie can you please tell me when will be turn for f4 as my date is 04/2002 ? Can you please tell me how many more moths will take approx. To get medical and all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  18. Hello , I have a latest information about what you want about immigration system, i have also information about Houston Immigration Lawyer.

    ReplyDelete

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