If you missed the original two part blog post about EB2 India, please see below:
Part 1: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html
Part 2: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014-part2.html
Here is the expected visa bulletin movement for fiscal year 2014 for EB2 India.
February 2014: 15 Nov 2004
March 2014: 15 Nov 2004
April 2014: 15 Nov 2004
May 2014: 15 Nov 2004
June 2014: 15 Nov 2004
July 2014 - September 2014: Around February 2009
Why is the dates going to stay at this date till around June 2014? The
main reason is the supply of visa numbers are fixed by congress to around 2800
per country per year in EB2 category. This comes out to 2800/12 = 233
visas per month for EB2 India.
Though the supply of
visa numbers is fixed, the demand is not. Due to EB3 to EB2 porting
(where people in EB3 category can "upgrade" to EB2), there continues to
be high demand for EB2 visas.
the math above, if more than 233 people are upgrading from EB3 to EB2
category every month, the dates for EB2 will not move at all. If demand
is much higher than 233 per month, than the dates could retrogress
The only thing preventing dates from retrogressing further is if it gets spillovers from other categories. EB category is expected to receive around 10,000 visa spillovers from FB category. Since the dates for EB2
china has already reached 2008, most (if not all) of the visa spillovers
should go to EB2 India.
Based on EB I-485 pending statistics,
there are over 12,000 pending application in EB3 till Sept 2004 and
about 700 pending application in EB2 till Sept 2004. This means there is
a high chance that dates will move forward for EB2 India between July 2014 and September 2014 visa bulletins.
One of the
"advantages" of holding the dates at November 2004 for next few months for
EB2 India is preadjudication. This means that for most EB2 people who
had already submitted their I485 application, USCIS would be working on
their application and preadjudicating them. This means their I485
application would be approved and is simply waiting for a visa number to
be available. So whenever the dates move forward from November 2004, these
people with preadjudicated cases will be in front of the line.
the dates move forward and new people who start applying (including
those who upgrade from EB3) will be in the "back" of the line - since
the processing time for EB I-485 application is currently 4+ months.
Per the latest update, there is less demand for EB5 China. This means more visas will flow to EB2.
If you are not familiar with spillovers, it means visas unused in other categories will flow "upwards" as follows:
EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 -- > EB2 --> EB2 (India + China) --> EB3
EB2 India and China will use up all possible spillovers, so there wont
be any spillovers to EB3 category. This is one of the reason many in EB3
are waiting for over 10 years and are eager to upgrade from EB3 to EB2
(from all countries - not just India).
We recommend checking the
demand data and I-485 pending inventory every month to get an idea of
current demand and hence how much visa would be available. This would
give a general idea of how further the dates will move forward each
Also there are many immigration bills introduced in congress this year to fix these issues. You can view a list of them here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/collection-of-latest-immigration-bills.html
EB Category To Receive 10,000 Additional Visas: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/11/eb-category-to-receive-10000-additional.html