The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.
Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS).
Please see the important details below:
EB1 (All Countries): This category is expected to remain current throughout fiscal year 2015.
EB2 ROW (Rest of World): This category is expected to remain current throughout this fiscal year 2015.
EB2 China: This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each visa bulletin. This could change if demand increases from applicants porting from EB3 China to EB2 China. This is not currently likely since EB3 China is again ahead of EB2 China.
EB2 India: This category is expected to retrogress significantly either in November or December visa bulletin. The dates are expected to retrogress to early 2005 and remain there till summer 2015 (around July 2015). This is due to heavy demand from new applicants and applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India category.
For Fiscal year 2014, around 16,000 unused visas were made available to EB2 India category. This resulted in dates moving forward to 2009. For FY 2015, EB2 India has a base quota of around 2,802 visas.
This base quota for EB2 India is sufficient for applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India even when dates have retrogressed to 2005. Hence there is no forward movement expected till around June or July 2015 when spillovers from other categories will (mostly) go to EB2 India.
For fiscal year 2014, EB2 India used up around 3,000 visas even when dates had retrogressed to 2004.
EB3 ROW (Rest of World): EB3 ROW is expected to continue to move forward significantly over the next few months to increase demand. This is because DOS has finished processing high number of cases in year 2007. Hence it has started moving dates forward for next few months to generate higher demand.
EB3 China: Rapid forward movement is expected in this category for next few months. Demand may increase if applicants from EB2 China port to EB3 China.
EB3 India: Due to high volume of pending application (25,000-30,000 till around July 2007), very small movement is expected in EB3 India. DOS is expecting around 1-2 weeks movement every month. The movement may increase as more applicants port from EB3 India to EB2 India category.
EB4 (All Countries): The demand continues to increase in this category. This may result in retrogression either towards end of FY 2015 or early 2016.
EB5 (All Countries): For the first time, demand in this category was sufficient to meet the quota of 10,000 visas in FY 2014. Around 85% of demand is from applicants from China. This may result in retrogression in EB5 China in 2015.
Visa Bulletin Predictions - Family Based:
Here are the predictions for the next several months:
F1: This category is expected to advance by 2-3 weeks per month.
F2A: This category is expected to advance by 3-5 weeks per month.
F2B: This category is expected to advance by 6-8 weeks per month.
F3: This category is expected to advance by 1-3 weeks per month.
F4: This category is expected to advance by 2-4 weeks per month.
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