Thursday, August 14, 2014

September 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For September 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here:

Please see below analysis of September 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1200-1400 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300-600 per month. 

EB2 China: EB2 China did not move forward  in this visa bulletin. However it is likely to continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month.

EB2 India: The fourth biggest jump was in EB2 India category which moved forward by around 3 months.  We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. As many of you expected, DOS has predicted retrogression in November due to large demand from (a) applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India  (since they have been waiting in EB3 India category for more than a decade) and (b) applicants who are filing I-485 for the first time.

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: As expected, EB3 ROW did not move forward in this visa bulletin, after retrogressing by 1.5 years in the July visa bulletin. Due to previous low demand, this category had moved forward by more than few years. This resulted in them receiving enough applications to meet the quota for 2014.

EB3 China: Similar to EB2 China, EB3 China also did not move forward. In  previous visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.

EB3 China Other workers category also did not move forward.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also did not move forward, after retrogressing by 1.5 years.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category also did not moved forward. Due to high demand, this category is expected to move forward by one week in the next visa bulletin. The good news is that many applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India. Hence the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand.

EB3 Philippines: The second biggest forward movement in all category again was in EB3 Philippines. This category moved forward by 10 months. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2015.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by just 8 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 7 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was a huge movement in any F2A category, after significant (around 16 months) retrogression in earlier visa bulletin. F2A (all countries except Mexico) moved forward by 8 months. F2A Mexico moved forward by more than 1 year. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 8 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 6 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 7 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India did not move forward. Philippines moved forward by 5 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 4 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also did not move forward. Philippines moved forward by 7 week. Mexico category moved forward by 3 week.

If you have not done it yet, please remember to add your case data to GC tracker: tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

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  1. I hope EB3 Phils will reach PD March 2012 on OCT. VB.

  2. Cuando estara la f2a para mexico noviembre 1 2013, alguien tenga alguna respuesta.

  3. En octubre se moverá más, esperemos llegue a 2013.

    1. Ok. Gracias por tu respuesta, esperemos el fy 2015...

  4. Cuando publicarán la predicción de octubre gracias

  5. Cuando publicarán la predicción de octubre gracias

  6. Amazon, can you please provide your prediction on October 2014 visa bulletin? Thanks

  7. Hi Amazon,

    Can you do some guess for October and November bulletins ? Can you just give out some month/year ? I want to know what you think. Your work on the web is much appreciated.


  8. Hi the priority date moves forward for 8 mnths ...thats a great question is these visas are utilized from 2014 fiscal year..or from 2015....if from 2014..can we see further movement in fiscal year pd is 10/8/2013..i hope it will be current soon

  9. F1 ROW moved only 1 week in september not 4


  11. May the f2b move fast forward,thanks patient 😍


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