Monday, March 11, 2013

Predictions: Visa Bulletin May 2013

For official May 2013 Visa Bulletin please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/visa-bulletin-may-2013.html

Please see below prediction for May 2013 Visa Bulletin (for both Family Based and Employment Based):

Quick Summary:
  • EB1, EB4, EB 5: Current
  • EB2 Rest Of World: Current
    EB2 China: 6 weeks
    EB2 India: 0 week. See article: EB2 India Analysis & Prediction
  • EB3: 1 week to 2 months
  • F1 to F4: 1 week to 4 months

Please Note: These numbers includes the 18,000 additional visas (spillovers) from FB category to EB category. USCIS seems to have started slowly applying these spillovers to EB categories.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
F1 08APR06 08APR06 08APR06 08AUG93 15JUN99
F2A 15JAN11 15JAN11 15JAN11 01JAN11 15JAN11
F2B 15MAY05 15MAY05 15MAY05 22MAR93 15AUG02
F3 01AUG02 01AUG02 01AUG02 01APR93 22OCT92
F4 08MAY01 08MAY01 08MAY01 15SEP96 15SEP89

Employment Based: 

Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 15MAY08 01SEP04 C C
3rd 22AUG07 01JUL07 22DEC02 22AUG07 15SEP06
Other Workers 22AUG07 01SEP03 22DEC02 22AUG07 15SEP06
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th Targeted Employment Areas/Regional Centers and Pilot Programs C C C C C


Also we will update this table as we get more numbers to crunch. If you are interested, the numbers above are based on following data:


Recommended Reading:


More Reading:

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45 comments:

  1. Is this a typo: EB3Maxico in front of EB3ROW ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice Catch :)

      I updated EB3Mexico from 01SEP07 to 22AUG07.

      For those who did not understand, here is the reason: EB3 Mexico gets 2802 visas per year. The reason there is a separate column for Mexico country is that demand from THAT country is higher than ROW (Rest Of World).

      If demand decreases, then it would be "lumped" together with ROW. Hence the dates for EB3 Mexico and EB3ROW would become the same.

      Delete
  2. Hey LIN...Thanks for the prediction breakdown. Quick question. Do you think PDs for EB3-ROW will reach 08 this FY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi there, we are still crunching the numbers and will post those in few weeks. From rough estimates, EB3 ROW should reach Jan 2008 around September/October 2013 Visa Bulletin.

      PS: It could be few weeks earlier if porting rate (from EB3 to EB2) is high.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your quick feedback...looking forward to your future analysis...much appreciated.

      Delete
    3. You are welcome. Also remember EB category is getting 18,000 spillover visas from FB category (article link on right side of this post).

      EB3 ROW will be getting additional 4426 spillover visas.

      The estimate above does NOT include these huge spillovers numbers (number crunching still going on) :)

      The I-485 pending inventory for EB3ROW is till Aug 2007 only. There is no numbers listed after that date.

      Assuming a demand of 1000 per month and using these additional spillovers, EB3 ROW could reach Jan 2008 even in July 2013 Visa Bulletin (assuming USCIS/DOS decides to apply entire spillover in one month).

      I would say EB3ROW would reach Jan 2008 date between July 2013 and September 2013 Visa Bulletin.

      DOS may even decide to move VB dates further to "fill the pipeline". This helps them have an accurate measure of how much demand is there for visas. EB3 ROW may even go to April 2008 by August/September 2013 VB.

      Delete
    4. The reason EB3ROW can reach April 2008 is as follows:

      USCIS/DOS do not have any idea of demand in EB3ROW after Aug 2007. Currently it takes 3-5 months to process I-485 applications. To prevent wastage of visas, there is a high probability that DOS may decided to move dates to April 2008 in July/Aug 2013 Visa Bulletin.

      By having more applications, there is a high chance that visas wont be wasted (since some applications takes longer to process that others). I am guessing Ombudsman is not happy with USCIS not using 18000 visas in FB category. They are preventing this by moving dates faster in all categories.

      Delete
    5. Well i have been hearing about this 18,000 spillover visas from FB category. Will this be factual usage or just speculation? Where does the 18,000 visas sprung up from?

      Once again thanks for your insights!

      Delete
    6. Its a fact that EB category will receive 18000 unused visas from FB category.

      Here is the FULL article on that: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html

      It has lots of links (in blue) to help you understand this spillovers. USCIS have also updated their official document (demand data) and added this 18000 extra visas to it. So its 100% official directly from USCIS (and not just rumors).

      Feel free to post comments/questions on that page. I would be happy to answer them. :)

      Delete
    7. Ok LIN...thanks for the clarity :). I will keep the correspondence.

      Delete
  3. hello,
    thank you soooo much for your number crunching.
    we are in Eb3 ROW with PD 28 april 08...so you really enlightened us by letting us know the possibilities.
    I have 1 question. if they extend to april 15, say by september, then it means they will take 4 months to "consume" them and then in 2014 they will go beyond april 15 (as an example)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi there. Let me see if I understand your question. You are asking if September 2013 VB goes to April 15, 2007 for EB3 ROW, then it should reach Apr 28, 2008 by Jan 2014 VB?

      USCIS works little differently. USCIS Fiscal year 2014 starts from October 1, 2013 and ends on Sept 30, 2014. These 18000 spillovers should be used by FY 2013 (which ends on September 30, 2013). After that USCIS will allot the normal quota on a quarterly basis.

      This means that EB3ROW should reach around May 1, 2008 by either November 2013 VB or December 2013 VB.

      USCIS hasnt published current demand between Aug 2007 and Apr 2008. If demand is higher between people whose dates are between Aug 2007 and April 2008, then EB3 ROW should reach May 2008 in Jan 2014 VB.

      Delete
  4. Any chance the priority dates for EB3ROW moving to November 07 in the next VB (May 2013)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi there, the probability of EB3ROW going from July 2007 (in April VB) to November 2007 (in May VB) is less than 5%.

      However there is over 80% probability that it will reach Nov 07 in June VB.

      Delete
  5. Thank you for your response. My thinking was that given the low 485 inventory of approximately only 2000 going into May (based on previous monthly net usage of 1550) as well as appx 4500 additional visas allocated to EB3ROW, and 4-6 month processing of 485s, I thought that they would start moving dates a bit more aggressively in order to generate sufficient demand before the end of FY 2013 in order not to waste any visas.

    Also if CIR was to pass in June/July, any indication of when it would become effective?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is very good analysis. Here are few reasons why uscis MAY not move it by 5 months in next VB:

      1. The pending I485 inventory includes applicants till Aug 2007 only. We do not currently know how much is demand after that. There is high possibility that applicants may have married in the last 5 years (since Aug 2007) and have a spouse and kid. This means the demand will increase from just 1 person to 3 person per applications. Assuming only 1000 primary applicants per month from Aug to Nov 2007, the demand could be anywhere from 4000 to 12,000 (for 4 months).

      2. USCIS current processing time (last updated yesterday on April 1) is 4 months for I-485 processing. Hence the best time to start moving dates (aggressively) would be from June VB. This would give enough time so as to not waste unused visas (according to USCIS metrics - not mine :))

      3. Also remember demand data and I-485 does not include any consular processing cases (which is typically 15%). So actual demand is 15% higher than what we know from these two docs.

      4. EB3 ROW will also receive extra 4426 visas (from 18000 FB spillovers). Based on number crunching, it seems USCIS has already started applying these spillovers. However it seem they are going to apply it slowly every month; instead of applying all of them in one month. This might help with steady and fast movements of dates across EB3 categories.

      Based on 2007 and 2012 huge movement and big retrogression, USCIS/DOS may not be too keen to move dates forward quickly (except for FB category where they said they would move it faster).

      Regarding CIR, Charles Oppenheim's office is currently monitoring all immigrations bills and is ready as soon as any of them passes. Bills are effective immediately as soon as they become law. Here is a good article on this:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/how-bill-becomes-law.html

      Delete
    2. DOS finally realized that by not advancing, slowing of 485 processing at TSC and barely any new demand, there would potentially be wasted visas. Great movement.

      Delete
    3. Yeah. The dates should move faster in other categories too - in the next few VBs

      Delete
  6. I have a PD of early AUG2008 and EB2I, so basically I am SOL this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. By "this year", do you mean this fiscal year (till Sept 2013) or calendar year 2013?

      Based on FB spillover EB2 India should reach around 2007 or early 2008 in July/Aug 2013 VB.

      Delete
  7. Thank you..by ed of year I meant USCIS year end Sep 2013 and after that its getting retrogressed way back anyways...So I am indeed SOL!

    ReplyDelete
  8. I am 7th January 2003 PD for EB3-I. When you do you think my PD will become current? Especially in light of the spillover from family based.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will be publishing an article soon on how far dates will move from July to Sept VB based on these 18000 spillovers.

      Delete
  9. Hi there! I'm F3 category, and my priority date is July 1993, when do you think my priority date becomes current. actually my priority date becomes current already before, but suddenly retrogressed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would depend on which country you are from. Each country have different dates.

      Delete
  10. I am currently on EAC working as a nurse in the United States. I am a filipino citizen but applied for my EB3 here in the US on July 23, 2007. Am I under the ROW category or Philippines category as shown in the visa bulletin website? My EAC card expires on Aug 13, 2013. Should I wait for my GC next month since under the ROW category, the current visa priority date is July 1, 2007 or should I renew on May 13, 2013 (90 days before EAC card expires)? I don't want to be out of status but at the same time I don't want to waste paying for renewal of my EAC if the GC is about to arrive prior to my EAC expiring. Please advise. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would strongly recommend talking to lawyer about this, since every case is different and lawyer can give you a better idea on what is correct for your individual case.

      Regarding whether you are EB3 ROW or EB3 Philippines - it really depends. If your parents or spouse is from country other than Philippines and India/china/Mexico, than your country of chargeability CAN be eb3 row.

      If your parents and spouse are from philippines, then your country of chargeability COULD be EB3 Philippines.

      Primarily it depends on which eb3 category your case was submitted in. You lawyer (who filed the application) can guide you correctly on this.

      Delete
  11. The May 2013 visa bulletin was released. Good news to EB 3 Mexico, it moved by 5 months! So what are the chances, If my priority date is Dec. 15 2008? I hope very soon,(maybe by the end of this FY). Thanks for your reply and or predictions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would depend on your category/country. Are you also EB3 Mexico?

      Delete
    2. EB3 Mexico (and EB3ROW) could move to Aug 2008 by Aug/Sept VB. If demand is higher in new fiscal year (starting from Oct 2013 VB), both categories could retrogress - since USCIS/DOS only allocates maximum of 25% visas every quarter.

      We will have to wait for updated pending inventory to see how many applicants + dependents have applied.

      Delete
    3. Thanks for your reply, I don't really think Worldwide and Mexico EB3 could retrogress.

      Maybe we will see a retrogression for India EB2 and EB3, that is very likely to happen. If that's the case, the CIR is almost ready.

      Delete
  12. my pd is dec 11 2006,what are your predictions in regards to the eb3 phil.? when will it be my pd to be current?..any guess? thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rough estimate is around 10-12 months.

      Delete
  13. Do you believe DOS may decide to move VB dates further to "fill the pipeline" after this year's spillovers just like they did with EB2-I Q1 of last fiscal. My Priority date is feb 2009 and i missed the bus last year. I need to get EAD and get a bit of move on with my professional life.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, DOS has started moving dates in EB3ROW, EB3 Mexico and EB3 China. It will start moving dates ahead in EB2 India also very soon.

      Delete
  14. Hi my PD is December 2010 and I am in EB3. I know this is a long way to go, but how many more years do you predict it will take for my PD to become current? Also do you think they will make EB3 category become current any time soon, like they did in 2007?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is really hard to predict that far. Charles Oppenheim had predicted that EB3 India based on current demand would move by 1-2 weeks every month. So that could give you a rough idea.

      One of the reason they made EB categories as current is to "fill the pipeline" and give them a good idea of how many cases are there. Since they have a very good idea now, they may not decide to do it again for a while.

      See this article for more details:
      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/new-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-dos.html

      Part 2 also have more useful details.

      Delete
  15. I am in Category of F4 (All areas excepted those)Family Based visa my papers had been submitted in November 2003. I want to confirm my priority date how much time it will take to migrate USA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is currently too early to estimate the date. We are waiting for updated data from Charles Oppenheim (from Visa Office).

      Delete
  16. Just curious when can I expect my GC - PD is 2008 Oct on EB2, Thanks in advance !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Different countries have different dates.

      Delete
  17. Hi My priority date was 13 Sep 2002, I guess i missed it, now what please suggest..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/07/fb-category-frequently-asked-questions.html

      Delete
  18. http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculatOR/

    this says it should be current.. F3 visa India

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, F3 India is at Dec 2002. That means your PD is current.

      Delete

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