Updated Analysis: May 2013 Demand Data

For May 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/demand-data-for-may-2013-visa-bulletin.html

Demand Data Analysis:

Every month each country in each category is eligible to get 233 visas (7% * 28.6% * 140,000)/12. This does not include the 18,000 additional spillover from FB category to EB category in FY 2013.

EB2 India: Till Jan 2005, the numbers went up from 375 to 425. This means there was 425 -375+233=283 cases ported. The porting rate is remaining constant around 300 cases per month in EB2 India category. Similarly the numbers increase by 125 to 450 per month for other time periods (year 2006 to 2010).

Based on analysis, the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India should remain around 300 per month for month of June and July 2013. For the month of August 2013 and September 2013, the porting rate could easily increase to 1000+ per month.

The is because in FY 2013, EB category will be getting 18000 unused visa from FB categories.  Hence USCIS/DOS will most likely move dates forward in July 2013 VB for EB2 India to around 2007-2008. We will soon publish another post on how far EB2 India and other categories could go from July to Sept VB.

Tip: There is over 95% probability that the dates for EB2 India can retrogress back to Dec 2004 (or early 2005) from FY 2014 - which is from October 2013 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 China:  The demand prior to Jan 2009 has decreased  by 400 (2,975 to 2,575). Since there is no demand in EB2 China before Jan 2009, all of FB/EB spillover in EB2 category should be applied to EB2 India (which is backlogged till Sept 2004).

EB2 ROW: The demand in this category is fixed at 150 till Jan 2012. We do not know the demand from Jan 2012 to March 2013. If the annual demand this fiscal year is much higher than 34,436 (40040-2802-2802 for EB2 ROW-India-China) or 34436/12=2870 per month, than this category would retrogress.

Charles Oppenheim had hinted on this category possibly retrogressing if demand is higher. If EB2 ROW retrogresses (before FB/EB spillover is applied), then EB2 India and EB2 China will become unavailable. This is because India and China are the top two countries consuming visas and hence they would use up their quota before the rest of world does.

EB3 India: Demand in this category decreased from 1175 to 650 til Jan 1, 2004. Similarly cumulative demand in this category shows a downward decline till Jan 1, 2007 (total demand decrease of about 1,000). However demand is still too high in this category. Hence per Charles Oppenheim prediction, EB3 India will continue to move forward around 2 weeks per month.

EB3 Philippines:  The cumulative demand till Jan 1, 2012 decreased from 6,275 to 150. We believe this is a typo (editing mistake); since the total demand till Jan 1, 2007 is already 3,700. Hence the cumulative demand till Jan 1, 2012 for EB3 Philippines should probably be around 6,000 instead of just 150.

Update (April 9): USCIS has published an updated demand data today. EB3 Philippines is now 5,975 which is much closer to 6000 we wrote above.

EB3 ROW: This category in interesting. On positive side, the demand in EB3ROW till Jan 1, 2006 is now ZERO. On negative side the cumulative demand till Jan  1, 2012  increased dramatically to 7825; it increased this month by 4275 (7825-3,550).

Update (April 9): USCIS has published an updated demand data today. EB3ROW is now 2000 (instead of 7825 published yesterday). For last three consecutive months demand is DECREASING continuously by at least 1550 every month in EB3ROW. This means that we can expect dates to rapidly move forward and can reach 2008 in next few visa bulletins (July VB most likely). We will post another article on this topic soon.

Many people don't know that demand data only includes I-485 applications which has been pre-adjudicated and is just awaiting visa numbers. This may include some consular processing cases also. I-485 pending inventory includes all I-485 pending cases (except consular processing).

As USCIS/DOS moves visa bulletin dates forward the cumulative demand will keep increasing. Currently the only way to lower that is (a) porting from EB3 to EB2 category or (b) demand destruction.

Tip: Demand destruction could be due to multiple things: People changing jobs and filing the PERM again (not porting but starting the entire process again), people getting laid off and going back home, people abandoning their GC process because of frustration, people going back home due to better opportunities, multiple PERMs like husband and wife both have PERMs filed, people updating to EB1, people getting married to EB2ROW candidates (or GC holders, US citizens etc). 

EB3 China: Another interesting statistics is EB3 China. Unlike EB2 China, there is not much demand in EB3 China category till Jan 2012. This is interesting because demand from China has/had increased in EB1, EB2 and EB5 categories. Also visas available for EB3 China will now be available to EB3 ROW.

Conclusion: If porting demand from EB3 India to EB2 India continues at current rate of 300 per month (or 3600 per year), it would quickly use up the 2802 annual quota for EB2 India (excluding any spillovers). Similarly EB2 India could retrogress if porting demand is higher and before FB/EB spillovers is applied.

The latest demand data includes demand only till Dec 31, 2011. It does not include demand for last 15 months (Jan 2012 to March 2013). Hence it would be hard to predict how much FB and EB spillovers would be allocated to EB2 India this fiscal year. Due to this heavy demand, DOS would probably wait till July to allocate these spillovers.

Also I-485 pending inventory does not include demand from US consulates around the world (also called consular processing). Demand data may include some consular processing cases.

Consular processing account for about 15% of total 140,000 visas in EB category. Also the demand data (and I-485 pending inventory) does not include applicants (and their dependents) who have approved I-140 but have not yet filed I-485 application. Hence actual demand is typically around 15% higher than that posted in monthly demand data.

Update: DOS has released waiting list: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

If you are not aware, spillovers  refers to visas in other categories (EB4, EB5, EB1) that DOS thinks would not be used up this fiscal year. Per law, any unused visas would flow to retrogressed categories in this order: EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 -- > EB3.

Unused visas also fall across the category to most retrogressed country. Example: EB2 ROW --> EB2 India

Before assigning spillovers, Charles Oppenheim (DOS Chief)  has to make a best and worst case estimate of how many visas will be unused per category this fiscal year. Due to fluctuating demand in EB2, he might wait till July to assign expected spillovers (else if his estimates are incorrect, many people in EB4, EB5 and EB1 category may not get the visas - though they would only have to wait few more months before the next fiscal year starts). Also if his spillover estimates are higher, he may retrogress dates in September Visa Bulletin to make sure that visa count stays within permissible limits. Hopefully this article gives a quick overview of how things work "behind the scenes" and help answer your questions.

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