Thursday, May 1, 2014

Visa Bulletin 2014 Prediction from Charles Oppenheim

On Monday April 21, 2014 Mr. Charlie Oppenheim (CO), Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State spoke to AILA members about latest visa demand and his predictions for the upcoming visa bulletin movement.

General: The National Visa Center (NVC) is now sending out requests for payments 8 to 12 months in advance of the priority date becoming current. The NVC had previously been contacting applicants 12 to 18 months in advance. Applicants processing abroad appear to be waiting until their priority date is current, or almost current, to pay the fees.

This could be to avoid the long delay where the visa fees are held without a visa being issued. Once payment is received, it helps the Visa Office confirm the actual demand overseas.

The Visa Office expects to be able to make predictions regarding F2A Rest of World (ROW), EB3 ROW and EB3 China in May (see below) which could be realized in the July Visa Bulletin, or perhaps sooner.

F2A All Countries:
  • Demand is starting to catch up. F2A Mexico will retrogress soon and more than the ROW reported dates. It appears that the F2A ROW category will also retrogress, perhaps back to 2012 in the June or July Visa Bulletin.
  • Why the retrogression? USCIS seems to be processing more approvals. It is possible that some F2A beneficiaries were holding off on filing for green cards in anticipation of comprehensive immigration reform, and demand is now “catching up” to the posted dates.
  • 85% to 95% of these cases are processed at U.S. consulates.
  • The CO was not able to confirm whether I-601 processing by USCIS had a positive or negative impact on the demand for visa numbers. The NVC may have that data.
F2B All Countries:
  • Demand is down right now, so movement is expected to continue to advance.
  • It is likely the same scenario will occur in the next fiscal year that occurred with WW FB-2A. Specifically, that demand will increase as the category is advanced and then there will be high demand, which will reduce forward movement.

EB1 All Countries:
  • It is still a little early in the fiscal year to know how many unused cases will drop down into EB2. Though EB1 usage is heavier this year than last year, this category is expected to remain current for this fiscal year.
EB2 Rest OF World: 
  • This category is expected to remain current for this fiscal year.
EB2 India:
  • It is possible in August Visa Bulletin (or more likely) in September, that EB2 India will move forward to January 1, 2008 or even later in 2008, in order to utilize the rest of unused EB2 Rest of World numbers.
  • The exact spillover will depend on EB1 and EB2 usage in the worldwide categories for the rest of the fiscal year (it could be 5,000 or more). This would be less than what was available in fiscal year 2013.
EB3 Rest of World:
  • The CO has limited knowledge as to the number of eligible applicants, and USCIS has encouraged DOS to move the dates forward over the last 5 months. Demand appears to be increasing, thus, it is unlikely in the short run that the category will move forward. In fact, if current demand continues, something may have to be done as early as May 2014 to slow the demand in this category.
  • The last quarter of the fiscal year for 2014 does not look good, and no movement (or retrogression), is possible. EB3 ROW could retrogress as early as June 2014 or July 2014.
EB3 China:
  • Many Chinese nationals who were waiting in the EB2 category have been filing to “downgrade” from EB-2 to EB-3, and the result of these requests will be reflected in the coming months.
  • High demand is expected to continue in this category and a correction may be reflected as early as the May or June Visa Bulletin, depending on demand.
  • If F2A China retrogresses because of the F2A ROW retrogression discussed above, the unused FB demand could be used by EB3 China.  EB3 China could retrogress as early as May or June, so please file cases now if your priority dates are current. The category may not be available as early as May.
EB5 China:
  • China EB5 could retrogress later this year, possibly August or September.
  • Retrogression for EB5 China in the 2015 fiscal year seems almost inevitable, as there are over 7,000 I-526 applications pending and 80% are from China.
  • More on this topic is expected to be known in the next few weeks, and will be shared at an upcoming panel in May with AILA Past-President Bernie Wolfsdorf.

75 comments:

  1. Hi Amazon

    My PD is Feb 2011 (EB2 India). Based on Charles Prediction, Can you estimate if our PD will be current at all this year or next year.

    Thanks in advance!!

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    Replies
    1. My priority date Sep,2008.Based on last few months predictions from multiple sites I was hopeful I would be able get into at least 485 loop by next few months. Now, hearing this news I am very skeptical whether my date will be current or not ? or when will it become current ? Please advise.

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    2. I think you got it .
      Congratulations

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  2. Hi Amazon,

    You predicted for FY2014 that PD will move to around Feb 2009. Do you see any changes to your prediction comparing it with Oppenheim recent prediction.

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  3. Hi amazon, as always, thank you for this update. You have been so kind in giving us this update. My queztion if you dont mind is that in light of the EB3 ROW with the possibility of retrogression as early as June according to Mr. Oppenheim‘s recent predictiin, is there a possibility that EB3 Philippines will retrogress on the following months even basing on the demand data and your presumptions that EB3 Philippines will move will its PD for a couple of months. Hoping to hear from you Amazon.

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    Replies
    1. may 15 2008 next pd

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    2. It's April 30, 2008...

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    3. I hope so..

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  4. Good, first time they gave us some ROW retrogression dates to work with. Hope it will be Dec 2012, not Jan 2012 (if it's 2012..)

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    Replies
    1. amazon any idea which date(for f2a)? hoping it will not regress too much

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    2. Hi Mirek Kren. Please, I need your response. Will F2A ROW be movement in this year? (PD: 08 Sept 2013 ROW) Thanks,

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Hello Amazon,

    Similar to what some of them have posted earlier, what would be most likely month that DOS can move for EB2 India in this summer? They say the spill over from EB1, EB2 Worldwide could be 5000 or more, but definitely less than last year. I'm guessing that Jan 1 2008 for India is most conservative/likely date. With current data in hand, what could be the date based on FB spill over + EB1, EB2 Worldwide spill over + I-485 inventory? If we don't have I-485 inventory, at least what could be the month based on FB spill over + EB1, EB2 Worldwide spill over?

    Please let us know as your analysis is very helpful.

    Thank you very much.

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  7. Hi Amazon,
    Thank for ur information. I have a question for eb3 india. What is Mr.Charles Oppenheim prediction for eb3 India. My PD July 2006 eb3 India. Please let me know.

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  9. Hi amazon do you think philippines wiill remain nov 1 2007 on the next visa bulletin?

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    Replies
    1. Read the prediction for June anonymous in Philippines.

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    2. Yea i know, but based on the prediction of Charles O. It might start retrogese this coming month

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    3. I think EB3 Philippines is not included in the prediction.So i guess it will not retrogress in the next VB.

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    4. Wow ty . I hope you are right

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    5. I don't think eb3 Phil would be retrogress this FY.

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  10. Hey Amazon, Thanks for the update. Is there any prediction on how many months/years dates would be retrogressing for EB3ROW.

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  11. My EB2 India PD is Nov 2008. Very disappointed as I thought finally there will be relief this FY2014.

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  12. My p.d. Oct.2006, India under EB3, catagory, any relief ?

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    Replies
    1. Dear sir,
      I am an Indian nurse with pd.Oct.2006, under eb3 catagory, any possibility seems to get visa by this year?
      awaiting your advise.
      thanking you.

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  13. Hi amazon, an article says that eb3 phil could also retrogress in the last fy quarter, what is your opinion on this.thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What month of fiscal year will be retrogese?

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  14. please amazon give us your insights about oppenheims prediction will this have an effect to eb3 philippines... its kinda scary coz for the past few visa bulletins its moving nicely... please give us your opinion

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  15. My PD is Dec-2-2004 in EB3 India. What are the prediction?
    I am in this country from last 15 years.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi amazon,,,i am an F2B applicant with priority 04 Feb 2008,,, my father naturalize in july 2013,so i have updated my case to F1... Regading visa bulletin movement F2b may become current sooner than F1,,,my question is can i reclassify my case back to F2b??? I am 38 years old and unmarried

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    Replies
    1. Don't worry still young.

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    2. dear if yr father is now naturlized i mean citizen then you are automatically converted to F1.you cant classify your case to f2b.

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    3. No, just wait your PD. To current as f1.

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  17. Sir same po tayo..bibilis na daw ba f2b?

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  18. Amazon, we are waiting for expert comments.

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  19. my pd is jan 2004 eb3 india ..can you estimate when will it become curent ?

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    Replies
    1. amazon please reply

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  20. Hi guys can you predict when will my pd be current? I am an f2a from philippines and my pd is march 26,2013. Case complete but still my pd is not current. Waiting for your reply guys. God bless us all.

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  21. hi.... can you predict when will my pd be current? I am an f2a from Sri Lanka and my pd is 23 july 2013. Case complete but still my pd is not current. Waiting for your reply guys.

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  22. hi,
    My PD for F2a is April 2014. Do you think F2A visas will be current this year.

    thank you

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  23. HI,
    I want your suggestions on the F1(INDIA) category. Is is expected to move forward? MY PD is 2008. What's your view about it?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hi Amazon,
    My PD is July 2006 EB3 India. Any relief. Please give us information about EB3 India. clear the picture

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Amazon, my brother PD for F2A is November 13th 2013. And he did it from my father's permanent residency. Do you think his F2A visa will be current in this year or in August?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi Amazon, my brother PD for F2A is Feb 14th 2014. And he did it from my father's permanent residency. Do you think his F2A visa will be current in this year or in August?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. at least one more year , my PD August 2013 and still waiting

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  27. Hi my category F 1 and my priority date is 28 july 2007 i m submitted all my fees and documents including affidavat if suppoort and submit ds-260 when my interview shedule how much time more i wait

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  28. hi i have priority date of july 2008. I just want to ask when is the estimated date that it would be current? thank you

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  29. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  30. F-1 visa is fairly simple to apply for and lets you stay & travel throughout the U.S as long as you are a student and also provides you opportunity to bring your Spouse and any children under the age of 21 into the country while you are here studying.

    F-1 Visa

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  31. hi do you think F2A visa will be current this year (2014).

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  32. any predictions for eb3 india in coming few months left for 2014 ??

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  33. Hi my category F 1 and my priority date is 28 july 2007 i m submitted all my fees and documents including affidavat if suppoort and submit ds-260 when my interview shedule how much time more i wait

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hi.my PD is 27th February 2002 india on family based .so I want to know about priority date?

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  35. Hi my category F 1 and my priority date is 28 july 2007 i m submitted all my fees and documents including affidavat if suppoort and submit ds-260 when my interview shedule how much time more i wait

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  36. My priority date is dec 15th 2005. Eb3 india . Can anybody guesstimate when i will be current?

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  37. My PD is 12SEP2010 (F1 category). Can you predict when can I expect a visa available for me? - dolphin

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  38. Mr. Charles Oppehniem think about eb3 india. Please take a big jump in EB3 India. EB3 India is backward from other countries. Please.clear the picture of EB3 India.

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  39. Hi I have a question about F3 category Afghanistan priority date june29 2006.

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  40. Hi, My PD is June 2009 EB2, any indications if it will come in 2014 ?

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  41. My pd is nov.12,2012.under category f2a.can I expec it to become current this year?

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  42. hi, good day! May I know or check if when can i get an update to when is the availability of my visa?. Priority date if June 2006. thank u. This is Analyn Cos

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  43. Hi
    My priority date is August 2012, F2A.
    I would like to know how long would it take to get back to sep2012, i completed petition and NCV , just visa remained

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Again
      Priority date August 2012
      F2A Europe

      Delete
  44. Hi,

    My priority date is September 2013 in F2A category and my I-130 got approved couple of days back. Any idea when F2A dates will move forward?

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  45. My pd is may 31 2013 Nvc approved still waiting interview

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  46. Hello my pd is may 19,2005.f2b category. How long to wait to bcum current.tnx

    ReplyDelete
  47. I feel like killing myself right now. Here is my situation.
    NVC gave my husband an appointment for April 24, 2014 when his case number was current. His medical report delayed getting to the embassy where by he had to reschedule his appointment. By that time the available visa appointment was June 16, 2014. He passed the interview the embassy retained his passport and told him he could receive it in 2 weeks time. we have been waiting till july 23, 2014 when i called and was shocked to be told he has no visa available. He has to wait till his case becomes current. I am torn, i just wanna kill myself and forget about this whole thing. I have young children and managing single handed has been a mountain i cannot take anymore. who can help me out?

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  48. hello.. my pd is april 15 2013.. F2A CATEGORY...when we will be current..my case was in NVC...until now i have been waiting...my appointment...THANKS AND GODBLESS..

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  49. Hello

    I'm gonna explain my situation here and any reply will be helpful.
    I am the US Green Card holder, but originally I'm from Georgia(Country). Me and my wife got married in August of 2012 and we send our case to the USCIS in November of the same year, if I remember correctly it was November 7th that our case started in the USCIS. After that, in October of 2013 our case was done in the USCIS and it was sent to the NVC for the next part of it to be completed. On April 16th of 2014 we received an email from the NVC that all the necesarry documents were receved for our case and that as soon as an inteview date had been scheduled we'd be informed about it. So, 3 months and a half has passed from that date and we haven't heard from then about the inteview. I called to the NVC and also to the consulate in Georgia but no help at all. As I know inteview dates are being scheduled witheen a week or a month, and we were not expacting our case to continue processing for so long. If anyone know anything please reply to my comment here. Maybe someone has the same problem or maybe someone filled the application the same time we did, please any help will be thankful.

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  50. HI
    MY PRIORITY DATE IS: JANUARY 22 2004, WHEN ITS LIKELY TO BE AVAILABLE? IF WITHIN THIS YEAR?

    THANK YOU

    ReplyDelete
  51. HI
    MY CATEGORY IS F2B PHILIPPINES, AND MY PRIORITY DATE IS: JANUARY 24 2004, WHEN ITS LIKELY TO BE AVAILABLE? IF WITHIN THIS YEAR?

    THANK YOU

    ReplyDelete
  52. Hi, I m Mansi shah. I was failed my husband f2a last July 2013. This time my file is current based. My husband visa call 29 th may 2014.they r all good. When they take his pasport that day. But when they retun to us without visa stamp. They send a letter our case is right now I'm cuttoff date, so what can I do? Please give me reply

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  53. Hi Sir, My PD is march 2005.we port EB3 to EB2 what are the prediction for this date.

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  54. God help us. Soo much stress n cant wait to become a Us Citizen.

    ReplyDelete
  55. WHEN DID F3 INDIA WILL MOVE LITTLE FASTER..WAITING FROM SO LONGGG TIME FOR CUT OFF DATE

    ReplyDelete

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