Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Updated Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS).

Please see the important details below as well as notes from another meeting:

EB2 India: This category advanced less than expected in September visa bulletin due to higher demand in EB5, EB1 and EB2 category. Hence the amount of spillovers to EB2 India was less. In addition, demand in EB2 India category has also increased due to (1) new filings and (2)  upgrades from EB3 India to EB2 India category.

DOS expects this category to retrogress as early as November 2014. However DOS did not give any predictions/estimates on how far this category could retrogress.

EB3 Philippines: The cut off date for this category is now same as EB3 ROW. This is due to (1) reduced demand in EB1 Philippines and EB2 Philippines (2) low demand from EB3 Philippines. EB3 Philippines will continue to have same cutoff date as EB3 ROW for next few months. After that, the dates may change depending on demand in EB1, EB2 and EB3 Philippines category.

EB5 China: This category became unavailable starting from August 23, 2014 and will remain unavailable till Sept 30, 2014. This means EB5 China is unavailable for fiscal year 2014. EB5 China will be available starting from October 1, 2014 (start of fiscal year 2015).

An important note for EB5 China applicants is that if they have set up interview overseas (consulate processing), visas will continue to be available. Visas will not be available for EB5 China applicants who has not yet set up an interview. However USCIS/NVC will continue to process EB5 China applications.

In addition, DOS is also expecting another retrogression in EB5 China for FY 2015. The estimated date for this is around June 2015. Since EB5 China can use up visas from other EB5 countries, the chance of EB5 China category retrogressing for FY 2015 is currently very low.

2014 Diversity Visa: The demand for diversity visa was much higher than anticipated. In case you are unaware, DOS issues more winners for DV lottery than actual visas available to make sure that visas do not go unused. Due to this high demand, DOS could adjust the levels for 2015 diversity visa lottery. This could result in lesser number of people selected.

To know more about diversity visa, please see right side of this page (under the Popular News sections)

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Earlier, we have seen that USCIS sometimes reported low numbers, even when demand was higher. This resulted in significant retrogression when the real demand was calculated by DOS.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

71 comments:

  1. 08/20/2014: Impact of Potential OBAMA EB Fix Excluding Dependent Family Members from EB IV Numberical Limit

    AILA liaison reportedly asked Mr. Oppenheim of DOS the potential impact of such reform on immigration visa cut-off dates and his answer was that it would accelerate cut-offs but cut-offs would still exist in the family-based peference immigrant visa categories, while such fix would result in all of EB visa categories immediately becoming current and continuously remaining current for the foreseeable future. But within a year of two, filing and approval of new petitions could require cut-off dates for some preferences for some countries. Interesting.................................................

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  2. any updates for EB3 ROW?

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  3. What about F2A ?

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  4. I guess EB2 India dates will not move any further in the Oct 2014 Visa Bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If it follows the last year trend, then it will remain the same :( .. I just missed by 2 weeks ..

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    2. I hate this last time when it became current i was struck in INDIA due to personal reasons back in 2011 Dec now again it came till may 1 2009 i am missing by 13 days. I hate this process. I been living and working in USA for past 10 Years. This sucks man...

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  5. What about f2a? What did he have to say for this category please?

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  6. F2A still in suspense, No one is able to predict now.., big movement in F2A is expected

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  7. 08/27/2014: White House considers proposals to sharply increase legal immigration
    The White House is considering proposals from business and immigrant rights groups that are pressing President Obama to provide hundreds of thousands of green cards for high-tech workers and the relatives of U.S. citizens and permanent residents.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where have u read this please and when would this come into action?

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  8. Hi, had my PD now in August,( in F3) wondering if anyone can answer how long it approximately will take before we get our number ?? We have submitted all the papers that we should and the fees are paid. We know from the American Embassy here in our country, in Europe that they will call us for interjuv about a month after receiving the "go-ahead" But how long is the wait for our number so that we can be called to the embassy here ??best regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. your f3 pd is august..mine is september..i just wana know tht when u recieve your coa letter for paying fees and submitting of documents

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  9. please Mr. Charles remove backlog EB3 India.

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  10. Can anyone give update about F2A?? Plz

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    Replies
    1. F2A expected to move forward, we cannot predict until the visa bulletin is out.. hope for some thing good...

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    2. F2A estimated cuts of date will be 8th sep 2013 again.If not 7,8 months movement is expected..

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  11. Can you share any prediction about EB2 India in October 2014 bulletin? Any slight advancement possible or is it going to remain the same ...

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  12. eb3 my pd is current this august,,but no NVC INVOICEcoming..until when do i wait?

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  13. Replies
    1. F2A expected to move forward, we cannot predict until the visa bulletin is out.. hope for some thing good...

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  14. F2a will forward by 1 year still waiting my pd march 2014 charles oppenheim pls make it current

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    Replies
    1. My pd feb 2014. Plz make it current

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  15. Why only update of EB? Why not F2A? Can anybody predict F2A in October 2014?

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  16. I wish I could change my PR status to other Non Immigrant Status at least I can stay with my spouse, dont understand why they are dividing husband and wife.., no other country had this kind of procedure....

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    Replies
    1. Well said....., this procedure is killing.... they should make F2A current forever

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  17. Will there be a big jump on EB3 Philippines again? Considering that there is low demand on EB1, 2 and 3 Philippines??

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  18. Will there be a big jump on EB3 Philippines again? Considering that there is low demand on EB1, 2 and 3 Philippines??

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  19. White House suggests delay on immigration reform
    WE SHOULD WAIT AGAIN AND AGAIN
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-suggests-delay-on-immigration-reform/2014/08/29/1d2af986-2faf-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

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  20. My f2a PD is 27 -1-2014 any good news ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. did you get your case number yet?

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    2. If u mean NVC case number so no i didnot get any thing

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  21. My pd 3/19/2014 got case number

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  22. Well another month has passed, tomorrow will be september... This means one thing, another bulletin, another chance to be reunited :))

    Anyone know what date the bulletin is due out? Everything crossed for F2A Family separation is killing us!! Good luck to u all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yeah this situation is really funny indeed
      I guess it should be released in September 10th

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    2. Hopefully sooner, even 9 more days is a long painful wait for us all.

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    3. I wish I could change my PR status to other Non Immigrant Status at least I can stay with my spouse, dont understand why they are dividing husband and wife.., no other country had this kind of procedure.

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  23. According to the sources, F2A to move forward more than a year or it may become Current

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    Replies
    1. What is the name of the source?

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    2. Oh OK Mr president

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  24. Mine pd is dec23 2013.... Still no reply frm them...... I just got my receipt number thats all

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  25. My pd 19/3/2014 I got nvc case number hope it moves forward by 8 or 9 months

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are u sure that u get nvc case number ? Or uscis one

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    2. Ya I got nvc case number starting from BMB2014***********

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    3. How is that ? My pd is 27-1-2014 and did not get any thing from nvc . All what i get is that my case moved to Nvc ???

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    4. Try calling. My PD is 01-04-2014 and I also have the NVC case number, we got an email with that Info

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  26. For sure that F2A visa in Fiscal year 2015 will be available for who has Priority day before November 1st 2013.

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  27. In october visa bulletin?

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  28. F2a news?? Any prediction?? Share the source if any !!!! My pd is june 6th 2013..!! Hoping for the best in new fiscal year. .!!

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    Replies
    1. Your PD will be current in this FY 2015, not sure when but I think around Jan - March 2015

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  29. My PD is 02Dec2013, can sombody tell me whay expect for next coming visa bolletin in october 2014? NVC hasn´t startin my process in my case? help me please when I can to be allow to make the fee payments?

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    Replies
    1. Basic on your PD, I think you your PD will be current in between Oct - Dec 2015

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  30. Oct 2014 Visa Bulletin my guess for F2A is 2-3 months which means cut-off day will be March 1st 2013.
    If someone has PD after Nov 1st 2013, you have to wait till next fiscal year 2016 to become current. The information I have read in statistic of all F2A applications that applied for I-130 that received by USCIS is over 280,000 applications by Nov 1st 2013.

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    Replies
    1. About when will october 7th 2013 PD become current do u think? Hoping by early 2015 I think...

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    2. Correct! your PD will be current in 2015. I guess around June - August 2015.

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  31. October Visa Bulletin will be release soon, around Monday or Tuesday in next week, I guess F2A will move forward 1-2 months which means Cut-off day will be Feb 1st or March 1st 2013.

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  32. Any one can help me to know my nvc case number .. My case has been at nvs 8 monthe ago

    ReplyDelete
  33. John huynh don't any shit information ur attitude is like as if u r visa controller why don't u start a visa agency and give ur bull shit information

    ReplyDelete
  34. John huynh don't any shit information ur attitude is like as if u r visa controller why don't u start a visa agency and give ur bull shit information

    ReplyDelete
  35. LOL! Think the guy is tryna b helpful but u r right.... Truth is, nobody knows. Last month they were sayin late fall and it went all the way to January. So u just really never know!! Everythin crossed for the bulletin, plz clear all 2013!!

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  36. Dissapointed with the bulletin :( slow movement. Another month in waiting now wondering when our day will come... Suppose some forward movement better than none though

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  37. Slowly moving will be continuous in the next few months.

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  38. I hate usa visa bulletin. my pd eb3 india may 2006. it is enough too much. other countries n catergeries r taking big jump. only eb3 india is only one week. bulshit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. unjustied with eb3 india. please remove backlog. take a big jump in eb3 india.

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  39. Can anyone tell me when i should expect to hear anything if our PD is June, 2014 for 2A category??

    ReplyDelete
  40. Plz inform ..Regarding my PD for Dec.2013 for F2A (India) Category??

    When can we expect this??

    ReplyDelete

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