Monday, March 30, 2015

Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:

EB2 India: As mentioned in the earlier blog post, DOS has started moving dates forward in EB2 India starting from February 2015 Visa Bulletin. The expected forward movement is 4-6 months for the next several months.

Since the dates are moving slowly, most of the visas would be allocated to EB3 India who are upgrading to EB2 India; since very few original EB2 India are remaining at this date. If the porting continues to increase, DOS is expecting dates to move forward by maximum Summer 2009 for FY 2015. This is similar to dates reached by EB2 India for FY 2014.

By law, EB2 India is limited to quota of around 2,802 visas per year + any spillovers from other EB/FB categories. Estimating demand so early can be tricky, especially since demand continues to rise in EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB5 categories. Hence they are slowly moving dates forward instead of a big jump as they did in previous years.

EB3 India: EB3 India is expected to move forward by up to 2 weeks per month. The good news is that since many applicants are porting from EB3 India to EB2 India, the demand in EB3 India will decrease allowing it to move forward faster later.

EB2/EB3 China: Due to significant retrogression in April 2015 visa bulletin for EB3 China and forward movement in EB2 China, EB2 China is finally ahead of EB3 China.

If demand does not increase significantly, EB2 China may continue to move forward at faster rate.  EB3 China may move forward at a slower rate, depending on demand (from EB3 China and people who have earlier ported from EB2 China to EB3 China).

EB5 China: Demand from EB5 China applicants continue to increase significantly. This could result in retrogression in this category either in May 2015 or June 2015 visa bulletin.

The good news is that law allows spillovers across same categories. This means EB5 China can get visas from other EB5 countries. However this means spillovers to other EB categories (EB2, EB3) will decrease significantly.

There is also possibility of EB5 category using up all its available quota in the FY 2015.

All Categories: Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories.

Tip: You can follow us at Facebook or Twitter to get notified about new blog posts. You can also sign up for automatic email notification for latest visa bulletin in the Locate Hidden Visa Bulletin tool page.

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

Also See:

Recommended Reading:

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130 comments:

  1. "Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories."


    Is this a good news or bad news for family based applicants?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It wont effect FB I suspect

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  2. F2A Every year they will take a big jump, in May or April F2A will take a big jump....

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  3. F2A will move till Feb 2014 in May or April its confirm, all the applicants with Priority date till Jan 2014 are close to finish their NVC process...

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  4. All the F2A applicants please about your NVC process, any one who had received Interview letter update on this blog, it will help others alot

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My pd is 31st jan 2014 and i recieved my nvc letter on feb 20th 2015 and i am about to finish my nvc processing in few days

      Delete
    2. One of my friend he is also in f2a category and his pd is feb 2014 i dont know about the date tho. But he also recieved his nvc letter last week

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    3. Did you submit iv package ?

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    4. My pd is 28 Jan 2014 and my petition is still pending with uscis. Now after 1 year they transferred my case from Vermont to California.

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    5. My Pd date is last week of Feb 2014. I already got the NVC case number when i got the approval from NVC. So when will i get my welcome letter

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    6. Mrugesh Patel, you should call NVC. You should be getting your welcome letter right about now.

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    7. Thank you Alejandra
      but fortunately today i got my welcome .i have my PD 18th Feb 2014

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  5. All F2B , pls update us if any one Has received Interview letter from USCIS!
    Thanks

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  6. To all F2B applicants, pls inform us about Your NVC proccess !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My PD is April 2008 F2B paid fees from December 2014 ,NVC has sent a letter stating that they have received all necessary documents to complete file and a week after NVC sent me a letter stating that the AOS is not enough but still dont get an interview date yet.

      Delete
  7. How is F1 ?
    US Citizen is waiting for children 10 years!

    ReplyDelete
  8. My pd 12 November 2013. Civil document s submit but nvc didn't want visa fee.pls answer same or near my pd.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. try to make the petitioner to be your agent ,
      don't hire a third party to be your agent cause they will need 60 days to review that , so call NVC and tell them i want to make the petitioner to be the agent .

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. This guy with PD Oct 28th 2013 that already got his case completed on March 30th 2015.
    This is a good news, will be a big jump on June VB.
    Here is his timeline http://www.visajourn...cfl=0&id=171709

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what about May? just one month?

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    2. your link doesn't work. please shorten it with this service:
      http://goo.gl/

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    3. Maybe may visa bulletin will move 4 to 6 week let's see in April

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    4. The link is not working, you just check the link once it had not pasted correctly

      Delete
  10. Hi Amazon. First of all I want to tell you thank you very much for sharing very important information for all applicants. Therefore, I have a question. My PD (F2A) is January 06, 2014 and I already am in USA. What do you think ?? when will my application become CURRENT??? thank you very much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. My lawyer said I do not need to pay any payment untill PD becomes current becuase I am already United States and once it becomes current I need to submit 485. (I already received welcome letter)

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    2. what is your PD?

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    3. january 06, 2014

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  11. When we submitted the sponcer to NVC. they email about the sponcer or not. Or directely submitted to Nvc

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No need wait for the email, you jut go ahead and pay the fee and submit all the documents, NVC will not send you email for every activity.....

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  12. Directly submit u don't have to wait for email if you pay iv fees than send all document

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  13. hi my case transferred from VSC to CSC. how long time to take my case get approval.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. one to two months

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    2. what is your PD? why does no body mention the PD!

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    3. my pd march 27 2014 f2a

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    4. Mine is almost the same. I think we'll get it in a month.

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  14. please help! Why I dont have access to file DS 260?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. whats your PD and visa category?

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  15. Anyone with priority date in February got welcome letter from NVC?

    ReplyDelete
  16. My f2a pd 12 nov2013.I paid aos fees and submitted all civil documents march 12 2013.nvc confirmed also that they have received my documents but I couldn't pay visa fee .pls help me and update near or same pd.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ur service center????

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  17. You have call them after they review your ds261 nd send email for iv fees

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hi, my PD is June 9, 2014 f2a India. When will I get a welcome letter? Any response will be greatly appreciated. Thankyou.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wait for big movement onces January 2014 will get interview after maybe

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    2. Hardik Patel, You don't know shit. Stop posting junk information which comes through your amateur brain.

      Delete
  19. unjusice with EB3 India. Please Mr. Charles remove the backlog EB3 India. My PD is June 2006. Last 9 years, I'm waiting. Please remove backlog EB3 India.

    ReplyDelete
  20. F2A priority date Sep 2013 to Jan 2014 please update any one who had completed their case at NVC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. please update if any one had received Interview Letter for Sep 2013 to Jan 2014

      Delete
  21. What happen with you guys please update about your case help other people who had waiting for long time give them hope that they will heard good news soon. Keeping update on blog.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why u used my word. Why did you copy

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  22. Any F2B applicants on this blog exisist ?!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am F2B awaiting IL PD April 2008.

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    2. What ? How come you haven't got IL yet ! Your PD was current long time ago !!!! F2A accplicants got IL way too earlier ! Even 5 months before they pd will get current !!!!!

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    3. No ! They got welcome letter ! How long did it take to get your welcome letter before your PD got Current ?

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    4. I paid fees and submit documents in December 2014 and my PD would have become current in January 2015. But still dont get IL as yet.

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    5. Thanks for your update ! In my knowledge base on my friend's case experience !most probably you will get IL in may , hopefully ! Pls let us know !

      Delete
  23. My pd is dec 17th i had already completed my process and they send me mail 14 days ago that my documents are received N it will take 60 days to review because there are so many applicants and now i am just waiting for my interview letter. Hope i get soon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what is your scan day??

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    2. Are u paid iv fees rick thapa?

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  24. My wife filed an I-130 petition for me under F2A Category. Me and my wife, both are in USA and my I-130 is still pending. My PD is Jan 17, 2014.

    My question is, do my wife has to inform USCIS before I-130 get's approve that I will be doing AOS and not going for consular process? or do I have to wait till I-130 get approve and case get transfer to NVC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have to wait until your I-130 gets approved. Once approved, USCIS will send you a notice stating, "Would you like to change status in US? or You want your case to be transferred to NVC. You have to reply within 30 days that you want to adjust status in US. You can adjust your status once your priority ate becomes current.
      I have a same situation. My Priority date is 24 Feb 2014. My case has been recently transferred from Vermont to California service center. Fingers crossed.

      Delete
  25. Good news for F2A guys
    Nvc start sending welcome letter who pd February nd March 2014.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. when I should expect my Interview Letter if I get my Welcome Letter (with a PD of March)

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    2. They transfered case from vsc to csc so it's also good news. After u finished further processing it's take less than 60days or less. May be vb will be big jump in June or july please keep hope bczz I knew how u feel without families or husband/wife .

      Delete
  26. I recieved welcome letter from NVC to pay fess today... It is gonna be big jump in f2a in coming months...

    Pd - 14 feb 2014
    Service center - CSC

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hlo all i need some info regarding paper work...my question is do i need to put my wife's name in my passport ..am in india..congrts to those got visas and IL

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hlo all i need some info regarding paper work...my question is do i need to put my wife's name in my passport ..am in india..congrts to those got visas and IL

    ReplyDelete
  29. It is good if you put your wife name bczz if IL officers will see your passport nd after it is strong proof of real mrg. Take a time nd put your wife name

    ReplyDelete
  30. I came to know that F2A priority date Feb 2014 to March 2014 had received Welcome letter from NVC to pay the fee and submit the required documents, that's the good news for all the applicants, May or June 2015 Visa bulletin will be Jan 2014, it is sure big movement is expected in coming days....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, all the F2A applicants waiting for long time to join their families..., hope the time is coming........

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    2. F2A priority date Sep 2013 to Jan 2014 please update any one had completed the case at NVC

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  31. My pd 19 March I received welcome letter yesterday

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Woowwww, that's the good news to all the F2A applicants... Good Luck

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    2. Did your status change or her any email before getting the letter?

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  32. I HAD A QUESTION PLEASE HELP ME OUT

    Do I need to send AOS and IV package to NVC through email ( electronically) or via Mail ?

    ReplyDelete
  33. My pd March 6 2014 when I get welcome letter from nvc

    ReplyDelete
  34. Oh really thank you

    ReplyDelete
  35. I HAD A QUESTION PLEASE HELP ME OUT

    Do I need to send AOS and IV package to NVC through email ( electronically) or via Mail ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can do it my either way but via electronically is much faster and easier..

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    2. You can do it by either way but via electronically is much faster and easier..

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    3. ok fine..., thank u

      Delete
  36. retrogression for EB3 ROW???

    ReplyDelete
  37. Did any August 2013 filers receive lately IL?

    ReplyDelete
  38. Great news...Got email from NVC..My priority date is 10Feb2014 f2a..So excited.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol what do u mean by email? Interview? Fee? What?

      Delete
  39. Did anyone get welcome letter from nvc pd March 2014

    ReplyDelete
  40. Did anyone get welcome letter from nvc? PD Nov 2013 vermont service center....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did you got approved . If yes and your case in nvc nd did you got invoice number than try online login in

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    2. Not approved yet....

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  41. F2A priority date Sep 2013 to Jan 2014 any one had completed the case at NVC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All the F2A applicants please update about your NVC activities......

      Delete
  42. Pls give update if any one paid iv fee s.f2a pd November 20013.

    ReplyDelete
  43. What happened with your case . I didn't access iv fees . Please call nvc today. If busy line please radial as you can.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sojol i already paid iv fees.. Call nvc again n again

      Delete
  44. PD DEC 02 2013 i sent IV packet to NVC, bit still i can't pay IV fee and film DS 260. When I will be able to do it? Anyone in the same situation?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did you check online if not . Please check online . Or call nvc today. Of busy line please radial as you can

      Delete
    2. how to check online?

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  45. Go back to nvc.state.gov and click on choose an agent, enter your case number just like you want to pay for AOS fees, once you open it , it will show you that you have already paid for AOS, look for IV fees there below the AOS fees you paid to see if you can see $325 for IV fees and click on select payment and process your payment.

    ReplyDelete
  46. I paid aso fees and send civil documents 15 days ago but couldn't pay iv fees.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Did you send them iv package too . If yes, did you get from nvc that they received your package.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes.nvc received and took 60 days for review.

      Delete
    2. Did you send AOS document nd IV document package. If yes . Please call nvc Monday . If busy line please radial as you can. Bczz if you sent both packages than Iv fees open for you right a way. Or they will open when you make call .I saw who scan date March 3,2015 . They completed case already

      Delete
  48. after i send the civil documents how long will it take to get my interw date pd 01 oct 2013

    ReplyDelete
  49. Everyone!

    I sent IV packet march 17 2015, so I´m unable pay IV fee!, when I access to CEAC, tha select pay to IV is unable or locket maybe I should wait that they invoice it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Call them if busy line please radial as you can

      Delete
  50. Did you sent both packages . If not please send them as you can

    ReplyDelete
  51. Hello guys
    Some people can't access IV fees . Please call nvc on Monday nd tell them about your case. I am sure you guys able to pay IV fees. I saw vj blog people called nvc for IV fees they opened for them . So please call them as soon as early

    ReplyDelete
  52. Who know if the next VB will can get Dec 2013 PD´s or more, the prediction in this page is good, but we have to think more than there.

    ReplyDelete
  53. How did you know .. I knew some of case competed in April 1 who pd December but after 20 to 30days to get interview letter so

    ReplyDelete
  54. Hi my PD is 27 Feb 2014 ROW. Got only the case number so far on May 2014.
    I am concerned about invoice id number how do they send it via email or mail? When will I get it?
    best and good luck to all of us

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They will send through email

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    2. Most of the Feb 2014 applicants had got the email to start the NVC process, check your email or contact your attroney

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    3. Thank you guys for the quick reply, to whom will they send the email though to the petitioner or the beneficiary. Only the petitioner filled the g-1145 hence only her email is registered not mine (the beneficiary).

      Delete
    4. They will send to the registered email, if you don't receive, give a call to NVC on Monday and ask about the welcome letter

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    5. I got my case number nd invoice number in ask nvc email

      Delete
    6. What's your PD

      Delete
  55. I was able to access the payment portal for the first time today but it says not invoiced. I'm guessing that means I will be invoiced soon. Just wanted to give an update. PD. March 17, 2014.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can i ask which payment are u talking about? My PD is march 13 and I'm living in US

      Delete
    2. I am talking about the AOS and IV payment.

      Delete
  56. PD is on March 27, 2014
    I got an email from NVC yesterday which was welcoming letter to start processing my application. they said I need to fill out the applications and pay the fees to get the interview

    Center: California Service Center:
    •03/26/2014 I-130 Documents sent
    •03/282014 NOA1 - Priority date
    •04/01/2014 Email notification
    •04/21/2014 NOA2 approved

    Center: National Visa Center (NVC)
    •06/03/2014 Case number, and IIN
    •04/03/2015 Welcome letter received by email

    ReplyDelete
  57. Anyone whose priority date November 2013 and service center vermont got approval of i130????

    ReplyDelete
  58. our PD for ROW is june 11,2007. what would be our estimated date?

    ReplyDelete
  59. our PD for F4 ROW is june11,2007.how much time it might take to be issued finally?

    ReplyDelete
  60. How about for FB F3 PD Sept. 23,1993? What took so long to wait for this category? Been waiting for 2 decades now and petitioner is US Veterans. Kindly advised. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/discuss


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