Saturday, January 11, 2014

February 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For February 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here:

Please see below analysis of February 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1000-1200 every month.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillover in FY 2014.

EB2 China: As expected, EB2 China also moved forward by 4 weeks. It should continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month. It is still be behind EB3 China which is ahead by more than 3 years.

EB2 India: There was no change in EB2 India movement. As we had mentioned earlier, there was huge retrogression in EB2 India due to large amount of porting from EB3 India to EB2 India. We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: The biggest (expected) forward movement was in EB3 ROW, Mexico and China category. This category moved forward by 2 months. According to I-485 pending inventory, demand is very low at around 14,000. The annual quota for EB3 ROW is over 40,000. Hence dates have moved forward significantly in last few months. Last year, due to delay in moving dates forward, DOS had to assign unused EB3 ROW visas to EB3 India and EB3 Philippines.

EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 2 months. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for this fiscal year.

EB3 China Other workers Category also continues to move at same rate as EB3 China.

EB3 Mexico: Similarly EB3 Mexico also moved forward by 2 months.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India had retrogressed by 3 weeks in December 2013 VB. It did not move at all in the January and February VB. Since EB2 India dates have also retrogressed, it is no longer possible for EB3 India to port to EB2 India (for dates after 2004). Hence it is possible that dates for EB3 India would remain the same in the next VB.

Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).

EB3 Philippines: Another large movement (for this category) was in EB Philippines where dates moved forward by 8 weeks. This category is likely to continue to move forward.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

Following categories did not move forward: F3 Mexico and all F2A categories.

F1 Philippines: This category has slowed down a lot from 4-6 months movement every month. It is currently moving at monthly average of 3 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was no further movement in this category. DOS is holding the dates steady to help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications or consular processing cases. Once enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back and then continue to move forward slowly. Please see article for more details for FB category.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F2B Philippines moved forward by 5 weeks.

F2B Mexico: F2B Mexico retrogressed by 11 months. DOS stated that further retrogression is possible.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. Philippines moved forward by only 1 week.

Most other FB categories moved between 1 and 5 weeks.

If you have not done it yet, remember to add your case data to GC tracker: tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

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  1. Amazon, EB3 ROW, Mexico and China category moved by two months, not three.

    What's your prediction for March Bulletin for EB3 ROW?


    1. Thanks anonymous. I have updated it from 3 months to 2 months. I had too many dates movements calculated. Maybe I should take a break :)

  2. I don't think there's any point to do a prediction until the pending inventory is out

    1. You might probably know the pending inventory is typically 50 days old. By the time they publish it and next VB comes along, the gap could be 90 days. Hence inventory is used as one of the data source.

  3. To all who is asking for prediction. You ask for it. You get. And if it is off by a few months - you get all upset. Do not be ungrateful. Here's the website that is very helpful with tons of useful information. And yet you're just whining and keep coming back with all your negativity. You knew what you got yourself into, so have some respect for the people that are doing their best and give you at least some insight on the current immigration situation.

    1. Thank you anonymous. I am also confused why some people complain about every little thing and forget the big picture including helping everyone as a community.

  4. Wow, slow down buddy. I am just saying the predictions will be more accurate once we have the pending inventory, that's all. The pending inventory should be published this month.

    1. The comment wasn't addressed specifically to you. But rather to people that are looking to get the "exact" day when their PD will become current from the predictions on this website. And, yes, you are correct about the inventory.

    2. Many people are not aware that VB dates are only 1, 8, 15 and 22. Hence if demand is even little less, the date movement would be 7 days low (and not just 1 day low). We should have a petition to ask USCIS and DOS to publish more data quickly.

  5. When do you expect any movement forward for F2A? Which month? Maybe April?

  6. Please remove backlog from EB3 India. My PD july 2006. I'm waiting years and years. Please improve your immigration system.

    1. You should write to Congress and ask them to change the limits.

  7. This is so strange- why the USCIS isnt publishing the inventory data in Jan 2014. Jan is almost over.

  8. Hi Amazon appreciate your hard work but I'm just wondering which prediction is more accurate the calculator or the published article for the monthly predictions

    1. The monthly estimates are more accurate than the calculator. The calculator is for estimates for longer PD.


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