Monday, April 14, 2014

May 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For May 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here:

Please see below analysis of May 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1000-1200 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 400 per month. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillover in FY 2014.

EB2 China: EB2 China also moved forward by 5 weeks. It should continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month. It is still be behind EB3 China which is ahead by more than 3 years.

EB2 India: There was no change in EB2 India movement. As we had mentioned earlier, there was huge retrogression in EB2 India due to large amount of porting from EB3 India to EB2 India. We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: As expected this category did not moved forward. Based on the latest I-485 pending inventory, they have received enough application to fill the quota for fiscal year 2014.  However dates is likely to move forward between July and September to use up spillovers from EB and FB category.

EB3 China: EB3 China also did not move forward. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for this fiscal year. If you are in EB2 China category, you may consider moving application from EB2 China to EB3 China, since EB3 China is more than 3 years ahead of EB2 China.

EB3 China Other workers Category also continues to move at same rate as EB3 China.

EB3 Mexico: Similarly EB3 Mexico also did not move forward.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category finally moved forward by 2 weeks. Due to dates in EB2 India retrogressed to 15 November 2004, the volume of applicants upgrading to EB2 India has decreased significantly. Hence the demand in EB3 India is higher than previous months (when EB2 India moved forward). This has resulted in dates staying the same in EB2 India and EB3 India categories.

Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).

EB3 Philippines: The biggest jump was in EB3 Philippines. This category moved forward by 4.5 months   This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

Following categories did not move forward: All F2A categories.

F1 Category: F1 Philippines moved forward by 12 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 2 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was no further movement in F2A. DOS is holding the dates steady to help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications or consular processing cases.

The demand in Mexico is much higher than other countries. Hence DOS retrogressed dates by around 11 months in earlier visa bulletin.  Please see article for more details for FB category.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 13 weeks. Both F2B Mexico and Philippines categories moved forward by 2 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 6 weeks. Philippines moved forward by only 1 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 1 week.,

If you have not done it yet, remember to add your case data to GC tracker: tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

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  1. Hi amazon.can you pls. Update your gc calculator base on the may 2014 data? We are all waiting for it.Thank you and more power!

    1. Hi Anonymous, it has been updated with latest data.

  2. same concern here amazon! pls update...thank you

  3. same here amazon waiting for the update of gc calculator. my pd is may 2013 eb phils. tnx

  4. What is your guess for next F2A movement? Maybe June?

    1. Hi Amazon,

      Do you still think the retrogress will happen in July? Any chance it will be delayed to August or Sept? Thanks!

  5. Maybe you wait forever!

  6. Hi Amazon, I am a retired Indian military person & in Family based immigration one has to submit Police Clearence Cert from all locations where he resided more than six months after attaining the age of 16 yrs.
    Sir, I want to know what about retired INDIAN MILITARY PERSON who served at various places during his entire service period, should he submit PCC from all those locations or there is any other provision for him ? Secondly what about his spouse who also accompanied him to the various locations as far as PCC is concerned ?
    Hoping for quick reply & thanking in anticipation.

  7. Hi amazon, my pd is nov 1 2007 if i apply fir AOS this month of may what wiil happen to my paper? Ty..

  8. Amazon, where can I find your EB3 ROW June 2014 Prediction ? Please let me know.

  9. Official Predictions on Priority Date Movement for FY14 by Charles Oppenheim

    ( )

  10. EB-2 India. This is the major headline from Mr. Oppenheim’s comments – EB-2 India is likely to move forward to January 1, 2008 during the August or (more likely) September Visa Bulletin. This movement will aim to utilize all of the available visa numbers for the fiscal year that may be unused by other categories (possibly 5,000 or more, but fewer compared to prior years).

  11. June bulletin is out. Not good news for ROW...


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