Thursday, June 12, 2014

July 2014 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For July 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here:

Please see below analysis of July 2014 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1000-1200 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. This is good news for EB2 India which received a very high spillover.

EB2 China: EB2 China also moved forward by 5 weeks. It should continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month. It is finally ahead of EB3 China which is now behind by around 2 years.

EB2 India: The biggest jump was in EB2 India category which moved forward by around four years.  We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. Based on those estimates, EB2 India should continue to move forward till around February 2009, unless applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases dramatically (which is possible, since they have been waiting in EB3 India category for more than a decade)

If the porting rate from EB3 India increases at very high rate, DOS may decide to retrogress EB2 India category in the September 2014 visa bulletin, so that allotted visas do no exceed available quota. Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: As expected, EB3 ROW did not move forward in this visa bulletin, after retrogressing by 1.5 years in the last visa bulletin. Due to previous low demand, this category had moved forward by more than few years. This resulted in them receiving enough applications to meet the quota for 2014. There is a small possibility of dates moving forward in September 2014 visa bulletin.

EB3 China: EB3 China also did not move forward after it had retrogressed by 6 years.  There is also a small possibility of dates moving forward in September 2014 visa bulletin.

EB3 China Other workers category also did not move forward.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also did not move forward, after retrogressing by 1.5 years.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category also moved forward by 2 weeks. Since dates in EB2 India jumped by around 4 years, the volume of applicants upgrading from EB3 India to EB2 India should increase significantly, which could result in faster forward movement in EB3 India. The only problem is that USCIS does not have a system to identify them and hence they would be counted twice.

EB3 Philippines: The second biggest forward movement in EB category was in EB3 Philippines. This category moved forward by 1 year. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 7 months. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 1 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 6 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was no movement in any F2A category, after significant (around 16 months)  retrogression in previous visa bulletin. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 15 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 4 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. Philippines moved forward by only 2 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 2 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India moved forward by 1 weeks. Philippines moved forward by 6 week. Mexico category only moved forward by 1 week.

If you have not done it yet, remember to add your case data to GC tracker: tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

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  1. Hello! my pd is 4-28-2010 EB3 Phils.. is there a possibility to be current this yr? hoping for the best.

  2. Hi amazon, i file my i 485 june 4 2014. Why i havent heard from the uscis? How long to process the GC? Im eb3 philippines. Ty

  3. Hola alguien que sepa hasta cuando se movera f2a para mexico, gracias

    1. Saludos! Mi abogado de inmigración dice que espera que en octubre se mueva mucho hacia adelante, pues es cuando inicia el siguiente año fiscal. Dios les bendiga!

  4. Hello Amazon, do you think what happened to eb3row, eb3mexico and eb3china will happen to eb3phil? What I mean is that they moved pds aggressively and when they see high demand then they will move back pds again? If this will happen, could it happen in a few months?

    1. I do not want to sound like an expert here. But I don't want to think that it will happen to EB3 Phils because if you have seen the last demand data that was published. EB3 Philippines, does not have that much numbers as compared to other countries. Also EB2 Phils remains current until now so not much porting really. As compared to China, which suffered the most in terms of retrogression, because of the massive porting that happened when dates moved aggressively last in the past VB. so I am GUESSING that EB3 Phils will continue to move forward because it stalled for the past years...

    2. Thank you for you insight but I think the demand data only shows those I-485 filings before the july 2007 fiasco and they don't have idea yet of numbers who will be filing after that, probably they are still on their way of filing at this time since it's just two months had just past since this pd (july 2007) became current. They might just be creating a pipeline to have sufficient demands for the last quater of the fiscal year so that available visas won't be wasted and after they will realize that demand is higher than supply, they have to retrogress pds. But I'm still hoping eb3phil won't retrogress in the coming months.

  5. Amazon, after Sep bulletin, is EB2 India will be move forward or retrogress back, if retrogress back, how long it will go back.

  6. Hi amazon,
    If eb3 india porting eb2 india. Why eb3 isn't take the big jump. why eb3 india isn't move in years. Mr. Charles please think about eb3 india.

    1. 1. Not everyone from eb3i ports to eb2i. Needs company approvals.
      2. Eb3i got a shit ton of applicants every year. U guys r already lucky that every year u have the eb SO.
      3. Not gonna have a jump at all until CIR bill passes which is never.

  7. Hello, My prority date is Jan 7, 2009 and currently EB2 india is at Sep 2008, can you please advise when will my date hit? It could be likely in Aug 2014 or Sept 2014 bulletin I can expect it would touch Jan 2009?

    Please advise.

  8. Hi amazon, how long will i be able receive notice from the visa center since my pd is already covered? My pd is march 2008 eb3 phil. Thank you.

  9. Hi. I had previously applied perm with employer A back in 2007 but it got rejected due to paperwork issue. That same employer has applied my perm and 140 again in 2012 for the same position and category (EB2). Is there anyway I can use the 2007 submission date as my priority date for my 485? Can I port a date from rejected application?

  10. Anyone on this blog EB3 to EB2 India porters that has filed I-485 last year or prior to that received GC approvals as this category moved forward to 1 Sept 2008? Seems like Strait EB2 India candidates are getting approved but no porters so far. Please reply.


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