Please see below analysis of July 2014 Visa Bulletin:
EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1000-1200 every month (per the latest pending inventory).
EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. This is good news for EB2 India which received a very high spillover.
EB2 China: EB2 China also moved forward by 5 weeks. It should continue to move forward around 3 to 5 weeks per month. It is finally ahead of EB3 China which is now behind by around 2 years.
EB2 India: The biggest jump was in EB2 India category which moved forward by around four years. We have added a blog post exclusive to EB2 India movement in fiscal year 2014. Based on those estimates, EB2 India should continue to move forward till around February 2009, unless applicants porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases dramatically (which is possible, since they have been waiting in EB3 India category for more than a decade)
If the porting rate from EB3 India increases at very high rate, DOS may decide to retrogress EB2 India category in the September 2014 visa bulletin, so that allotted visas do no exceed available quota. Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.
EB3 ROW: As expected, EB3 ROW did not move forward in this visa bulletin, after retrogressing by 1.5 years in the last visa bulletin. Due to previous low demand, this category had moved forward by more than few years. This resulted in them receiving enough applications to meet the quota for 2014. There is a small possibility of dates moving forward in September 2014 visa bulletin.
EB3 China: EB3 China also did not move forward after it had retrogressed by 6 years. There is also a small possibility of dates moving forward in September 2014 visa bulletin.
EB3 China Other workers category also did not move forward.
EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also did not move forward, after retrogressing by 1.5 years.
Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.
EB3 India: EB3 India category also moved forward by 2 weeks. Since dates in EB2 India jumped by around 4 years, the volume of applicants upgrading from EB3 India to EB2 India should increase significantly, which could result in faster forward movement in EB3 India. The only problem is that USCIS does not have a system to identify them and hence they would be counted twice.
EB3 Philippines: The second biggest forward movement in EB category was in EB3 Philippines. This category moved forward by 1 year. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.
Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.
EB4: This category continues to remain current.
EB5: This category continues to remain current.
Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.
F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 7 months. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 1 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 6 weeks.
F2A Category: As expected, there was no movement in any F2A category, after significant (around 16 months) retrogression in previous visa bulletin. Please see article for more details for FB categories.
F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 15 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 4 weeks.
F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. Philippines moved forward by only 2 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 2 week.
F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India moved forward by 1 weeks. Philippines moved forward by 6 week. Mexico category only moved forward by 1 week.
If you have not done it yet, remember to add your case data to GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/
If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.
Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".
Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.
- June 2014 Demand Data: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/05/june-2014-demand-data.html
- May 2014 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/04/may-2014-visa-bulletin.html
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