Charles Oppenheim met with several lawyers from American Immigration
Lawyers Association (AILA) on October 23, 2013. In this meeting he gave his prediction for visa bulletin movement for fiscal year 2014.
Charles Oppenheim explained that the demand for visa numbers is greater because of multiple
dependents being added (many primary
beneficiaries have married and have children). For example,
approximately 45% of the visa numbers are used by the primary
beneficiaries with the remaining 55% taken up by derivative
beneficiaries (spouses and children).
He also explained that the number of EB3 to EB2 porting cases is very
significant and because the mechanics of the EB3 to EB2 porting system
does not allow advance notification to the Department of State’s Visa
Office. This causes a significant number of EB3 to EB2 porting cases
to appear without advance warning to the Visa Office and, as a
result, the Visa Office has to hold cutoff dates back to accommodate
such porting case.
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between
October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were around 820 Indian nationals who ported from EB3 to EB2. In addition to EB3 to EB2
porting cases for Indian nationals, who are the majority of such cases,
he sees an increasing number of EB3 to EB2 porting cases from ROW category.
Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB1 and EB5 categories are
relatively popular this year and expects more numbers to be used in
these categories, compared to the past years. He cited EB5 China
category where the demand has been growing steadily (approximately 15%
over the year before) and that a cutoff date for EB5 China is possible
later this fiscal year (possibly around June 2014).
This high demand
also means that there will be less spillovers to other categories such as EB2 India and China which would
further contribute to the slow forward movement in these categories.
Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to
advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year
(October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then,
as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category,
adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand
is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based
EB1: This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB2 ROW: This category is expected to remain
current throughout the fiscal year; however, depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end
of the fiscal year.
EB2 China: This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.
EB2 India: EB2
India is expected to retrogress significantly by few years and remain at that date until the summer of 2014.
The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that
there is simply too much demand in
this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings
until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending case.
EB3 ROW, Mexico and China: This category is expected to move forward significantly over the next one or two months to stimulate demand for the next several months.
