Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Predictions: November 2013 Visa Bulletin

For September 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/08/visa-bulletin-september-2013.html

For October 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/visa-bulletin-october-2013.html

For November 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/visa-bulletin-november-2013.html

Please see below November 2013 Visa Bulletin Predictions (for both Family Based and Employment Based):

Quick Summary:
  • EB1, EB4, EB 5: Current
  • EB2 Rest Of World: Current
    EB2 China: 6 weeks (still behind EB3 China)
    EB2 India: It could either stay at 15JUN08 (to generate porting demand and apply future estimated spillovers) or retrogress to around 08APR05 (date based on July demand data). Please see article
  • EB3 (ROW, China, Mexico): 0 day. There is 40% chance of retrogression. Please see article.
    EB3 India: 0-2 weeks. There is 10% chance of retrogression.
    EB3 Philippines: 2 weeks.
  • FB categories: 1 week to 5 weeks.  Please see article.
  • F2A: 0 day. Further retrogression possible.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
F1 21OCT06 21OCT06 21OCT06 01OCT93 01JUL01
F2A 08SEP13 08SEP13 08SEP13 01SEP13 08SEP13
F2B 15MAR06 15MAR06 15MAR06 01APR94 01MAR03
F3 01FEB03 01FEB03 01FEB03 01JUN93 08JAN93
F4 15AUG01 15AUG01 15AUG01 22OCT96 22APR90

Employment Based: 

Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 01NOV08 08APR05-
15JUN08
C C
3rd 01JUL10 01JUL10 01OCT03 01JUL10 01JAN07
Other Workers 01JUL10 22NOV04 01OCT03 01JUL10 01JAN07
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th Targeted Employment Areas/Regional Centers and Pilot Programs C C C C C

F2A Category: USCIS/DOS is holding the dates steady around September 2013. Once enough demand (application) have been generated, it will retrogress the dates. They havent yet released data on latest demand.

If you have not done it yet, please add your case to the GC tracker. Every case would be helpful.  http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker/


We will update this table as we get more numbers to crunch. If you are interested, the numbers above are based on following data:

Similar to EB3 category movement, we have added a blog post for EB2 category forward movement between August and October 2013. Please click here for FB category.

Next Steps: If priority date is current and

1. If applicant is inside US, they will have to file I-485: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

2. If applicant is outside US, it will be sent to NVC: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/nvc-consular-processing-steps.html 

Recommended Reading:


More Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links -->

65 comments:

  1. Thanks Amazon. Is there any chance that F2A will go back to 2012 (assuming there is lot of demand)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Sept 2013 date could either mean (1) demand is low or (2) USCIS/DOS is creating pipeline of cases.

      Option 1 is not likely; else they would not retrogress dates by few weeks.

      Option 2 is most likely - which means once they have sufficient demand they would move dates back (similar to EB2 India).

      My guess would be between Nov 2012 and Feb 2013. We will have to wait for more data from USCIS.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Amazon. Well, as long as they move to late 2012 2012 or early 2013, it seems fine. Just hope it does not move back to 2011 or mid-2012. My PD is Aug 2012.

      Delete
  2. Is it possible that July 2007 will be current within this calendar year? I checked the pending I-845 total and it's within the 2,800 alloted under EB3 Philippines...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB3 Philippines might not move by 6 months in next 2 visa bulletins (due to high demand). The 2,800 quota is for entire year (Oct 2013 till Sept 2014).

      Delete
  3. When you expect to see any movement in EB3(ROW)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will have to wait for update data from USCIS. Hopefully they should release it soon.

      Delete
  4. hi amazon,i really dont get this,since oct is the start of the new fiscal year,then why still expect further retrogression?do you think it could still go bact to 2012?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are asking about F2A, please see the first comment above.

      Delete
  5. Dear Amazon, any idea of how much EB3 ROW could retrogress? could it retrogress to August 2009?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Carmen, we will have to wait for updated data from USCIS to calculate that. Hopefully it should be out in few weeks.

      Delete
    2. yes, without demand data is impossible. But I truly believe it won't retrogress since there is recession factor there

      Delete
  6. Spoke with the nvc & one of the workers told me that once interview is scheduled.retrogresion won't affect your case.want to know if it is the truth.?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would be valid as long as visa is available at that time.

      Delete
  7. Why only one week movement in the F4 category?

    I've been getting used to the 4-5 week movement for the past few months. my PD is Sept 2001 and for it to start moving so slowly when it's so close... that sucks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To avoid wasting visas, they increased the cutoff dates from July to Sept. The annual quota for all categories resets on Oct 1.

      Delete
  8. to JayR Duat : I don't get it where was 2,800 alloted visa came from? as well pending I-845 came from...not familiar.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 140,000 visas for employment based petitions. 28.6% goes to EB3. Per country limit is 7%. (140,000 x 28.6% is 40,040) 40,040 visas for EB3 but no one country can have more than 7% alloted per year regardless of the demand. 40,040 x 7% is 2,802 visas per year per country.

      Pending I-485 ----> http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2007-17-2013.pdf

      You can check how many cases are still waiting ...

      Delete
    2. thank you JayR Duat...

      Delete
    3. A quick note: If the category receives EB or FB spillovers, the annual quota would be more than 2800. Please see this:

      http://topimmigrationnews.blogspot.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html

      Delete
  9. Hi amazon! Is it possible that All Eb3 Phil with PD 2007 would become current next year ?more power!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will have to wait for latest I-485 pending inventory from USCIS to calculate the actual demand.

      Delete
  10. Under f2a category I got an interview letter for October 15 and my priority date is January 2012 do you think if there is no problem with my case ,I'll be approved on the spot or should I expect another long wait again after the interview ,,thanks amazon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They will generally give the decision after the interview.

      Delete

  11. AnonymousSeptember 13, 2013 at 10:09 AM
    hello everyone I want to inquire of u about the time period it will take for our immigration petition applied in July 2004 to come. I think so that the procedure should increase as there r few applicants after the 9/11 attack for at least 6 months
    F4 cateogry

    ReplyDelete
  12. Is there any possibility that EB2 priority date may move to Aug 2008 for india

    ReplyDelete
  13. Under f2a category I got an interview letter for October 15 and my priority date is January 2012 do you think if there is no problem with my case ,I'll be approved on the spot or should I expect another long wait again after the interview ,,thanks amazon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They will generally give the decision after the interview.

      Delete
  14. Hi Amazon,
    I filed for my wife under f2a category on june 12th 2013 under VSC. I got a letter today they told me your case has been transfered to Nebraska Service center on september 10th. they will contact you. How much time it will take them any idea. I will really appreciate it as i dont know how much NSC takes time to process I-130.Uscis website doesnt show i130 processing time for NSC. Please help me out Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you look at the GC forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum, they are approving cases in around 4-5 weeks.

      Delete
  15. Hi Amazon,
    Do you have an estimation on approximately how much EB3 ROW will retrogress in Nov-Feb 13?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude, read the comments above... "CarmenSeptember 11, 2013 at 3:30 PM" asked the same question

      Delete
  16. under f2a i got my choice of agent and filed also my affidavit of support,what document i will recieved next and how long it will take to received the next document?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hi one question, regarding to F1 to Mex. has moved 2 weeks instead of 1 as been moved on the last months, is maybe because of the phisical year, how you can predic 1 week on Nov, instead of 2 as last month

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi, It can move 1-2 weeks in November Visa Bulletin.

      Delete
  18. hello everyone I want to inquire of u about the time period it will take for our immigration petition applied in July 2004 to come. I think so that the procedure should increase as there r few applicants after the 9/11 attack for at least 6 months
    F4 cateogry

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  19. hi amazon,any updates on nov vb predictions?since we are nearing end of the month?tnx

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hello, My PD is 6/18/2008. Any predictions, on will this 3 day wait be over for me this year by Dec 2013 or next year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Different categories/countries would have different dates.

      Delete



    2. AnonymousSeptember 25, 2013 at 3:27 PM

      Hello, My PD is 6/18/2008 (EB2 India). Any predictions, on will this 3 day wait be over for me this year by Dec 2013 or next year

      Delete
    3. Hello, My PD is 6/17/2008 (EB2 India). Any predictions, on will this 1 day wait be over for me this year by Dec 2013 or next year

      Delete
  21. Hello I am a USC and my I-130 petition for child under 21 has just been approved, how long does it take to get the actual visa for my son to come to the US, im from Guatemala

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hello Amazon.. my EB2 I convert case is pending with an officer... what is the average estimate on approval duration ? Is it worth checking via Infopass or will it make things worse by inquiring ?

    Also, any insights on how far (if at all) will EB2 I retrogress in Nov, 2013?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can also call them or take infopass appointment to get status update.

      I will update EB2 India dates around next week.

      Delete
  23. Hi Amazon,
    I was dependent when my wife filed I-140 and I-485 concurrently in February. 2013 and currently, both applications(140 and 485) are in pending status . My EB3 has been current since September with approved I140. We sent an email to link our I485s to my approved I140 in September, 2013. However, we still have not heard anything back. I was wondering how long does it take USCIS to interlinked the case? If i apply for AP and EAD, will it be under my I-140 or my wife's pending I-140's 485. Any kind of help and suggestion will greatly appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can call USCIS and ask them to open a SR (service request) to interlink the files.

      Delete
  24. Hi Amazon,
    My PD is May 30,2007,EB3 Philippines. Is there any chance that this will become current on the first quarter of 2014?
    Thank you so much!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  25. Some websites are showing Nov 2013 EB2 India to move to Aug 2008. Is this likely? Would really appreciate if I can get an input ASAP because we have travel plans scheduled and about 4k USD at stake... :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014-part2.html?showComment=1380383163635#c1764454400710234111

      Delete
  26. i have my green card filed in september 2004 under F3 category....when do u expect it to get current??and it seems that i ll age out when it gets current....plz suggest me as to what can i do for it??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  27. Hi, my daughter date is July 2007 .Her I- 130 was aproved in 2008. Do I have to file I-485 now? . She lives in Peru is F1

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hi amazon, thanks for the info, I am under the eb3 india category. Any predictions if the pd will actually move? Or is it more likely to sit?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi amazon,my PD is September 2010 F1 category.When will the interview plz?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  30. Hi Amazon,My PD is september 2010,gategory F1,How many months it gonna be in USCS and NVC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/nvc-consular-processing-steps.html

      There are more links on right side of this page which could be helpful.

      Delete
  31. Amazon, any update to november visa bulletin predictions based on demand data ?

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/discuss


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