Wednesday, September 4, 2013

October 2013 Demand Data

Demand data is used by Department of State (DOS) to calculate the monthly visa bulletin dates. If you are not familiar with demand data, please see this article: What is Demand Data?

This blog post is a placeholder in case DOS decides to publish the October 2013 Demand Data. As most of you know, DOS also did not publish the August 2013 and September 2013 Demand Data.

Update: DOS did not release October 2013 demand data.

October is the first month in FY 2014. The annual EB quota would reset back to 140,000 visas per year. Each country in EB1, EB2 and EB3 categories would be limited to max around 2,802 visas per year.

October demand data would be very important for EB2 India. It would give a good idea on how many cases are pending before 2005 and 2006.

Let us assume porting rate to EB2 India for PD till June 2008 is around 4,000. In addition, let us assume there are around 16,000 cases which are preadjudicated till June 2008. Assuming a spillover of around 18,000 visas to EB2 India from other EB categories, there should be around 2,000 cases remaining.

These numbers do not include (a) huge amount of people porting from EB3 India to EB2 India for PD till June 2008 and (b) I-485 applications which have been filed but have not yet been preadjudicated (these would not show up in demand data). Hence the actual pending cases could be a lot higher.

Tip: While you are waiting, you can use the Find Hidden Visa Bulletin to locate the October 2013 Visa Bulletin before it is released to general public. Last month  this tool was used by around 30,000 users.


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30 comments:

  1. Hope they release the October demand data soon.

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  2. Anyone know when it is likely to be released?

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  3. more likely EB3 Philippines will retrogress as usual...sigh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I dont think so, they need more nurses now...

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    2. I don't think EB3 phil will retrogress,

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    3. Strongly agree, i predict EB3 Philippines will have a big leap for 2 months...

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  4. The vb prediction for October 2013 is confusing.how will uscis know the number of application to be received & processed by Sept 30. When they should release vb for Oct.2013 by next week.I was confused when I read the two determinant factors to how far it retrogress .let someone help me out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will be an approximate estimate. Example: If USCIS can process 100 applications in 7 days, it can process approx 300-400 in one month.

      Since each case can be different, the time to process each application could vary. It also depends on the USCIS officer (how fast/efficient they are, which cases they are processing (old PD or new PD), etc).

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  5. Any idea if EB2 India will move forward ? I'm in Nov 2008 EB2 India, I'm hoping at least by 2014 summer I can expect my dates to be current ?

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  6. The "Find Hidden Visa Bulletin" is a crap. Why dont you remove it

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    Replies
    1. You do realize that the tool will only work when they actually upload the file on the server?

      Once they upload that file, they will then add a link from the homepage.

      So instead of manually clicking refresh on default visa bulletin homepage, you can automatically scan all these different pages and find it as soon as they upload the file.

      Delete
    2. Amazon, I agree with you. The tool is working fine. I have been using it for 3+ months.

      Maybe anonymous 1 and 2 does not know how the internet and file hyperlinks works. :)

      Delete
    3. To Anonymous 1 & 2, you both are fools. Apparently you don't know how the internet works. You should change your internet service providers, they're the ones that are crap. The tool works for the 30,000 or so that have used it the past month. Amazon, keep up the good work.

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    4. For those who are not familiar, I will explain by comparing it to treasure hunting.

      In treasure hunting: (a) someone has to first hide the treasure at some location and (b) you have to go to lots of locations to try and find it.

      It is the same for Find Hidden VB Tool. In step (a) above, someone has to upload the file. However step (b) is automated. You do not have to go through lots of pages manually and try to find it. The tool will scan multiple pages for you and let you know as soon as it is uploaded.

      Example: Let us assume they upload a draft version of visa bulletin on Sept 6 or Sept 9. They may not link to this VB from their homepage till the 10th. Also they could decide to upload the draft version at 7000 or 8000 (instead of around 6080).

      If they upload it on Sept 6 and you scan for it on Sept 6, you will immediately find it, if URL is in correct range. So little trial and error maybe required.

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    5. Amazon, I think what the anonymous couple would like you to do is, they would like you to extend the range to ten thousand, LOL. Because they think they know the internet too much that everything should be automated. Oh wait, I don't think they understand what we're talking about.

      I just hate it when somebody here is working so hard to give free, meaningful advice and all of a sudden, some troll thinks the service he does to immigration humanity is utter crap. You know what they call those who check in to this website to mine vital information only to criticize it when they see something they cannot comprehend? They're called hypocrites.

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    6. My question is how many days in advance do they normally post it so that we can read it in advance using this tool - like whats the longest interval - is it 1 day 2 working or more like 10 days etc from your experience?

      Thanks!

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    7. YaAbalFazl - It fully depends on them. There is no fixed (or approximate) date or time

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    8. Hayabusa - Allowing 10,000 searches per person (and multiply by 30,000 people) would probably bring down the USCIS/DOS servers (like DDOS attack). Though our server would be running fine whether there are 10 searches or 1 million searches per minute.

      That reminds me, few weeks ago, we had a DDOS attack (pulling around 2 GB - 5 GB of data per hour). I think I know which website did it (but I wont name any names).

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    9. 50 pages per search should be enough, since difference is typically 30-40. We can scan again with higher number in another tab.

      Delete
  7. I have a pending I-485 in EB-2I category PD Oct. 2007. I-485 filed on March 2012. USCIS recd my response to RFE on July 5, 2013. but I haven't received any decision yet. Any idea what's the average or max time USCIS taking to process I-485 after receiving response to RFE? Thanks for your feedback!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The average processing time is typically 4 months. There is a link on right side of this blog under USCIS links called "USCIS processing time". This processing time is updated every 1-3 months.

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  8. My dad filed i130 for me and my brother on september 24th 2012 and was recently approved on september 12 2013. I really dont know how to read the bulletin. Please help me figure out when i am supposed to get an interview date. I live in Ghana.

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  9. My dad filed i130 for me and my brother on june 6th 2006. approved on 2008. GC calculator says your Priority Date may become current around December 2013.Amazon can you plz Tell me, How much time is rest, the visa Dunn.?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi.... Amazon, Can u plz reply....

      Delete
    2. I am not sure what you are asking? Do you want to know what happens after I-130 is approved? If yes, please see these two blog posts:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/nvc-consular-processing-steps.html

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/07/fb-category-frequently-asked-questions.html

      Delete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/discuss


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