Friday, October 11, 2013

Analysis: November 2013 Visa Bulletin And Demand Data

For November 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/visa-bulletin-november-2013.html

For November 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/november-2013-demand-data.html

As many of you know FY 2013 ended on Sept 30 and FY 2014 started on Oct 1. Spillovers are typically applied in last quarter of FY. Because of this there can be large forward  movement from July to Oct VB.

Many of these forward movements continues in the next fiscal year to build pipeline of new cases. This helps Department of State get a good understanding of (future) demands.

Department of State (DOS) publishes the monthly visa bulletin and demand data.

The analysis below include November 2013 Visa Bulletin and November 2013 demand data. The latest I-485 pending inventory should be out in few weeks.

Demand data overview: The total visa available for all EB applicants in FY 2014 is 148,000 (instead of the usual 140,000). The extra 8,000 could be due to unused visas from family based category in FY 2013. We had mentioned this would happen on July 12 (link see July 12 update).

Once the extra 8,000 spillovers from FB category is confirmed from independent sources, we will write a blog post on its distribution to all EB categories.

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current atleast for next 6-8 months (if not more). Demand is increasing at rate of around 1000 every month.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Surprisingly demand in EB2ROW is actually decreasing. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillovers in FY 2014 compared to FY 2013.

EB2 China: As expected, EB2 China has started moving forward. It moved forward by 3 weeks and should continue to move forward.

EB2 India: EB2 India did not move forward in this VB. As we had written earlier, DOS is holding the dates steady to get a good estimate of porting demand from EB3 India to EB2 India, as well as demand from original EB2 India applicants who are filing for the first time.

The latest EB2 India demand data does not have demand break down from year 2005 to 2008. It only says that the demand prior to Jan 2009 is 9,000. We will have  to wait for I-495 pending inventory to get a good estimate of demand by each year.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: The second biggest (surprising) forward movement was in EB3 ROW (and Mexico and China) category. This category moved forward by 3 months. In the latest demand data, DOS has mentioned that they have received sufficient demand (probably for the entire fiscal year).

Though dates moved forward by 3 months, it is possible that it could start retrogressing from December VB to make sure that visa allocations remains within the INA guidelines. The I-485 pending inventory (which should be out soon) would give a better idea of current demand. Hopefully the data would not be 50-60 days old (as it would not include the current demand)

EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 3 months. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for this fiscal year (unless demand is very high in EB3 category in which case EB3 China could start retrogressing).

The biggest forward movement was in EB3 China Other workers Category. This category moved forward by over 6 years. This may be a record for most forward movement in any category. Dates are now same as EB3 China.

EB3 Mexico: Similarly EB3 Mexico also moved forward by 3 months.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: There was no forward movement in EB3 India as we had predicted earlier. The good news is that DOS is holding dates steady and not retrogressing it. Since quota resets from Oct 1, EB3 India will only have annual quota of 2802 visas (which means slower movements due to huge demand in this category).

Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).

EB3 Philippines: Similar  to EB3 India, this category also did not moved forward. Both EB3 India and EB3 Philippines received a huge amount of spillovers from EB3 ROW in September visa bulletin. DOS allotted these visas because of low demand in EB3 ROW category and to prevent wasting these visas in FY 2013.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

F1 Philippines and F4 Phillippines had the most forward movement of 4 weeks in FB category. It has slowed down a lot from 4-6 months movement every month.

F2A Category: As expected, there was no further movement in this category. DOS is holding the dates steady to help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications  or consular processing cases. Once enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back and then continue to move forward slowly.  Please see article for more details for FB category.

Most other FB categories moved between 1 and 3 weeks.

Similar to all F2A categories, F1 Mexico also did not move forward this month.

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

If you have not done it yet, please add your USCIS/NVC case data to GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66%  - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

Also See:

Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

26 comments:

  1. AMAZON the link above forward you to September visa bulletin not to November visa bulletin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Abdul. The links have been updated. :)

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    2. Not a problem you always look forward to help all of us

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  2. Amazon, the current demand for EB3 Philippines is 2675 Prior ro January 1, 2013, does this mean that there is a big chance that those with PDs of 2013 will be current this FY or at least reach 2013 in VB since they will allot 2800 visas for this category? Thank you. :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Since Eb3 Philippines dates did not move after July 2007, the demand data only have demand till July 2007. Check out the I-485 pending inventory to get detailed data for each year.

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    2. Ok. I can't find the data for EB3 Philippines I-485. Do you have a link for it? I clicked this http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/uscis-eb-i-485-i-140-processing.html but I guess this shows the overall statistics and not specific to any country. Thank you for your help. :-)

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    3. Here is the direct link:

      http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

      Select the latest document and scroll down to Philippines. You will see the break down of demand by year.

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    4. I have also added a link on right side of this page called "I-485 Pending Inventory". It is under USCIS Links.

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  3. Hi Amazon! Please let us know when the I-485 pending inventory is available. Albait I know that DEC VB might not show forward movement for EB3ROW... I'd like to see the numbers. My PD is within the first week of OCT 2010. I don't really think there will be retrogression.... I think it might stall on OCT 1 for a couple months.., but seeing the new number would help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure Anonymous. The I-485 inventory would give a much better picture of existing demand.

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  4. Hi Amazon do you think F2A category may remain on the same dates up till January 2014 since they are trying to build pipeline of cases & January will be the fourth year of the FY 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a possibility of retrogression in Dec/Jan VB. USCIS should release the current demand soon.

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  5. Amazon, as I have posted before, thank you for your well thought out analysis and assessment of Visa Bulletin cut-off dates and movement and related subjects. They are typically the most reasonable and accurate that I have read.

    (A minor ‘exception’, as I have also posted about, is the continued forward movement of the EB3-ROW cut-off date once it passed the infamous July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco date and hit the subsequent 2008 - 2010 recession, which I thought may happen. The recession materially impacted foreign employees in EB3-ROW category (hiring went down dramatically, existing employees were laid off or otherwise left and abandoned their immigration, plus there was porting to EB2-ROW that was (and remains) current. Further evidence of this is the low demand in the EB2-ROW preference category.)

    On another subject, what is the impact (if any) of filing for adjustment of status (AOS) in September (end of FY2013) versus October (beginning of FY2014)? My priority date became current in the September 2013 Visa Bulletin (while I was expecting positive forward movement, the 18 months surprised me and even my lawyer). It has taken several weeks to initiate the AOS filing process, fill out questionnaires, gather the required documentation (including ordering long form birth certificates), get medical exams, complete and execute the forms, coordinate with my daughter who goes to college in another city, etc. Consequently, my and my family’s (except my son who ‘aged out’ last fall : () AOS is being filed next week (versus in September). After waiting for so many years, at this point I am more curious than anything specific (filing and my family getting their employment authorization documents are as important as how long it takes to approve and receive our permanent residency (green cards)).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. There is no impact on filing in Sept vs Oct. It is helpful to file it as early as you can.

      2. The 18 months movement was surprising even for USCIS/DOS. They were expecting much more applications when they moved dates forward few months back.

      However due to low volume of applications received, they had to move dates forward by 18 more months to prevent wastage. In addition, they also allotted many visas to EB3 India and Philippines.

      Since you are filing I-485, this would be helpful:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

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    2. Amazon, thank you for your reply. I received an e-mail from my employer's immigration attorney this morning that they have filed my and my family's adjustment of status today :).

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    3. That is great news. If you like, you can add your case to the GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

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  6. Amazon, My PD is Nov-17-2008 EB2-India. Looking at the demand data prior to Jan 2009 (9000), it seems like a lot of backlog prior to that date has been cleared. In July demand data demand prior to Jan 2009 was around 24,000.
    Looking at this data, how soon do you think my date would become current? Is it likely to become current in mid Fy14 or in the last bulleting of FY2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If fully depends on porting volume from EB3 India to EB2 India. The blog post below would be helpful:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb2-india-analysis-and-prediction.html

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  7. Hi Amazon,
    My PD is 10/02/2010 (ROW). Will it move next month? I missed by 2 days.
    Thanks,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
  8. I think one of your comment about EB3-China is misleading and misinformed. The reason why EB3-China advances in line with EB3-ROW is that its demand is very low, not because EB3-China received any Spillover. Only EB3-India (or maybe EB3 Philippines) got a bite on that ROW spillovers pie.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe meant EB 3 China - Other workers

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    2. Hi anonymous 1, you are correct. It was a typo in the EB3 Philippines section and it has been fixed. Thanks :)

      Only EB3 India and EB3 Philippines received spillovers from EB3 ROW.

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  9. Hi Amazon, why is it that there are no numbers indicated under EB3 Philippines I-485 pending inventory after September 2007(Only "1" for May 2008). What does this mean? Is it a good or a bad thing for us waiting for our PDs? Thanks. :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Since they did not move visa bulletin dates for EB3 Philippines after August 2007, it only has demand till September 2007.

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  10. hi amazon,i received my greencard last october 2010...should i file a petition for my wife tru F2a or should i wait for my citizenship??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can file it now (in F2A category) and later upgrade the application to IR-1 when you become citizen.

      Delete

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