For November 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/november-2013-demand-data.html
As many of you know FY 2013 ended on Sept 30 and FY 2014 started on Oct 1. Spillovers are typically applied in last quarter of FY. Because of this there can be large forward movement from July to Oct VB.
Many of these forward movements continues in the next fiscal year to build pipeline of new cases. This helps Department of State get a good understanding of (future) demands.
Department of State (DOS) publishes the monthly visa bulletin and demand data.
The analysis below include November 2013 Visa Bulletin and November 2013 demand data. The latest I-485 pending inventory should be out in few weeks.
Demand data overview: The total visa available for all EB applicants in FY 2014 is 148,000 (instead of the usual 140,000). The extra 8,000 could be due to unused visas from family based category in FY 2013. We had mentioned this would happen on July 12 (link see July 12 update).
Once the extra 8,000 spillovers from FB category is confirmed from independent sources, we will write a blog post on its distribution to all EB categories.
EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current atleast for next 6-8 months (if not more). Demand is increasing at rate of around 1000 every month.
EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Surprisingly demand in EB2ROW is actually decreasing. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillovers in FY 2014 compared to FY 2013.
EB2 China: As expected, EB2 China has started moving forward. It moved forward by 3 weeks and should continue to move forward.
EB2 India: EB2 India did not move forward in this VB. As we had written earlier, DOS is holding the dates steady to get a good estimate of porting demand from EB3 India to EB2 India, as well as demand from original EB2 India applicants who are filing for the first time.
The latest EB2 India demand data does not have demand break down from year 2005 to 2008. It only says that the demand prior to Jan 2009 is 9,000. We will have to wait for I-495 pending inventory to get a good estimate of demand by each year.
Please see this blog post for future updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.
EB3 ROW: The second biggest (surprising) forward movement was in EB3 ROW (and Mexico and China) category. This category moved forward by 3 months. In the latest demand data, DOS has mentioned that they have received sufficient demand (probably for the entire fiscal year).
Though dates moved forward by 3 months, it is possible that it could start retrogressing from December VB to make sure that visa allocations remains within the INA guidelines. The I-485 pending inventory (which should be out soon) would give a better idea of current demand. Hopefully the data would not be 50-60 days old (as it would not include the current demand)
EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 3 months. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for this fiscal year (unless demand is very high in EB3 category in which case EB3 China could start retrogressing).
The biggest forward movement was in EB3 China Other workers Category. This category moved forward by over 6 years. This may be a record for most forward movement in any category. Dates are now same as EB3 China.
EB3 Mexico: Similarly EB3 Mexico also moved forward by 3 months.
Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.
EB3 India: There was no forward movement in EB3 India as we had predicted earlier. The good news is that DOS is holding dates steady and not retrogressing it. Since quota resets from Oct 1, EB3 India will only have annual quota of 2802 visas (which means slower movements due to huge demand in this category).
Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).
EB3 Philippines: Similar to EB3 India, this category also did not moved forward. Both EB3 India and EB3 Philippines received a huge amount of spillovers from EB3 ROW in September visa bulletin. DOS allotted these visas because of low demand in EB3 ROW category and to prevent wasting these visas in FY 2013.
Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.
EB4: This category continues to remain current.
EB5: This category continues to remain current.
Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.
F1 Philippines and F4 Phillippines had the most forward movement of 4 weeks in FB category. It has slowed down a lot from 4-6 months movement every month.
F2A Category: As expected, there was no further movement in this category. DOS is holding the dates steady to help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications or consular processing cases. Once enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back and then continue to move forward slowly. Please see article for more details for FB category.
Most other FB categories moved between 1 and 3 weeks.
Similar to all F2A categories, F1 Mexico also did not move forward this month.
If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.
If you have not done it yet, please add your USCIS/NVC case data to GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/
Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".
Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.
- November 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/visa-bulletin-november-2013.html
- November 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/november-2013-demand-data.html
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