Friday, October 4, 2013

November 2013 Demand Data

Demand data is used by Department of State (DOS) to calculate the monthly visa bulletin dates. If you are not familiar with demand data, please see this article: What is Demand Data?

Demand Data for November 2013 Visa Bulletin has been released. Please see details below:

As most of you know, DOS did not publish the August 2013, September 2013 and October 2013 Demand Data.



They also added the following note for November 2013 demand data:

1. The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.

2. Information received from USCIS indicates that the amount of I-485 adjustment of status applications already filed in the Employment Third preference (on which USCIS has not yet finalized action) for countries other than India and the Philippines exceed the numbers currently available under the INA guidelines.

These filings are the result of the cut-off dates for those countries having been advanced by over three years since April. Such demand must be considered in the determination of the monthly cut-off dates to prevent any unnecessary fluctuation in those dates.

3. The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff dates do not apply, or for a category other than that which they initially filed for status.

Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of new dates.

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61 comments:

  1. Hi Amazon, is there a way for you to post the total amount of Approved Labor certifications since year 2005 or so. And if possible EB category distribution per country. I was able to find the amounts but I'm uncertain of the distribution. I did read that for recent years about 75% of approved LCs were filed by Indian citizens is that truly the case? Is there a way you could write something on the matter. Considering the recent big jump on EBROW and the comparatively low amount of LCs approved in FY09 and FY10 I would suspect that EBROW should not stall for much longer nor much less retrogress. Maybe by January (Q2 FY14) it can again move a significant amount of time. What are your thoughts? I'm awaiting VB to advance to at least mid october 2010 to become current (EBROW). Maybe this week might be it or perhaps around January..
    Thanks a lot for your time and dedication.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As Amazon posted in his blog on the "Visa Bulletin November 2013", "EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had moved forward by 18 months in September VB; since the demand was much lower than anyone (including USCIS/DOS) had expected. If the demand is much higher, EB3 ROW could potentially retrogress in Nov/Dec VB."

      I thought that there maybe considerable movement in the EB3ROW cutoff date after it passed the infamous July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco, as it would then be moving into those with priority dates from the recession (2008 - 2010), and unlike other countries of changeability ROW had low immigration numbers, as well as leaving, due to the economy during that period. Your assessment of future EB3ROW future movement based on PERM Labor Certification applications seems reasonable. I think EB3ROW will continue to see lower than expected demand.

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    2. I suppose we shall see what the NOV VB estates. Based on the assessment there should not be a retrogression for EB3 ROW. It'd be a hard kick to take too. Yet, if it were to advance it's hard to determine how much progress it would make. I'm practically already tasting my GC.
      Good luck to all! Stay positive...

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  2. I am just hoping for all future EB ROW cases that DOS moves dates accordingly and not waste any ROW visas on oversubscribed countries as happened last month of past FY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Would you mind providing more details/info about what you are pinpointing. Thanks.

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  3. Hi. How and when can we find out about demand data being released? Is there a link? What should I google for?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Currently they updated date for demand data as of 10/9/2013 but link still pulls old June demand data. Maybe they will reattach new document with new damnd.

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  4. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

    demand data for NOVEMBER 2013 bulletin

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  5. The demand data has been released, but it's not encouraging for EB3ROW :(

    "Information received from USCIS indicates that the amount of I-485 adjustment of status applications already filed in the Employment Third preference (on which USCIS has not yet finalized action) for countries other than India and the Philippines exceed the numbers currently available under the INA guidelines. These filings are the result of the cut-off dates for those countries having been advanced by over three years since April. Such demand must be considered in the determination of the monthly cut-off dates to prevent any unnecessary fluctuation in those dates."

    It sounds like a retrogression in the Nov/Dec bulletin is highly likely as more of these I-485s are approved by USCIS and make their way to DoS.

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    1. My understanding is it looks like very low demand for eb3row.. Am I wrong?

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    2. Unfortunately, I believe you are wrong. I believe there are more cases than available green cards for EB 3 ROW.

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    3. Indeed, the demand numbers are very low, but the note I cited is saying that even though demand is not hitting DoS yet, it looks like USCIS has already received enough applications to fill up the EB3ROW quota. This means that DoS is expecting that demand for visa numbers will materialize soon as USCIS begins approving those incoming applications, and is going to be sufficient to exhaust the quota without any further advancements of the EB3 priority date.

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    4. So it might not advance until the second quarter of FY14, you think? or you are saying all FY14 quota is covered?

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    5. You know, I'm not sure... I hope they were just talking about this quarter and not the entirety of FY2014. We'll know more when USCIS releases pending inventory data. There might also be additional commentary from CO in the Nov bulletin once it comes out.

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    6. It looks like EB3 ROW, Mexico and China could retrogress in Nov VB.

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    7. eb3row moved forward 3 months 10/1/2010 in Nov

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    8. What are you talking about? VB is not out yet... is it?

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    9. Mumbai Consulate has released a copy of November VB. Please see the link below:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/visa-bulletin-november-2013.html

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    10. Maybe somebody should call Chuck and advise him jsut to post bulletin on DoS site as well. Maybe he has day off today who knows.

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    11. It appears that somebody indeed called Chuck and he released official one.

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  6. Based on the demand data what is the prediction for november visa bulletin ?

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  7. Hello Amazon. How come the demand data for EB3-Philippines prior to Jan, 2007 is now is now down to 475? Four months ago, it was still at a high 3,300. How come they cleared 700 cases a month when it's supposed to clear only about 300 on average?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because a lot of spillovers from EB3 ROW was applied to EB3 India and Philippines.

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    2. A many is a lot? What the number?

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    3. USCIS will release the exact numbers in few months. The spillovers could be around 3000 to 8000 for both EB3 India and EB3 Philippines.

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  8. EB3ROW not looking so great.. - I was ready to pop the bubbly tomorrow. But it's not over till it's over. If it doesn't progress I just hope it DOES NOT move back... I don't wanna smash the bubbly. If it is stays on July 1, 2010 it would at least comfort me for till next VB... I hope Charles has great dreams tonight and a great day tmrrw. Best wishes to everyone. A little humor and positiveness won't hurt any of us. Let's count to 10 and count some blessings too. Stay positive and keep rocking. Patience is a like a tree with very bitter roots and much sweeter fruits. May all this madness one day be a story to tell with a very happy ending for everyone. Thanks Amazon for your site.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. How can look great when visas that suppose to go to ROW countries go to oversubsribed. I do understand better to give them than to waste any, however they should have start to move those dates for ROW before April in order to utilize all visas on ROW for FY '13.

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    2. Hi.. can you please direct me to where I can read about ROW visas going to I-P-M? I'd like to understand exactly what is that happened.. - how many were given elsewhere...? where did you read. Please add links here. thanks.

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    3. Do some math between what allocation number is for individual country, and then compare to pending demand data 4-5 months back and compare to current November demand.

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    4. Thanks Amazon. I just read it...
      "Extra unused visas were allotted to EB3 India and EB3 Philippines."
      So this happened because the big 18 month jump happened to late in the year? If that's the case.. then it truly makes no sense. At all.
      So... how far back a retrogression are we talking now? and when would it start moving forward again..? This is very sad. But we gotta keep chopping wood.
      BTW, how many visas spilled to P and I?
      Thanks again!

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    5. USCIS will release data on exact numbers in few months.

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  9. Amazon, does this mean that EB3 Philippines has a big chance of being current or at least reach '2013 PDs' this FY? Current demand data shows 2675 and with 2800 visas allocated per FY, these people could get current by this new FY. Am I correct. My PD is September 2013. I am quite happy with the movements in EB3 Phil. :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No chance getting current for Phils unless ROW is being current or reaches 2013.

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    2. Will EB3 ROW current this FY?

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    3. I I think that 2675 demand data it would be for the month of NOVEMBER. Not for the whole fiscal year..

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    4. I I think that 2675 demand data it would be for the month of NOVEMBER. Not for the whole fiscal year..

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    5. But it says there that it is the "CUMULATIVE demand prior to Januaryy 2013". So it must be the total. Maybe it is the demand AS OF November not the demand for November ALONE. I hope Amazon can enlighten us with this.

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    6. Since EB3 Philippines dates did not move beyond August 2007, the 2675 demand is only till that date. The I-485 pending inventory has complete details of demand by each year.

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  10. this is awesome news for ROW, hopefully now USCIS will get more time to process ROW cases since oversubsbribed countries did not move dates.

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  11. released, EB3 OCT 1 2010 in Nov

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what do you meant EB3 ROW? oct,1,2010

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  12. Great for eb3row... 16months to go and i can finally get that freaking green card.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 12 mo. here , fingers crossed maybe in FY14 ... maybe

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    2. 12 mo very likely in FY14. Hold tight! :) I'm Oct 6, 2010. almost there.

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  13. November visa bulletin http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6168.html

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hello Amazon,

    One basic doubt. In EB2 table the figures are cumilative? Or in other words, for India the figure is showing 27925 upto january 1 2013. It means the total people waiting in queue from the begin of time in EB2 queue or the people between 2010-2013?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Since EB2 India dates moved till only May 2010, the cumulative demand is only till May 2010.

      The demand from May 2010 to 2013 is unknown.

      Even exact demand in EB2 India from 2003 to 2010 is unknown because (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India and (2) people in EB2 India who did not yet submit the I-485 application.

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  15. My PD is Sept 2008 EB3 ROW and we filed our adjustment the 1st week of July. We didn't hear anything yet (except that the paperwork was received and the biometric appointment). Do the current demand data create a situation that the processing time can be longer than the average 4 months it took according to the processing times posted the last few times on the USCIS website?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have not received EAD and AP yet either?

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    2. Yes we did. The final approval game in this week (after RFE for spouse).

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  16. Will there be another 5-8 months movement for EB3 India like that happend a couple of months ago?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes possible, by Dec2013 or Jan2014 EB3 India may move one year forward making the cufoff date Sep 2004

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  17. Hi Amazon,

    My PD is Dec 11 2007. EB3 to EB2 (India) porting. My wife and I received our EAD/AP cards on 9/12/2013 and our applications were filed on 8/1/13 with a receipt date of 8/7/13.

    When do you think we should get our EAD cards. I checked that the regular processing times for I-485 is about 4 months so does that mean if all goes well we will have our green cards in December?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anyone have an answer to my question? The question is not specifically for Amazon. Thanks!

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    2. The four months is the typical processing time. Sometimes background check could take longer. There could be other factors too. It all depends on the USCIS officer.

      If you look at the GC tracker or comments in other blog posts, some I-485 application have been processed in just 60 days.

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  18. Any chance of EB3 ROW moving forward 18 months in the next FY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. by next FY I meant 2014 (ending Sep/2014).

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    2. It would depend on the demand from Oct 2010 to 2012. We would have to wait for I-485 pending inventory to see demand till October 2010.

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  19. Oh...My god...VB has moved for ONE YEAR in December...! Cheers...!

    ReplyDelete

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