Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:

EB2 India: Due to heavy demand (mostly from EB3 India applicant upgrading to EB2 India), DOS had to retrogress dates to February 2005. Date are expected to move forward around July 2015 (when it is expected to receive spillovers from other unused EB categories).

The good news is that DOS is currently considering moving the dates forward earlier in the year instead of waiting till last quarter of FY 2015. The main reason for waiting till Q4 2015 is that it gives DOS a good understanding of demand in other EB categories and help estimate unused visas and spillovers to other categories.

The biggest risk in moving dates earlier is that DOS estimate may be incorrect which may result in EB2 India receiving more visas than available. In that case, other EB categories may now have to wait till FY 2016 before their quota would be available.

By law, EB2 India is limited to quota of around 2,802 visas per year + any spillovers from other EB/FB categories. Estimating demand so early can be tricky, especially since demand continues to rise in EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB5 categories.

EB3 China: Currently EB3 China is ahead of EB2 China by more than a year. This has resulted in many applicant porting from EB2 China to EB3 China. This will result in increase demand in EB3 China.

Since DOS currently have no way to track porting, these applicants will be counted twice (which means it will not decrease count in EB2 China category when they port to EB3 China).

Also EB3 China dates are currently same as EB3 ROW. Due to this increased demand, dates for EB3 China could either slow or retrogress in the next few months.

EB5 China: Demand from EB5 China applicants continue to increase significantly. This could result in retrogression in this category.

The good news is that law allows spillovers across same categories. This means EB5 China can get visas from other EB5 countries. However this means spillovers to other EB categories (EB2, EB3) will decrease significantly.

There is also possibility of EB5 category using up all its available quota in the FY 2015.

All Categories: DOS is expected to provide their prediction for all categories in the February 2015 Visa Bulletin. You can follow us at Facebook or Twitter to get notified about the February 2015 Visa Bulletin. You can also sign up for automatic email notification in the Locate Hidden Visa Bulletin tool page.

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

Also See:

Recommended Reading:

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28 comments:

  1. What kind of prediction is that? How about FB category ?

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  2. F2A two to three weeks in Feb 2015

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  3. F2A no more then 2 and half or 3 weeks. basically from now it will 15 days per month. that's why there is no prediction.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi amazon. My PD is 1/06/2014. When will it be current (F2A)? thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It takes 5-6 Months.,as per the current movement

      Delete
  5. please give all visa eb3 india catorgey. please remove backlog one time

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  6. Hey guys u all are so worried for f2A so much then this is a golden chance to raise your voice DOS seeking recommendation for changing the visa bulletin according to user's need So comment on that to recapture the previous year unused visa to f2a make current

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/12/30/what-additional-steps-can-we-take-improve-our-immigration-system

    https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/12/30/2014-30641/immigration-policy

    ReplyDelete
  7. Here is the link where you can make your comment and the link is open till 29th january then all the recommendations will be considerd by mach 22

    http://www.regulations.gov/#!submitComment;D=USCIS-2014-0014-0001

    ReplyDelete
  8. Come on guys dont miss out this golden chance and comment to use all unused visa from previous years becoz they asked about what to do with unused visas from previous years

    ReplyDelete
  9. Circulate this link to all your friends this is the time to take your voice to the DOS and to aware them about all pain of ours due to this broken system. This is the only chance to make a huge difference dont miss this please

    ReplyDelete
  10. Guys raise ur voice for eb3 india. please remove backlog from eb3 india. please do.

    ReplyDelete
  11. How far DOS is considering moving the dates forward earlier in the year?

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  12. I had submitted my comment, I request every one to submit.., if you don't come forward you have to wait for more than two years....

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  13. http://www.regulations.gov/#!submitComment;D=USCIS-2014-0014-0001

    ReplyDelete
  14. All the F2A applicants come forward and join hands together to fight for our families....

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  15. I double checked those links, but there is nothing showing that they want to increase F2A visa numbers. I am not sure how useful those links are. additionally, it is sponsored by the USCIS. Mostly, all F2A applicants on this blog are waiting for their appointment letter not an approval letter from USCIS.

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  16. Hi everybody, i have a f2a case with a priority date december 16-2013, i didnt even got a response from my l-130 yet, this category was frozen for over 10 months last year, i think its time for us to raise our voices so DOS consider our f2a category and become bring it to current again since we experienced a big backlog, we believe in the family unity as god and the U.S. constitution says, not only 3-6 weeks, we're the closets category to an inmediate relative of the united states, most of our family member are serving and defending our nation in the military, we deserve more than couple weeks every month, it's time for us too

    ReplyDelete
  17. For all F2A petition . You will wait for immigration reform bill s744. Please I recommend that click this link nd call congress. That also help for F2A.

    https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s744#related

    ReplyDelete
  18. How early or In which visa bulletin will the dates move forward?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi F2A MEMBERS..... SIGN SIGN SIGN SIGN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    GOOGLE THE NEXT WORD :
    Make f2a current again since family unity goes first as god and the u.s. constitution says
    VOTE SO WE CAN BRING OUR CATEGORY CURRENT AGAIN, SPREAD THE WORD, WE CAN MAKE IT,
    SIGN SIGN SIGN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where we sign send link bro

      Delete
  20. F2A SIGN SIGN SIGN SIGN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://wh.gov/igTvy

    SIGN SIGN SIGN SIGN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey guys dont be act like fool. You all are talking about making f2a current by passing a bill if it gonna pass it will take about a year to be a law. Here DOS gives us a chance to raise the voice. They asked about what to do with unused family based visa So read all the questions carefully asked by them you can realize they want to eliminate the backlog in employment and famly based visa category both. They just seeking public support. So instead of crying here and living in the fantasy that a bill gonna pass. Comment here to use all family based unused visa it will almost make f2a category current

      http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketBrowser;rpp=25;po=0;dct=PS;D=USCIS-2014-0014

      Delete
  21. F2A will move at same pace. 3 to 5 weeks per months as per my lawyer.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hey guys dont be act like fool. You all are talking about making f2a current by passing a bill if it gonna pass it will take about a year to be a law. Here DOS gives us a chance to raise the voice. They asked about what to do with unused family based visa So read all the questions carefully asked by them you can realize they want to eliminate the backlog in employment and famly based visa category both. They just seeking public support. So instead of crying here and living in the fantasy that a bill gonna pass. Comment here to use all family based unused visa it will almost make f2a category current

    http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketBrowser;rpp=25;po=0;dct=PS;D=USCIS-2014-0014

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hey guys dont be act like fool. You all are talking about making f2a current by passing a bill if it gonna pass it will take about a year to be a law. Here DOS gives us a chance to raise the voice. They asked about what to do with unused family based visa So read all the questions carefully asked by them you can realize they want to eliminate the backlog in employment and famly based visa category both. They just seeking public support. So instead of crying here and living in the fantasy that a bill gonna pass. Comment here to use all family based unused visa it will almost make f2a category current

    http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketBrowser;rpp=25;po=0;dct=PS;D=USCIS-2014-0014

    ReplyDelete
  24. hi my pd is aug 6, 2006 F1 when will it be current? from philippines here. thanks

    ReplyDelete

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