Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:
EB2 India: Due to heavy demand (mostly from EB3 India applicant upgrading to EB2 India), DOS had to retrogress dates to February 2005. Date are expected to move forward around July 2015 (when it is expected to receive spillovers from other unused EB categories).
The good news is that DOS is currently considering moving the dates forward earlier in the year instead of waiting till last quarter of FY 2015. The main reason for waiting till Q4 2015 is that it gives DOS a good understanding of demand in other EB categories and help estimate unused visas and spillovers to other categories.
The biggest risk in moving dates earlier is that DOS estimate may be incorrect which may result in EB2 India receiving more visas than available. In that case, other EB categories may now have to wait till FY 2016 before their quota would be available.
By law, EB2 India is limited to quota of around 2,802 visas per year + any spillovers from other EB/FB categories. Estimating demand so early can be tricky, especially since demand continues to rise in EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB5 categories.
EB3 China: Currently EB3 China is ahead of EB2 China by more than a year. This has resulted in many applicant porting from EB2 China to EB3 China. This will result in increase demand in EB3 China.
Since DOS currently have no way to track porting, these applicants will be counted twice (which means it will not decrease count in EB2 China category when they port to EB3 China).
Also EB3 China dates are currently same as EB3 ROW. Due to this increased demand, dates for EB3 China could either slow or retrogress in the next few months.
EB5 China: Demand from EB5 China applicants continue to increase significantly. This could result in retrogression in this category.
The good news is that law allows spillovers across same categories. This means EB5 China can get visas from other EB5 countries. However this means spillovers to other EB categories (EB2, EB3) will decrease significantly.
There is also possibility of EB5 category using up all its available quota in the FY 2015.
All Categories: DOS is expected to provide their prediction for all categories in the February 2015 Visa Bulletin. You can follow us at Facebook or Twitter to get notified about the February 2015 Visa Bulletin. You can also sign up for automatic email notification in the Locate Hidden Visa Bulletin tool page.
Quick Note For All Categories:
When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.
Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.
- Immigration News (updated every 15 minutes): http://www.mygcvisa.com/news/
- January 2015 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/12/january-2015-visa-bulletin.html
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