Sunday, January 11, 2015

February 2015 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For February 2015 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/01/february-2015-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of February 2015 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1200-1400 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 800 per month. 

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 6 weeks in this visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward around 4 to 6 weeks per month.

EB2 India: As we had mentioned earlier, there was finally forward movement in EB2 India. After careful consideration, Department of State has decided to slowly move EB2 India dates forward starting from February Visa Bulletin, instead of waiting till around July Visa Bulletin (when demand and spillover from other category is better known).

The advantage is that dates would slowly move forward in EB2 India. The biggest disadvantage is who will get the maximum number of visas. Earlier when dates moves forward around July VB there was a 50-50 chance of either EB2 India or EB3 India porting to EB2 India to get the visa.

Now, DOS has decided to move dates slowly in February Visa Bulletin. Most of the EB2 India already would have approved (for PD around 2005). This means majority of visas would go to EB3 India porting to EB2 India (since there are very few original EB2 India remaining at this date).

If dates continue to move so slowly forward (as is expected to happen due to new strategy of allocation), a big chunk of visa would be used up by porters by the time dates move to around 2007-2008. This is good news for EB3 porters and not so good for original EB2 India applicants. Department of State has the authority to decide how/when to move dates forward, to make sure that all quota is used up.

So if (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to increase  and (2) spillovers from other EB categories decrease (due to increasing demand in these categories), the dates for EB2 India and EB3 India could get very close. As of last month,  the gap was only around 14 months.

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had another big jump in this visa bulletin. It again moved forward by 7 months, after moving forward by 7 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance rapidly for the next 1-2 months.

EB3 China: EB3 China also had also had a very big jump in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by 6 months, after moving forward by 9 months in last visa bulletin . In  August 2014 visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.

EB3 China is expected to continue to be ahead of EB2 China for next several months. Currently it is ahead by 1.5 years.

EB3 China Other workers category finally move forward by 3 weeks.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also moved forward by 6 months, after moving by 7 months in last visa bulletin.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 1 week. Due to high demand, this category is expected to move forward by 1-2 week in the next visa bulletin. The good news is that many applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

Hence the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count/identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand. However since dates for EB2 India has started moving slowly, as explained above, demand in EB3 India will decrease as porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases.

EB3 Philippines: EB3 Philippines had another big jump. This category moved forward by 6 months. It also moved forward by 7 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months, and dates are expected to remain the same as the EB3ROW and EB3 Mexico categories.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2015.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 2 weeks.

F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category.  F2A Mexico moved forward by 8 weeks. All other countries moved forward by 3 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 7 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 6 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 3 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 1 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 4 week. Philippines moved forward by 1 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 3 weeks. Mexico category moved forward by 4 week. Philippines moved forward by 3 weeks.

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".


Also See:


Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links -->

30 comments:

  1. HOW I SAID BEFORE, F2A WILL MOVE FORWARD 3 WEEKS IN THE FEB 2015 VISA BULLETIN 2015, THIS IS WHAT YOU CALL "GOOD NEWS" FOR THE COMING VISA BULLETIN F2A HOLDERS??????
    D.O.S.SHOULD BE IN OUR SHOES, WE'RE SUFFERING BECAUSE OF THIS LONG PERIODS OF WAITING, SOMETIMES I THINK D.O.S. ENJOYS LOOKING AT US SUFFERING BECAUSE OF THIS SITUATION.
    IT'S NOT FAIR AT ALL THAT EVERY MONTH WE CAN GET AN ADVANCE OF ONLY 3 WEEKS FORWARD WHEN WE DESERVE MORE THAN A SIMPLE LEFT OVER, NOT FAIR AT ALL.
    THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THIS "GOOD NEWS"
    IF THIS IS SUPPOSEDLY THE GOOD NEWS, I DONT WANNA KNOW WHAT IT WILL BE THE BAD NEWS THEN

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, I guess we are not concerned as people who respect law and must be rewarded by that , instead white house prefer to support illegals ! They simply can increase the number of unused visa to accelerate the number and reduce the time of waiting ! Hopefully it will be concerned eventually !

      Delete
    2. I think your Caps Lock is on

      Delete
  2. 01/09/2015: Rep. Jason Chaffetz of Utah Quietly Reintroduced Former H.R. 3012 in New H.R. 213 Yesterday

    Yesterday, the Congressman introduced in the House H.R. 213. "A bill to amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the per-country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants, to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants, and for other purposes" which was forwarded to the Committee on the Judiciary. The bill was and is cosponsored by Demoratic Rep. Zoe Lofgren of California. It is also co-sponsored by Republican Rep. Labrador of Idaho. Rep. Lofgren previously agreed to co-sponsor the previous controversial bill of H.R. 3012 on compromise to provide increase of per country numerical limitation for family-based immigration system, which is a Democratic legislative platform. Readers may recall that this bill was successful to pass the House and reached the Senate where Irish immigration bill was added and Sen. Grassley opposed to the passage. After a struggle, the Senate had almost compromised with Sen. Grassley, but eventually never made into a legislation. Now the same bill is back, probably without the Irish E-3 visa proposal and as a 114th Congress' new bill of H.R. 213. The text has yet to be made available. As soon as it is available, we will post it at this site. Here is the text of former H.R. 3012 just for refreshment of memory.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. here is a link. http://www.immigration-law.com/

      Delete
  3. Here is full of link

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/213

    ReplyDelete
  4. I couldn't open the link above ! As matter of fact couldn't open the summy ! Can post another link related to this subject ! Thank you !

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sorry to tell you that the summary is a in progress.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Wait fews days for summary . Maybe the voting start today

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure! Thank you ! Let's pray it will be passed !

      Delete
  7. Anyone know that how long take to pass Bill in house.

    ReplyDelete
  8. eb3 india poting eb2 india. it doesn't show it. why eb3 india take a big jump in visa bulletin. please Mr. Charles do something for eb3 India.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hope this bill pass as soon..., many applicants are struggling to stay with their families....

    ReplyDelete
  10. The bill says: "to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants,"
    It doesn't say "increase numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants,"
    I think it's just about increasing Mexico's 7% numerical limit. In law, one country can not use more than 7 % of each categories total visa number..
    Long story short, this bill maybe not help us at all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Read 2011 h.R 3012. They increase 7% to 15%

      Delete
    2. Read this summary . This is 2011 Bill but not much change in Bill h.R 213

      https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr3012#summary

      Delete
    3. Refer to what you said means , the cap for each country will be double ! WilL it l be increased From 7% to 14% ?

      Delete
    4. Okay, Let me be more clear: The number of visas issued for F2A category is around 87,000 each year. Any country can not more than 7% of this 87,000 visas. If the bill just says increase the percentage to 14% and keep the 87,000 same, then there is no change for us. Because only possible country exceeds 7% in this category is Mexico, then Mexico may utilize more from the same pool.
      The only bills helps us these :1)" Recapturing unused visas from the past" or 2) "Increasing yearly visa numbers from 87,000 to F2A category" or 3) "Making F2A applicants capp free because they are immediate family members like US citizen's spouses and children's"

      I don't know any other solution. And even I'm worried if the latest executive action effects us negatively....

      Delete
    5. Then that would be great for other categories of Row !

      Delete
    6. The only bills helps us these :1)" Recapturing unused visas from the past" or 2) "Increasing yearly visa numbers from 87,000 to F2A category" or 3) "Making F2A applicants capp free because they are immediate family

      members like US citizen's spouses and children's"

      This is in Bill h.R 213 or other Bill

      Delete
  11. There is no sentences in this bill about increasing F2A visa numbers..IT's increasing " PER COUNTRY NUMERICAL LIMITATION"

    Below is the bill
    H.R.213 - To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the per-country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants, to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants, and for other purposes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So they increase family category visa numerical 7% to 15%
      Am I right

      Delete
    2. Yes but it doesn't bring any advantage if you are not from Mexico. Because none of the other countries number of F2A applicants exceeds 7% of the total visa number...

      Delete
    3. It's exactly what I think, it only benefits México

      Delete
    4. No they didn't say anything Mexico . They just increase family category visa numerical

      Delete
  12. This will become good news for family category visa bill H.R 52
    https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/52/all-actions

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So how many bills are currently? H.R 52 and H.R.213?
      Is there a chance that they get approved?

      And I don't understand how it will affect F2A category por ROW

      Delete
    2. Chances of approval is very low..., pray some thing good happens to F2A

      Delete
  13. i think the main issue between congress and president is about illegal immigrants and prevent deporting them....and they kept saying we have common in few aspects.so i hope one of this aspect is (abot F2A) considering the spouses,..of permAnent residents spouses,. like U.S citizens

    ReplyDelete
  14. Summary: H.R.213 — 114th Congress (2015-2016)All Bill Information (Except Text)



    There is one summary for this bill. Bill summaries are authored by CRS.

    Shown Here:
    Introduced in House (01/08/2015)

    Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2015

    Amends the Immigration and Nationality Act to: (1) eliminate the per country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants, and (2) increase the per country numerical limitation for family based immigrants from 7% to 15% of the total number of family-sponsored visas.

    Amends the Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992 to eliminate the provision requiring the reduction of annual Chinese immigrant visas to offset status adjustments under such Act.

    Sets forth the following transition period for employment-based second and third preference (EB-2 and EB-3) immigrant visas:
    •for FY2015, 15% of such visas allotted to natives of countries other than the two countries with the largest aggregate numbers of natives obtaining such visas in FY2011;
    •for FY2016, 10% of such visas allotted in each category to natives of countries other than the two with the largest aggregate numbers of natives obtaining such visas in FY2012; and
    •for FY2017, 10% of such visas allotted in each category to natives of countries other than the two with the largest aggregate numbers of natives obtaining such visas in FY2015.

    Sets forth the following per country distribution rules: (1) for transition period visas, not more than 25% of the total number of EB-2 and EB-3 visas for natives of a single country; and (2) for non-transition period visas, not more than 85% of EB-2 and EB-3 visas for natives of a single country.
    Provides that the amendments made by this Act will take place as if enacted on September 30, 2014, and shall apply beginning in FY2015.

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum


Comments posted above will only appear in this blog post. Comments posted below will appear across all blog posts:

comments powered by Disqus