Please see below analysis of February 2015 Visa Bulletin:
EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1200-1400 every month (per the latest pending inventory).
EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 800 per month.
EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 6 weeks in this visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward around 4 to 6 weeks per month.
EB2 India: As we had mentioned earlier, there was finally forward movement in EB2 India. After careful consideration, Department of State has decided to slowly move EB2 India dates forward starting from February Visa Bulletin, instead of waiting till around July Visa Bulletin (when demand and spillover from other category is better known).
The advantage is that dates would slowly move forward in EB2 India. The biggest disadvantage is who will get the maximum number of visas. Earlier when dates moves forward around July VB there was a 50-50 chance of either EB2 India or EB3 India porting to EB2 India to get the visa.
Now, DOS has decided to move dates slowly in February Visa Bulletin. Most of the EB2 India already would have approved (for PD around 2005). This means majority of visas would go to EB3 India porting to EB2 India (since there are very few original EB2 India remaining at this date).
If dates continue to move so slowly forward (as is expected to happen due to new strategy of allocation), a big chunk of visa would be used up by porters by the time dates move to around 2007-2008. This is good news for EB3 porters and not so good for original EB2 India applicants. Department of State has the authority to decide how/when to move dates forward, to make sure that all quota is used up.
So if (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to increase and (2) spillovers from other EB categories decrease (due to increasing demand in these categories), the dates for EB2 India and EB3 India could get very close. As of last month, the gap was only around 14 months.
Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.
EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had another big jump in this visa bulletin. It again moved forward by 7 months, after moving forward by 7 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance rapidly for the next 1-2 months.
EB3 China: EB3 China also had also had a very big jump in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by 6 months, after moving forward by 9 months in last visa bulletin . In August 2014 visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.
EB3 China is expected to continue to be ahead of EB2 China for next several months. Currently it is ahead by 1.5 years.
EB3 China Other workers category finally move forward by 3 weeks.
EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also moved forward by 6 months, after moving by 7 months in last visa bulletin.
Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.
EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 1 week. Due to high demand, this category is expected to move forward by 1-2 week in the next visa bulletin. The good news is that many applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.
Hence the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count/identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand. However since dates for EB2 India has started moving slowly, as explained above, demand in EB3 India will decrease as porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases.
EB3 Philippines: EB3 Philippines had another big jump. This category moved forward by 6 months. It also moved forward by 7 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months, and dates are expected to remain the same as the EB3ROW and EB3 Mexico categories.
Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.
EB4: This category continues to remain current.
EB5: This category continues to remain current.
Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2015.
F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 Mexico also moved forward by 2 weeks.
F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category. F2A Mexico moved forward by 8 weeks. All other countries moved forward by 3 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.
F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 7 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 6 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 3 weeks.
F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 1 week. Mexico category also moved forward by 4 week. Philippines moved forward by 1 week.
F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 3 weeks. Mexico category moved forward by 4 week. Philippines moved forward by 3 weeks.
If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/
If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.
Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".
- Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/12/latest-uscis-visa-bulletin-predictions.html
- January 2015 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/12/january-2015-visa-bulletin.html
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