Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:
EB2 India: As mentioned in the earlier blog post, DOS has started moving dates forward in EB2 India starting from February 2015 Visa Bulletin. The expected forward movement is 4-6 months for the next several months.
Since the dates are moving slowly, most of the visas would be allocated to EB3 India who are upgrading to EB2 India; since very few original EB2 India are remaining at this date. If the porting continues to increase, DOS is expecting dates to move forward by maximum Summer 2009 for FY 2015. This is similar to dates reached by EB2 India for FY 2014.
By law, EB2 India is limited to quota of around 2,802 visas per year + any spillovers from other EB/FB categories. Estimating demand so early can be tricky, especially since demand continues to rise in EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB5 categories. Hence they are slowly moving dates forward instead of a big jump as they did in previous years.
EB3 India: EB3 India is expected to move forward by up to 2 weeks per month. The good news is that since many applicants are porting from EB3 India to EB2 India, the demand in EB3 India will decrease allowing it to move forward faster later.
EB3 China: Currently EB3 China is ahead of EB2 China by more than a year. This has resulted in many applicant porting from EB2 China to EB3 China. This will result in increase demand in EB3 China.
Since DOS currently have no way to track porting, these applicants will be counted twice (which means it will not decrease count in EB2 China category when they port to EB3 China).
Also EB3 China dates are currently same as EB3 ROW. EB3 China can reach 2012 or even later if demand is low. More accurate prediction are hard, since DOS cannot count downgraded cases; unless USCIS requests visa for these cases.
EB5 China: Demand from EB5 China applicants continue to increase significantly. This could result in retrogression in this category by around summer 2015.
The good news is that law allows spillovers across same categories. This means EB5 China can get visas from other EB5 countries. However this means spillovers to other EB categories (EB2, EB3) will decrease significantly.
There is also possibility of EB5 category using up all its available quota in the FY 2015.
All Categories: Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories.
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Quick Note For All Categories:
When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.
Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.
- Immigration News (updated every 15 minutes): http://www.mygcvisa.com/news/
- February 2015 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/01/february-2015-visa-bulletin.html
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