Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:

EB2 India: As mentioned in the earlier blog post, DOS has started moving dates forward in EB2 India starting from February 2015 Visa Bulletin. The expected forward movement is 4-6 months for the next several months.

Since the dates are moving slowly, most of the visas would be allocated to EB3 India who are upgrading to EB2 India; since very few original EB2 India are remaining at this date. If the porting continues to increase, DOS is expecting dates to move forward by maximum Summer 2009 for FY 2015. This is similar to dates reached by EB2 India for FY 2014.

By law, EB2 India is limited to quota of around 2,802 visas per year + any spillovers from other EB/FB categories. Estimating demand so early can be tricky, especially since demand continues to rise in EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB5 categories. Hence they are slowly moving dates forward instead of a big jump as they did in previous years.

EB3 India: EB3 India is expected to move forward by up to 2 weeks per month. The good news is that since many applicants are porting from EB3 India to EB2 India, the demand in EB3 India will decrease allowing it to move forward faster later.

EB3 China: Currently EB3 China is ahead of EB2 China by more than a year. This has resulted in many applicant porting from EB2 China to EB3 China. This will result in increase demand in EB3 China.

Since DOS currently have no way to track porting, these applicants will be counted twice (which means it will not decrease count in EB2 China category when they port to EB3 China).

Also EB3 China dates are currently same as EB3 ROW. EB3 China can reach 2012 or even later if demand is low. More accurate prediction are hard, since DOS cannot count downgraded cases; unless USCIS requests visa for these cases.

EB5 China: Demand from EB5 China applicants continue to increase significantly. This could result in retrogression in this category by around summer 2015.

The good news is that law allows spillovers across same categories. This means EB5 China can get visas from other EB5 countries. However this means spillovers to other EB categories (EB2, EB3) will decrease significantly.

There is also possibility of EB5 category using up all its available quota in the FY 2015.

All Categories: Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories.

Tip: You can follow us at Facebook or Twitter to get notified about the March 2015 Visa Bulletin. You can also sign up for automatic email notification in the Locate Hidden Visa Bulletin tool page.

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

Also See:

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53 comments:

  1. What about F2A??????????

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    Replies
    1. Nothing.... I frustrated......

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  2. What does this means : "All Categories: Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories"???

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  3. It means: F2A will be moving forward as fast as possible, no need to wait till the end of FY. But It looks like different from Visa bulletin prediction last month. Confusing...

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  4. I think DOS should move F2A forward 4-5 months to see the really demands in FY2015, and then they will know exactly the visa number they will issue. If the demand is enough then they can keep the PD is same or retrogress the PD later!

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    Replies
    1. They keep same pd that's means pd will not move slowly

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  5. Any update about F2A movement in March 2015 ?

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  6. why eb3 india moving fast? please let me know my pd july 2006 india. when i will get green card

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  7. F2A guys...How do you file your taxes? Single or married ??? It's asking in the tax form and there is a big difference in return if we file married..but then it's asking SSN...Any comments??

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  8. F2a catagories wait 2 years ...!! 😷👎

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  9. Any predications for F2A movement ?

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  10. F2A may move forward 4-5 months

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    Replies
    1. Yes. in next 6 months it move forward 4-5 months.

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    2. what is the sourse of this information?

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    3. 3-4 weeks per month means in 6 months it will move 5 months.

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  11. See this link what is spillover. http://blog.uscis.gov/2010/03/visa-numbers.html?m=1

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  12. slow movement of f2a category is killing my life...............plz make it fast atleast 2-3 months of movement......

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  13. how much will f2a move in coming visa bulletin ???

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    1. No Idea still...... We hope it will move forward more than 3-4 months.... In the current year 2015 quota F2A had moved less than 4 months..., very very low average movement.....

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    2. Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories"

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    3. If they do spillover then F2A move 4 - 5 months bczz spillover rules that 87,934, plus a portion of any remaining visa numbers from the FB 1s

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  14. Any update about F2A movement in March ? Is there any update about any bill in the house ? please give updates

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    1. Only one way They make F2a movements fast . If they apply spillover rules. Generally they don't do very year. Last year they did on EB category so this year maybe they do on FB

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  15. In VB Feb 2015 they predict the trend of F2A: 3-4 weeks but they also mentioned that they not warranty their prediction will be correct, so if F2A is moving more than 1 month will be normal.

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  16. My American husband is frustrating to see me missing my children,waiting several years for them ,every day talking about the same,looking for immigration news every time.
    F1 US sponsoring adult single children Family Based category takes around 8 years.
    We are older now and we would like to make some plans to our live.
    We don't want to be alone for old years so far to children and grand children.
    They must think about live too to make family,home and children.
    I can't stop them.
    What to do with our situation.
    They can't come and stay with us in US.
    We and they must wait many many years.'
    We are thinking maybe sale our house,left our job,take our old mom and move to my children.
    It is no any chance to help with Family Based Immigration?
    Never in our US history was same like today : if you have US citizen family you must wait many years for Green Card.
    Better be only Permanent Resident,this category is much faster.
    I'm missing my children every day.

    .

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    Replies
    1. Very sad to hear..., you are true... many families are waiting to join together and live their life together.., frustration is killing..., how can you divide Husband wife and children, is this Law ? Most important category in FB is F2A they should have eliminated from the wait time... don't separate husband and wife...

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    2. More than 2 years wait time for F2A, my god, great law...., once our dates become current it takes nearly 4-5 months to complete the interview one more wait time.... torture.....

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    3. Once you file the petition it takes 6 months to 1 year or more to get approval, once we get the approval we have to wait for our priority date to become current it takes 2 year currently, then after we need to submit our documents at NVC they takes 4-5 months till scheduling the interview.... unbelievable procedure.., they will kill the families....

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    4. My petition I-130 F1 / US citizen sponsored single children more than 21 years old/ was approved one year ago.
      Now in National Visa Center. is waiting for Visa.
      This waiting time is around ????How many years for Europe?
      The priority date Visa Bulletin Feb is 22 Jul 2007.
      Looks like US citizen waiting for adult single children 9 years.
      Can be longer is our gov. doesn't help with.
      No body think about it today.
      10 years ago US citizen was waiting for sons and daughter only 2 years.
      Today is 9 years.
      Also children can't get married because the petition will jump from single people to married and the tome for visa will be couple years more or maybe never.
      On this situation US families live really alone.
      When they will be old no body will be care about them,who will take old people to senior care home?Who will pay bills?
      Who will take to doctor.
      This is so sad live for older people.
      For yang people waiting many years for visa in another country make complicates their live ,to seat on luggage 9 years and waiting.
      US citizens spend all money to buy expensive fly tickets for children,spend Dollars for visiting,send Wester Union to help for children survive during this time.
      Why?They are adult.
      Why not to go to vacation in Hawaii.
      Also the missing time is so painful.
      I understand one year waiting time.
      But 9 years if petition is approved?
      If children never broken law,after US visiting come back and never stay illegal?
      The reward for them is waiting time.
      No body think about it.
      We think today about workers,employer visas,money but no about Family Based .
      Hope some important Officer or person will read what I wrote from my heart.
      I teach my children live accordance with the law,we respect the law and hope good about our future.
      I so appreciate US embraced me to this country and give me a chance for good live.
      God bless America.



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  17. Half of you right but now they approve in 6 months or 1years after they send your petition to nvc for process. If your prority date become current in year they will send you notice that pay fees nd submit that document. Onces your petition date become current they will send you visa interview date with in 1month

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    Replies
    1. Any update about F2A movement ?

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    2. Overall the procedure is killing us, it's a torture

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  18. Yes it' kill families. I got approved in 5 months now my petition in nvc too. I called to nvc and they gave me case number but after they said wait for prority date become current or become current in year . Nvc will send mail .

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    Replies
    1. What is your priority date ?

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  19. Replies
    1. Very long wait time is expected for you, more than a year.., according to the current movement in F2A, hope some thing good happens....my priority date 16 Jan 2014 waiting from a year....

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    2. any PD 9,10,11 2013 pay AOS and visa?????
      the visa buletin for this month is MAY 8 2013
      but still NOTHING

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  20. The Bill Is Introduced
    The Bill Goes to Committee
    The Bill Is Reported
    The Bill Is Debated
    The Bill Is Voted On
    The Bill Is Referred to the Senate
    The Bill Is Sent to the President
    The Bill Is a Law
    If a bill has passed in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate and has been approved by the President, or if a presidential veto has been overridden, the bill becomes a law and is enforced by the government.

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  21. My pd is 26th feb 2014, when f2a'll be current? Hw much time I hv 2 wait?

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    Replies
    1. According to the current movement it takes 8-9 months for your priority date to become current....

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    2. I think it takes more than 8 months....

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    3. I believe dates will move around 8 months in August

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    4. Oh no still 8 months :( :( I can't wait to see my husband, missing him a lot

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    5. It takes around 8 months for your priority date to become current, then it takes 4-5 months for NVC to schedule your interview....

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    6. It takes more than one year for the whole process, hope some thing good happens...

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  22. Please share if sm1 got interview letter with priority date...mine pd is 7th june 2013..still waiting for interview letter.

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  23. HI EVEYONE....MY PD IS FEBRUARY-2014 FOR F2A ,SO HOW MUCH MORE DO I HAVE TO WAIT TO BE CURRENT? PLEASE ESTIMATE AND HELP

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    Replies
    1. Best case scenario in July 2015..Worst case scenario nobody knows

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    2. thank you so much...July 2015 would be awesome but if any longer is terrible...

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  24. HI EVEYONE....MY PD IS FEBRUARY-2014 FOR F2A ,SO HOW MUCH MORE DO I HAVE TO WAIT TO BE CURRENT? PLEASE ESTIMATE AND HELP

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/discuss


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