Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:

EB2 ROW: Demand for EB2 ROW has increased dramatically in the last few months. For example: Demand increased by 80% between February and March 2015 and more than 100% between February and April 2015. At this time, EB2 ROW category is estimated to remain current for this fiscal year (since it can use the unused visa numbers from EB4, EB5 and EB1 categories).

EB2 India: As mentioned in the earlier blog post, DOS has started moving dates forward in EB2 India starting from February 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Earlier DOS had expected to move dates forward to around July 2009 for FY 2015. This is similar to dates reached by EB2 India for FY 2014. However due to sudden increase in demand in EB2 ROW, there would be a smaller number of unused visa left for EB2 India category; which could impact forward date movement for FY 2015.

In addition, porting continues from EB3 India to EB2 India category; which could further reduce  supply for EB2 India.

By law, EB2 India is limited to quota of around 2,802 visas per year + any spillovers from other EB/FB categories. Estimating demand so early can be tricky, especially since demand continues to rise in EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB5 categories. Hence they are slowly moving dates forward instead of a big jump as they did in previous years.

EB3 India: EB3 India is expected to move forward by up to 2 weeks per month. The good news is that since many applicants are porting from EB3 India to EB2 India, the demand in EB3 India will decrease allowing it to move forward faster later.

EB2/EB3 China: Due to significant retrogression in April 2015 visa bulletin for EB3 China and forward movement in EB2 China, EB2 China is finally ahead of EB3 China.

The demand in EB2 China continues to be low,  even after it received large forward movement in the last few months. To make sure that all visas will be used up, EB3 China will received unused visa in EB2 China category.

Due to large number of upgrades/downgrades (when EB3 China was ahead of EB2 China) and DOS not having accurate estimate of these upgrades/downgrades, there is no clear visibility on these two categories at this time.

EB3 Philippines: Due to continuous heavy demand in this category, further retrogression is possible in the next visa bulletin. This retrogression may also apply to EB3 Philippines Others Workers category.
 
EB5 China: Demand from EB5 China applicants has increased significantly resulting in retrogression in May 2015 Visa Bulletin. DOS currently do not estimate any forward movement in this category for the next visa bulletin.

The good news is that law allows spillovers across same categories. This means EB5 China can get visas from other EB5 countries. However this means spillovers to other EB categories (EB2, EB3) will decrease significantly.

There is also possibility of EB5 category using up all its available quota in the FY 2015.

All Categories: Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories.

Tip: You can follow us at Facebook or Twitter to get notified about new blog posts. You can also sign up for automatic email notification for latest visa bulletin in the Locate Hidden Visa Bulletin tool page.

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

Also See:

Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links -->

119 comments:

  1. What to expect with F2A

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My wife is in US and we received a letter to go for embassy interview (F2A)? should I call them to change something or just wait for priority date to become current and then apply for AoS?

      Delete
    2. What is your PD???

      Delete
  2. F2A Any one received interview letter priority date Oct 2013 to Jan 2014

    ReplyDelete
  3. 2 or 3 month before the priority date close to current NVC starts sending welcome letter to begin the process, Now I don't understand why they are sending welcome letters to start NVC process, till june 2014 all the F2A applicants started nvc process, while we see the movement it is just 4 weeks every month....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes well said..., very low movement for F2A in 2015..., don't know when will they take a jump atleast for 2 months is good enough

      Delete
    2. My wife is in US and we received a letter to go for embassy interview (F2A)? should I call them to change something or just wait for priority date to become current and then apply for AoS?

      Delete
  4. hi... my pd is 14 sep 2013 and they haven't finished my case you know when I get interview letter .......thnks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh my god, not yet completed the case..., it takes 2 months to complete the case at nvc

      Delete
    2. now they take one month

      Delete
  5. F2a for mexico priority date september 13... We are waiting for our interview date any news.

    ReplyDelete
  6. F2a for mexico priority date september 13... We are waiting for our interview date any news.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Is there anyone how received IL oct 2013????

    ReplyDelete
  8. I am not able to access choice of agent form knline.. Neither I can pay my fees... They gave me case number and invoice id number a week ago

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. same here. we should wait until they solve the problem with their stupid website

      Delete
  9. No F2A applicants had received Interview Letter this month....

    ReplyDelete
  10. PD 30Sep2013 F2A - I sent Check list two weeks ago and still waiting IL. Someone know how long NVC will take to review the Check list and schedule an IL? Thanks and good luck all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 60 days to review the case..., after case complete it takes one month to schedule the interview

      Delete
    2. 30 days now

      Delete
    3. My case has been completed since March 2015 and I still haven't received IL as yet F2B April 2008.

      Delete
  11. F2A will not move in July Bulletin, it remains same Oct

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. seems your dad told you last night..is it?

      Delete
    2. Maybe they start today or 2moro by phone call .. dont think about regression

      Delete
  12. Guys, anyone F2A visa with november2013 PD got interview letter?? Please help me out here
    My case been closed since may18 and nothing yet!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They didnt start yet ..

      Delete
  13. Helo Guys, PD August 2014. Got Invoice and Case number on phone call to NCV

    ReplyDelete
  14. Has anybody an idea what should I do? I am not able to fill DS-260 and I already sumitted visa fees and supporting documents. (How long it will take to fix the issue at NVC?)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Foam open in Internet explore. They work

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the reply but I have a situation like this. When I click on DS-260 link, it leads me to the Invoice page where it is still showing "Pay Now" link available to pay IV fees despite I paid IV fees(by mail), 4 weeks ago and also, I have submitted documents for the same. NVC received and processed the IV fees. PD: March 2014.

      Delete
  15. hey do anyone know if nvc has started scheduling becuz my priority date is 0ct 8th 2013 case is complete. I remember last month they start via the phone on the 28th

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. U should call nvc then!! Mine pd is NOV

      Delete
  16. Still no F2A applicants had received Interview Letter this month....

    ReplyDelete
  17. I guess if it's not tomorrow they will start schedule interviews the first two weeks in June.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anyone start receiving interview letter as yet? Are has anyone called NVC about IL? please update.

    ReplyDelete
  19. i called last night i was told not ready .....priority date 8th oct 2013
    someone please call today it could be ready ... please update if you do call

    ReplyDelete
  20. Can you clarify EB-2 demand increase? Last month you mentioned demand has been pretty low - what is the difference here?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Any one received interview letter, plz update.....

    ReplyDelete
  22. Guys, anything? any update ? any hopes?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Still now, no one had received interview letter... they may start sending in the first week of june

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will see this coming week hoping they will send il for pd october

      Delete
  24. Anyhthing? Looks nothing this time. I believe october will be retrogression for F2A.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. F*king asshole. At least give a sourse before saying ur bullshit

      Delete
    2. Don't write nonsense, wait patiently for the bulletin to be release. NVC never predicted retrogression in this fiscal year for F2A or any family base category. Rather, it said there MAY be slow movement in next 3 Months bulletin ending this fiscal year. (3-6 weeks)

      Delete
  25. this would be very disappointing... a second time to go through this retrogresssion thats not right

    ReplyDelete
  26. Stop this non scense, F2A need a big jump not retrogession...., till july 2104 NVC had started the process.., think before you say something....

    ReplyDelete
  27. F2A need a big jump, expected in Aug or Sep, very slow movement for F2A this year...

    ReplyDelete
  28. F2A will reach Jan 2014 in the upcoming bulletin....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what is the source for the information? I mean any reliable sources?

      Delete
    2. Yes, explain us what is source that you got it information, people saying lie always, i don´t know how they can play with our feelings.

      Delete
  29. I don't understand how many more years F2A will be in the year 2013.., limits crossed....


    ReplyDelete
  30. Since 3 years F2A still remains in 2013, very horrible year..., i dont know how many months more they will take to cross 2013 year....

    ReplyDelete
  31. Guys any update with F2A

    ReplyDelete
  32. F2A any one got the interview letter this week...

    ReplyDelete
  33. How it is possible no one had received interview letter this month....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's still early days I called this morning and I was told that they haven't started scheduling interviews for July as yet. So maybe by the end of this week they might start sending out IL .

      Delete
  34. There are guys got IL please follow this link:

    http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/550158-f2a-october-2013-fillers/page-5#entry7656403

    ReplyDelete
  35. They fix there problem in 10days ..

    http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/general/assistance-for-applicants-experiencing-technical-difficulties.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. finally, they have given some estimation about fixing the issue.

      Delete
  36. Guys is there anyone recieve il? pd october 2013 category f2a...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. saw in different blog...PD 7 Oct 2013 got IL

      Delete
    2. Yes I called and they already scheduled interview for me for July 30th. F2A PD is 11/4/2013.

      Delete
    3. from what country you from man wilson?

      Delete
    4. Country of Chargeability is Nigeria.

      Delete
  37. Hii all, I paid my AOS fees.. And whats the next step now...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Submit aos package nd iv packages together but different envolop

      Delete
    2. did you pay both "Affidavit of Support (AOS) Fees" and "IV Application Processing Fees " today? only IV fee is available to be payed in their website!

      Delete
    3. Just paid ais fees... M not able to pay IV fee

      Delete
  38. Most of them said many things last month, regarding big jump and unused visas for F2A...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PD 2013 Nov 4th. Just called NVC and has been scheduled for interview for July 30th. F2A category. Everyone should take note

      Delete
    2. Really some people pd nov 1 2013 didnt get il get .. i dont believe

      Delete
    3. It might be true, interviews are scheduled based on country availability, not by date.

      Delete
  39. PD 2013 Nov 4th. Just called NVC and has been scheduled for interview for July 30th. F2A category. Everyone should take note.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congratulations. .

      Delete
  40. Hello friends;
    I'm getting this page as my IV and AOS fee payment, but I only have IV page to pay and there is no item for AOS. Is this normal? So how I can pay AOS fee?
    I attached the screen shot
    Thanks
    http://i.imgur.com/QEm8rqN.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm living in US. Is this the reason I don't need to pay AOS fee?

      Delete
    2. @Aaron: If you are in F2A category than I might need to pay fees as well. My case has been transferred to the NVC. I am living inside the US since last 5 years. When my wife called USCIS, they told her that when priority date will become current NVC will transfer my petition back to USCIS.

      Delete
    3. If you are adjusting status then no, and you need to contact the NVC of this. If you are going through consular processing then you still need to pay.

      Delete
  41. Good news priority date Nov 4,2013 had received Interview letter... i think F2A will reach till Dec or Jan in next bulletin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That would be great but I doubt it, it will probably be a 6 week movement.

      Delete
  42. Today called NVC priority date Nov 06 2013 got IL, gud luck every one....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When was your case completed?

      Delete
    2. Interview date please

      Delete
  43. hi i completed ds260 anyone please tell me where will we get form I-864.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In nvc official website. . What is your pd

      Delete
    2. Sorry u can find on uscis website

      Delete
  44. I am still not able to fill DS260. Although, it was not showing anything earlier but now I am able to see that IV fees (Not Invoiced) status (though I have paid it via email). Still waiting to have a link for DS260.

    ReplyDelete
  45. My husband interviewed today for f2a and he got approved but the nvc status says administrative processing

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congratulation n gud to hear

      Delete
    2. Sorry to hear, administrative processing means that they will do more of background check again on him at it takes approximately 6 months . I hope this is not the case. I know it's sucks but nothing you can do. Hopefully you will get together very soon

      Delete
    3. hi, please send me your email id i will send you some useful information.

      Delete
    4. My husband status changed from AP TO ISSUED😀

      Delete
    5. Awesome!! Congrats and I hope you will be together soon.

      Delete
  46. Does anyone know recently who interviewed in 2015 how long it takes to change the status from AP to Issued???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4-5 days... then the status shows Issued

      Delete
  47. Nov 2013 got Interview letter today, good luck everyone....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is your priority date?

      Delete
  48. Has anyone that called NVC and gotten interview date over the phone received interview letter?

    ReplyDelete
  49. Nov 2013 applicants had started receiving interview letters, soon Dec & Jan 2014 applicants will receive the IL...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My friend only last il received pd 8 nov 13 after not that more .. also maybe today is last day for il

      Delete
  50. Leaving this blog today, followed for 2 years, got interview letter today Nov 2013, bye Good Luck F2A applicants...

    ReplyDelete
  51. Called NVC today, they said they will give my interview date in the next two weeks, priority date Dec 2013

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When u get il please update here

      Delete
  52. Any update for F2B pls ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am F2B my PD is April 2008 and I have called NVC June 4 and they told me my interview date for July but I have not gotten the interview letter as yet.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for updating ! When exactly did you get welcome letter ? How long will take to finish all the process ? Thank you !

      Delete
    3. December 2, 2014 and my PD was current January 2015 my case was complete March 19, 2015.

      Delete
  53. OK guys! I understand just one important thing!!! YOU HAVE TO CALL THEM CALL ALL THE TIME!!! In my experience was that way- i called them and received the next step,called again and passed to another step. My mom was waiting for 7 months to get welcome letter. When i came to LA i called them and after 1 week she got the WL. And today morning happened the same. My friend's PD is September 30 and she hasn't received IL yet. she asked me to call and i called today morning and after 3 hours she GOT HER IL!!!!!! if you don;t call they think that you are not in a hurry and hold your case but when you disturb them they go through with your case first! People don;t waste your time call! And I will call to get IL for my husband. PD is february 14 2014. Case is completed. I will call as much as needed until getting the IL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is so true cause I have been calling I called on June 2 and was given my interview date on June 3 so guys just keep on calling.

      Delete
    2. @kristine thanks for your help. as you said i call NVC but no response so i email them. i got my interview letter within 15 minutes after emailing them.

      Delete
  54. my PD was Jan 2008 is current now. my category is F1. i have send all documents to NVC and i got reply from NVC last month on 12 August 2015 saying we got all documents required for processing of your case & also also said they will notify me when interview date is available. please let me know when will i get my interview letter.

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum


Comments posted above will only appear in this blog post. Comments posted below will appear across all blog posts:

comments powered by Disqus