Monday, July 20, 2015

Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories.

Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division within Department of State (DOS). Please see the important details below:

EB2 ROW: Demand for EB2 ROW continues to be significant, especially in the last 5 months. For example: Demand increased by 80% between February and March 2015 and more than 100% between February and April 2015. At this time, EB2 ROW category is estimated to remain current for this fiscal year (since it can use the unused visa numbers from EB4, EB5 and EB1 categories).

EB2 India: As mentioned in the earlier blog post, DOS has started moving dates forward in EB2 India starting from February 2015 Visa Bulletin.

However due to nearly double demand in EB2ROW category, the amount of expected spillover to EB2 India is negligible. Hence EB2 India is not expected to move forward in September visa bulletin.

However if demand decreases in EB2ROW, there is a possibility of EB2 India to move forward. In addition, porting continues from EB3 India to EB2 India category; which could further reduce  supply for EB2 India.

By law, EB2 India is limited to quota of around 2,802 visas per year + any spillovers from other EB/FB categories. Estimating demand early can be tricky, especially since demand continues to rise in EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB5 categories. Hence they are slowly moving dates forward instead of a big jump as they did in previous years.

EB3 India: EB3 India is expected to move forward by up to 2 weeks per month. The good news is that since many applicants are porting from EB3 India to EB2 India, the demand in EB3 India will decrease allowing it to move forward faster later.

EB2/EB3 China: Due to significant retrogression in April 2015 visa bulletin for EB3 China and forward movement in EB2 China, EB2 China is finally ahead of EB3 China.

The demand in EB2 China continues to be low,  even after it received large forward movement in the last few months. To make sure that all visas will be used up, EB3 China will received unused visa in EB2 China category.

Due to large number of upgrades/downgrades (when EB3 China was ahead of EB2 China) and DOS not having accurate estimate of these upgrades/downgrades, there is no clear visibility on these two categories at this time.

EB3 Philippines: Due to continuous heavy demand in this category, only small forward movement is possible. This may also apply to EB3 Philippines Others Workers category.
 
EB5 China: Demand from EB5 China applicants has increased significantly resulting in retrogression in May 2015 Visa Bulletin. DOS currently estimate forward movement till November 2013 in this category for the next visa bulletin.

The good news is that law allows spillovers across same categories. This means EB5 China can get visas from other EB5 countries. However this means spillovers to other EB categories (EB2, EB3) will decrease significantly.

There is also possibility of EB5 category using up all its available quota in the FY 2015.

Family Categories: According to DOS, demand in many family categories such as F1, F2A, F3 and F4 has not been "excessive" and hence these categories have continued to move forward.

All Categories: Due to executive action signed by US President Obama, DOS is likely to move dates earlier in the year, instead of waiting till the last quarter of fiscal year; since at that time they can get a more accurate view of demand across all categories and hence can more accurately calculate expected spillovers across EB/FB categories.

Tip: You can follow us at Facebook or Twitter to get notified about new blog posts. You can also sign up for automatic email notification for latest visa bulletin in the Locate Hidden Visa Bulletin tool page.

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

Quick Note For All Categories:

When dates move forward, it takes time for USCIS to process all application and then request a visa number from DOS. Hence there could be a big delay (4-8 months) from the time USCIS receives application to when DOS can estimate actual demand.

Also when applicants upgrade or downgrade application, they are counted twice. There is currently no way for DOS to identify these duplicates. Hence identifying the real demand can be very hard and may result in visas been wasted at the end of fiscal year.

Also See:

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54 comments:

  1. Why is EB3 Prediction on this article contradicts the September Visa Bulletin Prediction. Which is which? I'm just confused.

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  2. Charles Oppenheim doesn't care about the mess going on in FB category.

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  3. Why no news regarding F2B category??

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    Replies
    1. No news is good news my friend :)

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  4. My priority date is June 2011, I have been waiting for EAD for the past 7 years. When my date can be current.

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    Replies
    1. if your priority date is June 2011, how can you be waiting for 7 years :)

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  5. pd dec 17,2013 f2a nepal but still didnt got any inteview letter :(

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    Replies
    1. You need to call NVC starting tomorrow (the 25th) to see if they have scheduled it. If you don't call, you will get an email in about a week or two.

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    2. When nvc completed your case?

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  6. Plz update once you receive Interview Letter with PD

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  7. NVC started scheduling Interviews from 25th of this month.... Call NVC and find out your interview date

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  8. Guys call NVC today and get your Interview date, till Jan 2014 priority dates...

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  9. Guys call NVC today

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  10. i tried to call them but not reachable..

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  11. hello.. they takes a month for interview after they complete the case even pd is current .....need to know thanks

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    Replies
    1. I saw someone get their interview after like 2 weeks of case complete, but it was because their pd was current for a month or two months already. Normally it does take at least a month.

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  12. Hello Rick Thapa when did you complete your case at nvc

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  13. i called nvc and they said now its running of nobember 8th

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  14. PD jan 15 2014. I just got my IL sep 02 2015

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  15. Guys Just got Interview Letter
    Priority Date: 17-Jan-14
    Interview: 02-Sep-15

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  16. Big jump with F2A in next Bulletin

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  17. Feb 11, 2014 got Interview Letter

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    Replies
    1. R u in f2a cetegery or IR .please let us know bczz here is lot of people worried about IL . If you reply as soon as possible very appreciated also your ans help people hope to get IL. Thanks

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  18. 3 to 4 months movement is expected in next bulletin.....

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  19. Guys just got interview letter... Pd 11 February 2014.. Interview date 23 September ... Best of luck to all of you

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  20. Jan 28,2014 f2a, india.just called nvc received interview date for Sept 4 via phone.

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  21. permanent resident or citizenship who got interview date??

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  22. Yes guys answer Pd date february and january are you US citizen or Permanent Resident ??? It is important !!!

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  23. Hardik Patel can you explain please how the process goes ? My case still is at NVC. Pd is February 14 2014. Should they schedule am interview date and send it to US Embassy or they send it to US Embassy first and after that schedule an interview ? And how long does it take to transfer the case from NVC to the Embassy ? Thanks !

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    Replies
    1. They first schedule the appointment and then send it to the embassy. It takes about a month to get there.

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    2. When your case completed

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  24. Yesterday 31 July 2015 I got case complete email, Priority date 10 Jan 2014, can any one tell me how long it takes to receive Interview Letter, as i had seen most of the Jan applicants had received IL, can i expect interview date for Sep ?

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  25. case complete email received on 30 july,2015......mumbai consulate india....pd 19 nov 2013.....guys when i can expect to get IL ?

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  26. September 2015 vb will be 1feb 14 ...not bad

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  27. NVC schedule interview only at the last week of every month ? I got email on 31 July of case completion, Priority date is 10 Jan 2014 waiting for Interview Letter

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    Replies
    1. sometimes they schedule the first week of the month. Unfortunately, in order to get an interview, your case has to be completed at least 2 weeks before scheduling so you will probably get an interview letter for October.

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    2. Alejandra can you please tell me NVC stopped scheduling an appointments ???? My PD is February 14 2014. I called them on Monday and they told me that now december is getting interview letter. And it is impossible that other people of January are getting interview letters. Where is truth ????

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    3. U will get your il in October

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    4. That's what they tell you so you don't get impatient and call nonstop. The truth is that people with January PD's got interview since they will be current in September. They schedule a month ahead. I think they are done with scheduling, but I can't know for sure. But i am sure you will be current in the October visa bulletin, so you have to wait one more month. If NVC is still scheduling and you get an appointment, they will contact you through mail. So for now, all you can do is wait.

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    5. Thank you very much for your reply. I will keep calling. May be i cam get it sooner. So upset ((

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    6. Thank you very much for your reply. I will keep calling. May be i cam get it sooner. So upset ((

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  28. My means in October vb ..they start scheduled end of this month or first week of September. .good luck

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  29. dec17,2013...got iL via mail for sept 02

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    Replies
    1. When did you recieve interview letter ? Your country ?

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  30. Hi everyone
    my pd is February 25 for f2a and after being current I have sent my all of documents to NVC recently then they e mailed me saying that they are very busy and want to have 30 days to review my package to respond it with an interview date. Could you help me you guys about how long it will take us to have an interview date from now on? Thank you for all...

    ReplyDelete
  31. Hi everyone
    my pd is February 25 for f2a and after being current I have sent my all of documents to NVC recently then they e mailed me saying that they are very busy and want to have 30 days to review my package to respond it with an interview date. Could you help me you guys about how long it will take us to have an interview date from now on? Thank you for all...

    ReplyDelete
  32. what is the status of f4 category for india.... my file is kept in dec 2004... how long it will take

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