August 2015 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For August 2015 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/07/august-2015-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of August 2015 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1650 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Per the latest report, demand in EB2ROW has increased significantly. However, since it can get spillover from EB4/EB5 and EB1 categories, this category is expected to remain current for FY 2015.

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 2.5 months in this visa bulletin after moving 4 months in the last visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward around at a fast pace in the next few months.

EB2 India: As mentioned in earlier blog post, demand in EB2 ROW has increased significantly. This directly impacts the amount of spillover visa available to EB2 India category. Due to increase demand in EB2 ROW, the total supply has decreased significantly in this category. Because of this, this category again did not move forward in this visa bulletin;

In June visa bulletin, it had moved forward by 5.5  months in this visa bulletin. In addition, there are applicants in EB2 who have not yet filed their application as well as applicants who will be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

So if (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to increase  and (2) spillovers from other EB categories decrease (due to increasing demand in these categories), the demand in EB2 India category will increase dramatically.

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had another jump in this visa bulletin. It again moved forward by 3.5 months, after moving forward by 1.5 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance slowly for the next 1-2 months.

EB3 China: EB3 China retrogressed significantly by 7.5 years in this visa bulletin due to continuous increase demand in this category. In August 2014 visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.

EB3 China Other workers category also retrogressed by 2 years.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also moved forward by 3.5 months, after moving by 1.5 months in last visa bulletin.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 5 months. As mentioned in previous analysis: the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count/identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand. However since dates for EB2 India has started moving forward, as explained above, demand in EB3 India will decrease as porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases.

Due to reduce demand in EB3 India category, it had moved significantly in this visa bulletin.

EB3 Philippines: As mentioned in earlier blog post, demand continues to increase significantly in this category. However, DOS has decided to change dates from unavailable to June 2004.  Another  good news is that there is a possibility of another forward movement in September 2015 visa bulletin. This is possible because demand in EB2 Philippines is low; which could result in visas spillover to EB3 Philippines.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 0 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F1 Mexico did not move forward in this visa bulletin.

F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category.  F2A Mexico moved forward 6 months in this visa bulletin. All other countries moved forward by 5 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 0 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 1 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 3 weeks. Mexico category also moved forward by 0 week. Philippines moved forward by 0 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 5 weeks. Mexico category did not move forward. Philippines moved forward by 5 weeks.

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".


Also See:

• Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/05/latest-uscis-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

• June 2015 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/05/june-2015-visa-bulletin.html

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