Wednesday, August 14, 2013

September 2013 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For September 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/08/visa-bulletin-september-2013.html

For October 2013 Visa Bulletin Predictions, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/08/october-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html 

As many of you know FY 2013 ends on Sept 30. FY 2014 starts on Oct 1. Spillovers are typically applied in last quarter of FY. Because of this there can be large forward  movement and then retrogression between July and Oct VB. Date can swing wildly in either direction based on actual demand. USCIS does not publish real time data on actual demand by category/country.

The analysis below include Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin and I-485 pending inventory (with data as of 07/17/13).

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current atleast for next 6-8 months (if not more). Demand is increasing at rate of around 1000 every month. There is a small possibility of EB1 India retrogressing next year.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Surprisingly demand in EB2ROW is actually decreasing. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillovers in FY 2014 compared to FY 2013.

EB2 India: EB2 India moved forward by around 5 months. The dates moved forward by two more months than previously estimated due to (1) lower demand in EB1 category and (2) lower demand from EB2 ROW in the last two months.

The demand is EB2 India is expected to increase by few thousands as new applicants file I-485 and EB3 India applicants ports to EB2 India. Majority of these movements in EB2 India is due to 18,000 visas spillover from FB category in FY13. Movement in EB2 India in FY 2014 may not be that high if it does not receive enough spillovers.

EB2 China:EB2 China again did not move forward. Most of the EB spillovers was consumed by EB2 India. It seems that EB2 China has nearly used up its annual quota and EB spillovers. It should start moving forward in Oct VB.

EB3 ROW: The biggest forward movement was in EB3 ROW (and Mexico and China). This category moved forward by 18 months. USCIS and DOS did not receive the demand that they were expecting when they moved dates forward few months back. Hence to generate more demand they have moved it further by 18 months. Extra unused visas were allotted to EB3 India and EB3 Philippines.

Current backlog in EB3 ROW is less than 10,000. I was expecting it to be around 30,000. The difference of 20,000 explains the 18 months movement (at rate of 1000 every month).

Some of you have may have noticed that there was increase of around 1,8000 cases for 2003 year in EB3 ROW (in I485 pending inventory). This is very unusual and seems like USCIS just "discovered" these cases in the last two months. Similarly they also "discovered" another around 500 new applications for year 2006.

EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 18 months. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for next 4-6 months (unless demand is very high in EB3 category in which case EB3 China could start retrogressing).

EB3 Mexico: Similarly EB3 Mexico also moved forward by 18 months due to low demand.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: The second biggest movement was EB3 India. Dates moved forward by 8 months. This could  be due to (1) receiving spillovers from EB3 ROW (which has very low demand) and (b) reduction in demand due to people porting to EB2 India. Since quota resets from Oct 1, EB3 India will only have annual quota of 2802 visas (which means slower movements).

Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).

EB3 Philippines: This category moved forward by 5 weeks due to spillovers from EB3ROW. This is the biggest jump in a long time.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.

Family Categories:

F1 Philippines continues to move forward at very fast pace. It moved forward by 4 months.  It has moved about 3 years in the last seven months; moving an average of 18 weeks every month.

F2A Category: There has been a large amount of visas wasted in this category in FY2009, FY 2010 and FY 2012. To prevent this waste, DOS has made this category as "Current" in August VB. This will help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications (or CP cases). Since enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back and then continue to move forward slowly. Please see article for more details.

All other FB categories moved between 1 and 6 weeks.

Last month seven categories did not move at all (EB2 China, EB3 China, EB3 India, EB3 ROW, EB3 Mexico, F2B Philippines and F4 Mexico). This month only one category (EB2 China) did not move at all.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Overall 18,000 visas were wasted in FB category in FY 2012. To prevent these wastes, dates are moving much faster in FB and some EB categories.

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66%  - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

Also See:


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33 comments:

  1. so do you think EB3 ROW will show a big movement in FY2014?
    I heard that there are few people in 2011 at EB3 ROW.
    do you agree?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The demand from 2010 to 2012 is higher than from 2008 to 2010. So big movement may not be possible if USCIS receive a large volume of applications.

      Delete
    2. The US economy was still in slow recovery mode from 2010 to 2011 so I am surprised that the demand is higher than that of 2008 to 2010.

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    3. Where did you get the data that shows demand from 2010-2012 is higher than from 2008-2010?

      Delete
  2. My PD is August 27, 2012 and I am hoping that this time next year, I will be current. But then, it's so hard to predict movement from VB to VB. Can only pray and hope.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I am hoping that with in the next few month PD moves up to July 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Amazon,

    I need some help clarifying my understanding here.

    I have recently ported from EB3 to EB2 India. My priority date is Jan 24, 2008. I will be filing I-485 (for the first time happieee...) for me and my wife. I am working for my sponsor employer for 7 + years. My wife earned her MS degree here in US and is now on H4 status. Some where it says H4 is not eligible to file for EAD (I-765)? She is eager to begin her employment once she get her EAD. My question is: Is she eligible to apply for EAD as my dependent?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She is eligible to file EAD together with her 485 application. She should get it in 1-1.5 months.

      Delete
    2. Persons applying for a derivative permanent residency adjustment of status (AOS) are eligible for employment authorization (I-765) and advanced parole (I-131). EAD applications typically take 30-45 days to process and approve, and are guaranteed within 90 days. The actual AOS application (I-485) can take several months to process and approve. In other words, the EAD will be issued and one can start working months before receiving the permanent residency visa (green card).

      Delete
    3. As anonymous wrote above, she can file for EAD as your derivative. Typically it takes 2-3 months (some case can be faster or slower depending on various factors).

      This blog post would be helpful:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
  5. Thank you (Anonymous). This is encouraging. Wow 1 - 1.5 months is quick. I am counting 180 days (somewhere I read it said 180 days from filing your AOS).

    Any more confirmations on my questions/ affirmation to (Anonymous's) answer is appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. John, yes she is eligible to get EAD. My wife is also on H4 with pending I-485 and she got her EAD in just 38 days.

      Delete
    2. Thank you Anonymous for the affirmation.

      Delete
  6. Can we expect EB1 spillover to EB2I ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it already happened in Aug VB.

      Delete
  7. Hi Amazon,
    My PD is Feb 2012 EB3ROW. I don't understarnd why EB3ROW spillover(goes to other EB3 category) happened even though EB3ROW is not get current. Please comment.

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is because USCIS/DOS do not expect to receive enough EB3ROW applications before Sept 30 (when FY 2013 ends). Hence to prevent visas from been wasted, it is assigned to other EB3 categories (where they can be used).

      The same thing happened with EB2 ROW and EB2 India.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Amazon! This means Eb3 ROW will get current soon because uscis failed to advance eb3 ROW dates properly once backlog clears. What you think?

      Delete
    3. If USCIS receives too many EB3ROW application in the next 1-2 months, they might retrogress dates.

      Delete
  8. My PD is Oct 2010. I need three more months to go. Unfortunately, my project will end in December. Can anyone predict VB in Oct and Nov?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hey Anonymous, how much retrogression in the F2A category do you anticipate? Would it go back to late 2011 dates as it was in July or even further back?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. F2A category is likely to retrogress around Sept 2012 to Nov 2012 in Oct VB.

      Delete
  10. Hi! Amazon do you think EB-3 Philippines would be retrogress next couple a month? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If USCIS does not use all available spillovers, the number of pending cases would be higher than expected. So there is a possibility of category retrogressing.

      Delete
  11. Hi Amazon,
    My category is EB2 INDIA and priority date is June 20 2008, do you thin is there any chance it will move next month?.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014-part2.html#2

      Delete
  12. Hi Amazon,
    My priority date being Jan 17 2008, I will finally be able to file this month. I have sent the papers to the attorney and scheduled the Meds.
    My question is: Is it true that the attorney cannot send the application before Sep 1 and how many days after that do they have to file- whole of Sept' or Sept' 10 around which next bulletin comes out and presumabl dates reterogress?

    Thanks,
    Kushal

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Each visa bulletin applies to its calendar month, e.g. the September 2103 Visa Bulletin published this week applies to September 1, 2013 through September 30, 2013. An I-485 application based on the cut-off date in the September 2013 Visa Bulletin for your preference category and your priority date can be filed starting on September 1, 2013. The date the visa bulletins are published has no bearing, it is typically ~3 weeks in advance to allow time to prepare I-485 applications.

      Delete
    2. Thank you anonymous 2. If PD is current in September VB, you can only file the I-485 application between Sept 1 and 30.

      More details:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
  13. Hi! My PD is july 2012 EB3 Mexico, when would I be current!? ... In a year !?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  14. My PD ( eb3-row ) is April 2010 - and became current with Sept. bulletin. My I485/EAD/AP are already filed and recieved by USCIS. woo hoo.

    ReplyDelete

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