For October 2013 Visa Bulletin Predictions, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/08/october-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html
As many of you know FY 2013 ends on Sept 30. FY 2014 starts on Oct 1. Spillovers are typically applied in last quarter of FY. Because of this there can be large forward movement and then retrogression between July and Oct VB. Date can swing wildly in either direction based on actual demand. USCIS does not publish real time data on actual demand by category/country.
The analysis below include Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin and I-485 pending inventory (with data as of 07/17/13).
EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current atleast for next 6-8 months (if not more). Demand is increasing at rate of around 1000 every month. There is a small possibility of EB1 India retrogressing next year.
EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Surprisingly demand in EB2ROW is actually decreasing. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillovers in FY 2014 compared to FY 2013.
EB2 India: EB2 India moved forward by around 5 months. The dates moved forward by two more months than previously estimated due to (1) lower demand in EB1 category and (2) lower demand from EB2 ROW in the last two months.
The demand is EB2 India is expected to increase by few thousands as new applicants file I-485 and EB3 India applicants ports to EB2 India. Majority of these movements in EB2 India is due to 18,000 visas spillover from FB category in FY13. Movement in EB2 India in FY 2014 may not be that high if it does not receive enough spillovers.
EB2 China:EB2 China again did not move forward. Most of the EB spillovers was consumed by EB2 India. It seems that EB2 China has nearly used up its annual quota and EB spillovers. It should start moving forward in Oct VB.
EB3 ROW: The biggest forward movement was in EB3 ROW (and Mexico and China). This category moved forward by 18 months. USCIS and DOS did not receive the demand that they were expecting when they moved dates forward few months back. Hence to generate more demand they have moved it further by 18 months. Extra unused visas were allotted to EB3 India and EB3 Philippines.
Current backlog in EB3 ROW is less than 10,000. I was expecting it to be around 30,000. The difference of 20,000 explains the 18 months movement (at rate of 1000 every month).
Some of you have may have noticed that there was increase of around 1,8000 cases for 2003 year in EB3 ROW (in I485 pending inventory). This is very unusual and seems like USCIS just "discovered" these cases in the last two months. Similarly they also "discovered" another around 500 new applications for year 2006.
EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 18 months. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for next 4-6 months (unless demand is very high in EB3 category in which case EB3 China could start retrogressing).
EB3 Mexico: Similarly EB3 Mexico also moved forward by 18 months due to low demand.
Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.
EB3 India: The second biggest movement was EB3 India. Dates moved forward by 8 months. This could be due to (1) receiving spillovers from EB3 ROW (which has very low demand) and (b) reduction in demand due to people porting to EB2 India. Since quota resets from Oct 1, EB3 India will only have annual quota of 2802 visas (which means slower movements).
Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).
EB3 Philippines: This category moved forward by 5 weeks due to spillovers from EB3ROW. This is the biggest jump in a long time.
EB4: This category continues to remain current.
EB5: This category continues to remain current.
Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low. Hence EB2 category can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2014.
F1 Philippines continues to move forward at very fast pace. It moved forward by 4 months. It has moved about 3 years in the last seven months; moving an average of 18 weeks every month.
F2A Category: There has been a large amount of visas wasted in this category in FY2009, FY 2010 and FY 2012. To prevent this waste, DOS has made this category as "Current" in August VB. This will help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications (or CP cases). Since enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back and then continue to move forward slowly. Please see article for more details.
All other FB categories moved between 1 and 6 weeks.
Last month seven categories did not move at all (EB2 China, EB3 China, EB3 India, EB3 ROW, EB3 Mexico, F2B Philippines and F4 Mexico). This month only one category (EB2 China) did not move at all.
Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".
Overall 18,000 visas were wasted in FB category in FY 2012. To prevent these wastes, dates are moving much faster in FB and some EB categories.
Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66% - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.
- September 2013 Demand Data: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/08/september-2013-demand-data.html
- August 2013 Visa Bulletin And Analysis: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/07/visa-bulletin-august-2013.html
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