Wednesday, August 7, 2013

September 2013 Demand Data

It looks like Department of State (DOS) has again decided not to publish the September 2013 Demand Data. As most of you know, DOS also did not publish the August 2013 Demand Data.

Demand data is used by DOS to calculate the monthly visa bulletin dates. If you are not familiar with demand data, please see this article: What is Demand Data?

September demand data would be VERY important for all EB categories (which are currently  retrogressed).

September is the last month in FY 2013. All 158,000 (140,000 + 18,000 spillover from FB category) visas should be used up this month. Typically DOS moves dates forward in July/Aug VB and then slows down (or stops) forward movement in Sept VB; so that visas do not exceed the annual quota.

EB2 India: EB2 India finally moved forward in Aug VB. Expected spillovers to EB2 India is between 12,000 to 14,000 visas. So far we have confirmed report of PD of May 2008 receiving GC on Aug 6 (with reports of even June 2008 receiving approval). For those not familiar, EB2 India did not moved at all since last October. Please see article.

EB3 ROW: If EB2 India/China is not able to use up all spillovers, it will flow to EB3 categories.If that happens dates would start moving forward in EB3 categories (ROW, China and Mexico)

It looks likes EB2 China and EB3 India has already used up its annual quota and any expected spillovers. So any forward date movement in EB2 China and EB3 categories would depend on EB2 India spillover usage; which directly depends on this demand data.

Based on July 2013 demand data, EB2 India has a huge amount of preadjudicated cases. So it will be very easy to consume all of these spillovers (especially from people porting from EB3 India to EB2 India who have already filed I485 applications).

Tip: While you are waiting, you can use the Find Hidden Visa Bulletin to locate the September 2013 Visa Bulletin before it is released to general public. Based on logs, the tool is been used around 8,000 per day. Assuming 50 URLs scanned per search, that comes to hitting the government server around 400,000 times per day. No worries, based on the optimized algorithm, it would not put much load on the servers.

Update: It is around 22,000 as of Aug 12.


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39 comments:

  1. You mentioned that you have confirmed reports of May/June 2008 receiving GCs. Does this mean that the EB-2 India might move to May/June 2008 in the next bulletin? And, if not would it be advisable for those people to inform USCIS that the GC was received in error as PD was not current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was wonderful of Sabir to confirm (again) that he got the GC in hand. He is from EB2 India and PD is May 2008.

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/07/september-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html?showComment=1375828460314#c8950760476482050271

      Delete
    2. Just curious. How come one get a GC without the date being current unless USCIS error? I am in impression that if someone's date is current then only their case being approved and get the GC.

      Delete
    3. Probably the USCIS adjudicator did not see the dates when processing the applications. They could have done the same for other applications.

      Delete
  2. Dear Sir,
    I have the same question as above. Is there any expected movement till June in Sept bulletin. My PD is June 13th and fingers crossed .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would depend on amount of spillovers from other EB category and rate of porting from Aug 1.

      Delete
  3. Dear Sir,
    My PB is 9/17/2008 EB3 ROW do you think that there is a possibility that they will retrogress the current cut-off date to a date before 9/17/2008?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have you already filed your I-485? the EB3 ROW priority date is at Jan 2009 so I hope you have filed your I-485.

      Delete
    2. I have filed the I-485. I am just worried that the cut-off date will go back in time and that for this reason it will take a long time to get approved.

      Delete
    3. It would depend on the Sept demand data. Based on July demand data, there is less than 10% probability of retrogression in EB3 ROW for Sept VB. DOS did not release Aug 2013 demand data.

      Delete
    4. Hi Amazon,

      My priority date was Feb 2008 EB3ROW and I became current in the June bulletin. I filed for I-485 on June 3 and it got approved on Aug 3. Exactly 60 days from the date of filing. Think USCIS is definitely trying to move the cases along very fast or at least preadjudicate them sooner.

      Delete
    5. That is great news. Congrats Anonymous and thanks for sharing with us. :)

      Delete
    6. What is EB3ROW (ROW)? ROW ?? I am in EB3 india is this fall under ROW.

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    7. ROW = Rest of world. It includes all countries except India, china, Mexico and Philippines.

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  4. Does september demand data include new india eb2 filed after August 1st?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It should include all preadjudicated applications in EB2 India that were filed till May 2010.

      Delete
  5. Amazon you said expecting DD today is it based on some meeting with USCIS or based on historical data...Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Amazon did not say it would be released today :)

      Delete
    2. It is based on historical trends. If they do not release it by tomorrow, they might not release it at all.

      Delete
    3. Looks like the demand data has been released

      Delete
    4. They did not...

      Delete
    5. I thought this was the demand data, may be I was wrong

      http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2007-17-2013.pdf

      Delete
    6. It is actually I-485 inventory data. It is different from demand data. Here is FAQ for I-485 pending inventory

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/faq-eb-i-485-pending-inventory.html

      Delete
  6. What do you mean by the number 8000 ?? Please explain ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It means around 8,000 users are currently using the Find Hidden VB tool to try to find September VB.

      Delete
  7. Hi amazon
    Can you please help me to predicate when my pd is becoming current ? I'm on EB 3 ROW and my pd is on Nov 2009.
    Thank you :)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Amazon! My priority date is 3/24/2009. Any chance my PD could become current on the September bulletin?

    ReplyDelete
  9. I am EB3 ROW. Sorry, I forgot to mention that

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm sure you are having an amazing afternoon today!! Congratulation on becoming current. May this process end well for you.

      Delete
  10. Hi amazon. Do u think they will change the rules for the fb f1 categories? Will the pd come any faster?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Will i have to file a 601a waiver? I have been living in the u.s since july 2010. My pd is oct 1st 2010 f1. Thank u.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Amazon,
    my employer filed a GC for me under EB3 with a PD of april 2009 but i was transefered to a different job with the same company and the plan was to file another GC under EB2 since my duties have changed more than 50%. now my PD on the EB3 application is current and I don't know what are my options. it will be very difficult to transfer back to the old location to occupy the job that was advertized in the 1st application at this stage and the new application hasn't been filed yet.
    any feedback is greatly appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can try filing I485 when your PD is current with old application. If USCIS issues RFE, your company lawyer can help in responding back to them.

      Delete
  13. hi every one, im new member
    my priority date is 15 jan 2003(F3)
    the priority date for september is 22JAN03
    is that means my priority date will current automatic?
    or i will witting to the Visa Bulletin to mention my priority date anther month..

    god bless every one

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hello all.
    I am a LPR and I filed the I-130 for my husband. USCIS received it on Sept 4, 2013 and today, September 12 2013, we received the I-797C (notice of action) that the priority date is September 4, 2013.

    Can someone tell what that means for us? Since the priority date is presently current.

    Thanx

    ReplyDelete
  15. PD 12april 2997 cat f 4 x ad per IVC starting from 2006 till 2016 x also kindly let how much time days month or years x thanksgiving

    ReplyDelete
  16. PD 12april2007 vat f4,4085 days passed x is i485 approved and how.much more time I have to wait

    ReplyDelete

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