Thursday, August 15, 2013

Predictions: October 2013 Visa Bulletin

For July 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/july-2013-visa-bulletin.html

For August 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/07/visa-bulletin-august-2013.html

For September 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/08/visa-bulletin-september-2013.html

For October 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/visa-bulletin-october-2013.html

Please see below October 2013 Visa Bulletin Predictions (for both Family Based and Employment Based):

Quick Summary:
  • EB1, EB4, EB 5: Current
  • EB2 Rest Of World: Current
    EB2 China: 3 weeks (still behind EB3 China)
    EB2 India: It could either stay at 15JUN08 (to generate porting demand and apply future estimated spillovers) or retrogress to around 08APR05 (date based on July demand data).  Please see article
  • EB3 (ROW, China, Mexico): 0 day. Please see article.
    EB3 India: 0-2 weeks. There is 40% chance of retrogression.
    EB3 Philippines: 0-2 week. There is 40% chance of retrogression.
  • FB categories: 1 week to 4 months Please see article.
  • F2A: It is likely to retrogress to around May 2012 to Nov 2012.

Please Note: These numbers do not include the 18,000 additional unused visas from FB category to EB category. USCIS have to use them up by September 30. All annual quota will reset back on Oct 1. EB category will have 140,000 and FB category will have 226,000. October 2013 Visa Bulletin is valid from October 1.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
F1 15OCT06 15OCT06 15OCT06 15SEP93 22AUG01
F2A 01MAY12 - 08NOV12 (see notes below)
F2B 22MAR06 22MAR06 22MAR06 15MAR94 22FEB03
F3 15FEB03 15FEB03 15FEB03 22MAY93 08JAN93
F4 15AUG01 15AUG01 15AUG01 22OCT96 15MAR90

Employment Based: 

Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 01SEP08 08APR05-
15JUN08
C C
3rd 01JUL10 01JUL10 01OCT03 01JUL10 15DEC06
Other Workers 01JUL10 15JUN04 01OCT03 01JUL10 15DEC06
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th Targeted Employment Areas/Regional Centers and Pilot Programs C C C C C

October 2013 visa bulletin is start of new fiscal year 2014. All visa spillovers would be used by Sept 30 and quota would reset on Oct 1.

F2A Category: F2A category is also expected to retrogress in Oct VB. The actual retrogression date depends on two factors: (1) how many cases were received and processed by USCIS by Sept 30 (2) how many cases are pending with older PD. If there are lots of cases which have older PD still pending on Oct 1, F2A could retrogress further (Apr 2012 to July 2012).

EB2 India, EB3 India and EB3 Philippines: Movements in these categories depends on how many visas were consumed by Sept 30. If USCIS does not allot all spillovers by Sept 30, dates for these categories could retrogress in Oct VB (since there will be more cases pending than expected).

EB3 ROW/Mexico/China: There is a high probability that dates could retrogress in Nov/Dec VB. The actual cutoff date in Nov/Dec VB would depend on how many applications were received by Oct 10 (Nov VB would typically be released around Oct 10).

EB2 India movement depends on which of the three options Charles Oppenheim is comfortable with. If his estimates are not correct, EB2 India could become unavailable in 2014. Please see article

If you have not done it yet, please add your case to the GC trackerhttp://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker/

Every case would be helpful. Thank you :)

We will update this table as we get more numbers to crunch. If you are interested, the numbers above are based on following data:

Similar to EB3 category movement, we have added a blog post for EB2 category forward movement between August and October 2013. Please click here for FB category.

Recommended Reading:


More Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links -->

87 comments:

  1. Good news for EB3row- huge jump again, no retrogression and check out this statement from the visa bulletin

    "THIRD:

    The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is great news. The demand in EB3ROW is a much lower than everyone anticipated. Another good news is that EB3 ROW should not retrogress in October VB.

      Since USCIS is processing many I-485 application in 60 days, it would help many applicants who file I-485 next month.

      Delete
    2. Very true @Amazon. I'm eagerly anticipating being green!! Filed June 6. I was apprehensive it might retrogress and affect me

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    3. Oh man I missed it by a month. Do you think it will retrogress at some point during 2014 fiscal year?

      I'm pretty sure in October it will not move. It will stay just July 2010.

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    4. The added note to the VB is a bit ambivalent.
      It reads:
      "THIRD:
      The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

      It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits."

      How is that it goes from saying: "At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future." to a very opposite: "It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months."

      Am I reading this wrong - I'm understanding that they are saying demand is low and is not expected to increase in the near future.. so then why do they next say that it's unlikely to see forward movement for a couple of months? Please someone clarify.

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    5. To cover their bases- things can be unpredictable.

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    6. Anonymous - They are saying demand is low based on cutoff dates of Jan 2009. Once they move date to July 2010, demand is going to increase (a lot). This may require them to retrogress dates at some point.

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    7. Goks - did you get a chance to ask your FB friends to add their case to the tracker?

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  2. Thank you man, Just reached my PD in Feb 2010 for EB3Row wooooooo yeaaaaah yahoooooooooo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Awesome Anonymous. I am guessing you are super excited with 18 months movement :)

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    2. Hi Amazon!!! Can you please direct me to the link you've posted before related to documents one much collect and have ready for last step. I'm EB3 ROW - OCT2010. I rather start getting a bit ready..
      This VB that came out today was beyond the best case scenario I had envisioned.

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    3. Also, can one travel after submitting the i-485? Or is it not recommended? Or is it best to wait for the Advanced Parole? If GCs are arriving in 60 days or so how long is AP taking? is there a link for how i-485 process goes? Thanks.

      Delete
    4. Here is the link. It should answer all questions:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      There are more links on right side of this page which might be helpful to everyone.

      Delete
  3. My PD is April 3, 2012
    I am having some difficult in interpreting the statement below in quotes which is on the NVC bulletin. I have a few questions 1) Does this mean they will retrogress and have a new date in Oct or does it mean that the new date will essentially be Oct 2013 and then it won't be current moving forward after that 2) Does it mean as they state, that anyone whose case has been initiated by the NVC already before October will get an interview and their process won't stop or does it mean they will also get the visa if approved or just the interview.

    Thanks

    "Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. It is likely that the cutoff date for F2A category could retrogress to around Sept 2012 to Nov 2012.

      2. NVC will only set up interview if PD is current.

      Delete
  4. I'm so thrilled it moved so much in EB3. Congrats to all those that are current. I will be filing at the end of this week with the TSC does anyone know how long they are taking to process applications? We are filing through employment EB3 with priority date of October 20 2008. My daughter turned 21 & is out of status currently so is it possible for her to file i485 with us? She turned 21 on May 25th. What can we do to get her the GC together with the rest of the family?

    Thanks

    CandyGirl

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can only file I-485 when PD is current. If your PD became current in Sept VB, make sure USCIS does not receive I-485 application before Sept 1.

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      For CSPA, please see this:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/child-status-protection-act-cspa.html

      Delete
  5. I really hope that the F4 "rest of the world" Category does not retrogress after having a couple solid months of 1 month per month movement. My PD is sept 11, 2001. So close.

    A few months ago it was only moving 1 week per month or not movng at all. Next month it'll be at July 22 2001 and following the trend I should be current in November or earlier.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Amazon, I like the tracker on this site. It is beautiful, modern and very easy to use.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Anonymous. The goal is to have redundancy so that if one site goes down, there is still backup available.

      If anyone haven't done it so, please add your case to the tracker. It only takes few minutes plus you can easily check your case status on USCIS website with one click.

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

      Delete
  7. Questions:

    Is it true to say that based on the current 4 month processing time for I485 application, if you PD is still current, USCIS has to either approve, deny or issue an RFE?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. That is the average processing time. Some cases could take a lot longer. If you look at I-485 pending inventory, they still have some pending application with PD in 1997.

      Delete
  8. Hi

    My priority date is in Oct-2010 EB3 ROW. Will it be current in a couple of months?

    I have a question about my birth certificate. It has my old name. My current passport has my new name. In my current passport it is endorsed that my old name was so and so. Is this enough for I-485? My attorney says that this will be enough. I just want to re-confirm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In I485 form you can list all the names you had used earlier.

      Delete
  9. Amazon,
    My PD is 23 June 2008 EB2 I. I missed PD by 8 days. Do you think EB2I will move in October?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the same boat - Jun 25 2008 EB I

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    2. I'm 11 AUG 2008. What do you think guys?

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    3. Missed by 2 days
      PD June 17th 2008.
      Amazon - Would be great if you could help estimate what conditions the dates my move under. Thanks!

      Delete
    4. We will post it in few hours.

      Delete
  10. Amazon,
    My PD is July 8th 2008, had responded to birth cert RFE previously and since then waiting for PD to be current. We got our EADs. Will there be any chance to get GC in September or October this year?

    My understanding is PD is to allow new applications, so applications already in process could have a chance to be fulfilled sooner than later. Is this correct??

    Should I contact USCIS to check on adjudication status?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Which category and country was the application filed in? Is the PD current?

      Delete
  11. PD is june 30th 2008.When will it become current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  12. since F2a may retrogress, would you advice to still put in a application. Am in the US with H1, and my husband GC holder. Wondering if i should still take the risk. visa bulletin said it should not affect those that submits an application before October Bulletin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What happens if i put i submit a i-485 before the release of october bulletin. If the October bulletin retrogress, will my application be denied? For example, I have a PD date of August 24th,2013 and i submit an application to adjust status August 28th, 2013. If the bulletin retrogresses to for example, Jun 2011. Will they continue processing since it has been submitted already before the retrogression or does it gets stuck?

      Delete
    2. Yes, I would recommend submitting the application before Sept 30 (since F2A would be current till Sept 30).

      Please see this link. It should answer all questions:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
  13. My PD is sept 26 2008 EB2I. Any chance it could become current this year or early next year?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Do you think the EB3 philippines (with higher demand) many times you wrote that Philippines will therefore retrogress in the next publication? 41 days movement for us is great but fearful in the next...thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is not likely to retrogress in Oct VB. It depends on how many visas were actually allotted compared to spillovers received by each category.

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    2. that's informative to know...thanks and God bless and keep you! :)

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    3. If USCIS is not able to allot all spillovers to EB3 Philippines by Sept 30, then pending cases would be much more than expected. In that case it could retrogress. It depends on how fast USCIS process applications.

      Delete
  15. i got frustrated with the Green Card Calculator because they still based the estimation last June 2013 data. How was it? well in fact it's been 3 mos has passed July, August and September data. Though it's only estimator but the fact is they erroneously posted wrong information. hope they update the data. thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anonymous, it will be updated with August data in little while.

      Delete
    2. thank you amazon...

      Delete
  16. Hi Amazon,
    My PD is April 5 2013 for F2A category. MY I-130 petition got approved on July 31 2013. I reside in India and my husband is in USA and is LPR. Since the dates are Current for September in VB, can I expect NVC to set up an interview before October?? My husband had called NVC regarding my application, they replied that they haven't received my application and it takes 15-20 days for them to receive application from USCIS. what should I do now??

    Thanks in advance for your help.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Even if the f2a retrogresses i do hope your predictions come true since my pd is july 2012!

    ReplyDelete
  18. How did you come up with oct/ nov 2012 prediction? The last visa bulletin before being current is oct. 2011?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The source of raw data it listed above. The dates for all categories are based on estimation, analysis and number crunching.

      Delete
  19. My PD is july 21,2008 EB3 Phil.. when will be my P.D to become current?

    ReplyDelete
  20. My PD became current this visa bulletin. I am EB2 India. I had filed for AOS in Feb 2012. So I am hoping that my case is pre-adjudicated. I am bit confused as to when USCIS would physically mail my green card. Would I receive it immediately or will I have to wait until Sept 1,2013?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would depend on when the USCIS officer is able to process the application.

      Delete
  21. i just want to ask amazon,what if my noa2 approved this coming sept.im 7 months pregnant,what will i do,im giving birth on oct.please help me..what is the process im going to do,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You may want to talk to your lawyer.

      Delete
    2. ok thank u so much amazon

      Delete
  22. Tuesday's publishing of the September 2013 Visa Bulletin caught me by surprise. The prior ~15 month forward movement of EB3-ROW cut-off dates -- past the infamous July 2007 Visa Bulletin (fiasco) -- had me hopeful that my priority date would become current in FY2014. I also took the few day delay in the visa bulletin being published as a potentially positive sign. However, I did not expect that my priority date would be current when I looked at the visa bulletin on Tuesday afternoon! Immediately upon reading the visa bulletin I e-mailed my lawyer for confirmation as I did fully believe it (and I will only truly believe it when my I-485 adjustment of status has been filed and I have the receipt).

    After having been in the U.S. legally for the past 17 years, the prospect of finally being able to file an I-485 adjustment of status application for a permanent residency visa (green card) is also bittersweet. In fact, when I told my wife that my priority date was now current she began to cry, but not for joy -- but sadness for our son. My son turned 21 in early 2012, and with the extra months for my I-140 processing ‘aged-out’ last October -- 9 months ago! This was after living the U.S. as legal alien through grade school > high school > university earning his B.S. (biology) in May > and now in graduate school pursuing his M.S. (environmental science). Hopefully, immigration reform such as a STEM visa, will allow him to get his permanent residency after being simply tossed out of the line.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Generally EB3 porting to EB2 cause retrogress. As EB3 India also moved by 9 months to September 2003 in September bulletin; I don’t think EB2 will retrogress at all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The people from EB3 India with PD between October 2003 and June 2008 can still port to EB2 India; thus EB2 India demand would be a lot higher.

      Delete
  24. Check in GC calculator!!

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Amazon why no movement in Oct VB for eb3?
    Thank you in advance .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Adding to the above question, uscis has predicted this in sept 2013 VB.

      "
      THIRD:

      The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.
      "

      Delete
    2. Thank you anonymous 2. In addition, EB3 ROW could retrogress in Nov/Dec VB. I have updated the blog post above.

      Delete
  26. My PD is Jun 18 2008 in EB2 category. Missed it by 4 days. Any chance that the October bulletin vud move forward at least by a week so that I will be greened?

    Thanks
    KiKu

    ReplyDelete
  27. The prediction is confusing.visa bulletin for October 2013 should be released by next week.how can the determinant factor to how far it retrogress be how many application is processed by Sept.30.how will they know how many application they will processed by Sept 30 by next week ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will be an approximate estimate. Example: If USCIS can process 100 applications in 7 days, it can process approx 300-400 in one month.

      Since each case can be different, the time to process each application could vary. It also depends on the USCIS officer (how fast/efficient they are, total RFE issued, which cases they are processing (old PD or new PD), etc).

      Delete
  28. And that how many application with older pd by Oct.1.I am referring to f2a category.

    ReplyDelete
  29. hi .my pd was sept2008 for f1 .i whould like to know when it can be current .and why f1 is moving so slowly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  30. i recieved my choice of agent, under f2a what will i recieved next and how many days do i recived the next document

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will be writing a blog post about this. They are changing two forms from paper based to web based.

      The U.S. Department of State (DOS) announced that, as of September 3, 2013, two immigrant visa (IV) forms have been replaced by online "paperless" versions.

      The Application for Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration (DS-230) and the Choice of Agent form (DS-3023) have been replaced by their respective electronic counterparts, the DS-260 and the DS-261.

      Delete
    2. what this mean,it will longer to longer to recieved the next document or it will shorten,what next document will i recieved next

      Delete
  31. Bad News... VB Update for EB2 India dates retrogressed to 2006.
    I have been waiting for Green Card last 7 years. God bless America.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. where did you hear this??

      Delete
  32. Where did you get this information from? VB is not yet out

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi Amazon, my pd is mar 18 2013 f2a category. and on this month visa bulletin show pd date from may 2012 to 7 nov 2012. can u pls tell me how long I will wait more. pls reply.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi anonymous, we are still waiting for official visa bulletin. It will be posted here:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/visa-bulletin-october-2013.html

      Delete
  34. Amazon,

    Can you please provide insight on why EB2 I could go back to Apr 8,05 vs something earlier than that date or something later ? How do you forecast Apr 8, 05 ?

    BTW I'm March 05 EB2I(converted) and still hve not gotten my GC, unfortunately and really really worried that I might miss this September window and it will become uncertain all over again starting October 2013. Any thoughts or ray of hope for me ?

    ReplyDelete
  35. hi Amazon,
    Please help!My common law partner was sponsored by his US citizen mother.His priority date is March 2007 F1 catogery.We have two kids below 21.They are listed in the petition as dependents.Do you think my partner and i should get married at this stage or should my partner wait to tell the immigration officer at his visa interview that he wanted to get married.My mother in law said he should wait and make this request at his visa interview.What do you think?Advise please
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is this for same sex partner marriage? If yes, USCIS have lots of resources:

      1. U.S. Visas for Same-Sex Spouse: http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/frvi_6036.html

      2. Diversity Visa Program: http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1322.html

      3. USCIS FAQ: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7 543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2543215c310af310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel= 2543215c310af310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

      4. State Department Visa Policy Cable On DOMA Guidance For Visa Posts Worldwide: http://travel.state.gov/pdf/Next_Steps_On_DOMA_Guidance_For_Posts_August_2013.pdf

      Delete
    2. hi Amazon,
      This is NOT for same sex partner marriage.
      waiting for your advise.
      Thanks.

      Delete
    3. That link was helpful.Thankyou Amazon

      Delete
  36. Hi Amazon, when do you think that can be available the November VB? on the DS web page

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi Amazon, do you think that the F1 to Mexico can advance more than a Week by Nov? as oct the advance was 2 weeks?

    thanks for your answer

    ReplyDelete
  38. hi my priority date is 5 dec 2011 done with all documentations and received interview instructions from nvc but didnot get any date for the interview i applied for my hubby so worried how long it will take kindly reply....

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum