Friday, June 12, 2015

July 2015 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For July 2015 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/06/july-2015-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of July 2015 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1650 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Per the latest report, demand in EB2ROW has increased significantly. However, since it can get spillover from EB4/EB5 and EB1 categories, this category is expected to remain current for FY 2015.

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 4 months in this visa bulletin after moving 12 months in the last visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward around at a fast pace in the next few months.

EB2 India: As mentioned in earlier blog post, demand in EB2 ROW has increased significantly. This directly impacts the amount of spillover visa available to EB2 India category. Due to increase demand in EB2 ROW, the total supply has decreased significantly in this category. Because of this, this category did not move forward in this visa bulletin;

In previous visa bulletin, it had moved forward by 5.5  months in this visa bulletin. In addition, there are applicants in EB2 who have not yet filed their application as well as applicants who will be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

So if (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to increase  and (2) spillovers from other EB categories decrease (due to increasing demand in these categories), the demand in EB2 India category will increase dramatically. EB2 India is currently expected to reach around 2009 dates in the next few months (for fiscal year 2015).

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had another jump in this visa bulletin. It again moved forward by 1.5 months, after moving forward by 1.5 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance slowly for the next 1-2 months.

EB3 China: EB3 China did not move forward in this visa bulletin. In previous visa bulletin, it moved forward by 4 months.  In August 2014 visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.

EB3 China Other workers category also did not move forward.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also moved forward by 1.5 months, after moving by 1.5 months in last visa bulletin.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 1 week. Due to high demand, this category is expected to move forward by 1-2 week in the next visa bulletin. The good news is that many applicants would be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

Hence the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count/identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand. However since dates for EB2 India has started moving forward, as explained above, demand in EB3 India will decrease as porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases.

EB3 Philippines: As mentioned in earlier blog post, demand continues to increase significantly in this category. This has resulted in all quota been used up; resulting in this category becoming unavailable. The good news is that there is a possibility of forward movement in September 2015 visa bulletin. This is possible because demand in EB2 Philippines is low; which could result in visas spillover to EB3 Philippines.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory. Hence EB2 category (especially EB2 India) can expect a bigger spillover in FY 2015. This is one of the main reasons for rapid forward movement in EB2 India (for those who are not aware, the base quota for EB2 India is around 2,802 visas).

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 2 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F1 Mexico did not move forward in this visa bulletin.

F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category.  F2A Mexico moved forward 5 months in this visa bulletin. All other countries moved forward by 5 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 0 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 2 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 3 weeks. Mexico category also moved forward by 1 week. Philippines moved forward by 1 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 6 weeks. Mexico category did not move forward. Philippines moved forward by 4 weeks.

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".


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