Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Analysis: Visa Bulletin August 2013

For August 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current this fiscal year.

EB4: This category also continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current. Since demand is 75% higher than last fiscal year (according to Charles Oppenheim), there is a possibility of retrogression in FY 2014.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Charles Oppenheim had mentioned possibility of EB2 ROW retrogressing in Summer. However due to spillovers from EB and FB category, this category continues to remain Current. However, due to retrogression in EB2 ROW last year and increase demand, it would be consuming more visas than it did last fiscal year.

EB2 India: As expected there was a huge jump (over three years) in EB2 India to 01JAN08. This was due entirely to spillovers from other EB categories. FB spillover was tiny at 361 visas. There is a very high probability that dates could move to  Feb-Apr 2008 in Sept VB. Please see article for more details about EB2 India movement in FY 2014.

The demand is EB2 India is expected to increase by few thousands as new EB2 applicants file I-485/CP and EB3 India applicants ports to EB2 India.

EB2 China: Surprisingly EB2 China did not move at all. Most of the EB spillovers was consumed by EB2 India. It is likely that EB2 China has nearly used up its annual quota of visas. Hence it could move forward by 1-3 weeks in Sept VB.

EB3 ROW:  As expected EB3 ROW did not move at all. USCIS have already received enough application to fill the annual EB3 ROW quota. Since it takes a while for USCIS and DOS to gauge the real demand (long processing time, people filing it later, etc), DOS would likely not move dates forward for next few visa bulletins. There is a small probability that date could either retrogress or move forward slightly in September VB. It is very likely to start moving in Nov VB.  Please see this article for more details.

EB3 China: EB3 China also did not move forward.  It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for remainder of FY 2013.

EB3 Mexico: As expected, EB3 Mexico also did  not move at all.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India (similar to EB3 China) did not move forward at all. It seems that EB3 India has used up its annual quota and people porting from EB3 India to EB2 India has leveled. EB3 India is likely to move 1-3 weeks in Sept VB to make sure all visas are consumed in FY 2013 (including any spillovers from EB2 categories).

Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).

EB3 Philippines: This category got the second biggest movement of 3 weeks (after moving just one week for long time). It is expected to move by 2 weeks in Sept VB to use up its annual quota.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Family Categories:

The following two categories did not move at all: F2B Philippines and F4 Mexico.

F1 Philippines continues to move forward at very fast pace (6 months movement). It has moved about 3 years in the last seven months; moving an average of 18 weeks every month. It is likely to move forward 5+ months in September VB.

F2A Category: There has been a large amount of visas wasted in this category in FY2009, FY 2010 and FY 2012. To prevent this waste, DOS has finally made this category as "Current". This will help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications (or CP cases). It is likely to remain current till Oct VB. Once enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back and then continue to move forward slowly. Please see article for more details.

F1 ROW/China/India, F2B Mexico: Each of these moved forward by 3 months.

All other FB categories moved between 1 and 9 weeks.

Overall 18,000 visas were wasted in FB category in FY 2012. To prevent these wastes, dates are moving much faster in FB and some EB categories.

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66%  - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

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  1. Just out of curiosity Amazon. If EB3 ROW do retrogress, do you foresee the dates retrogressing back to February 2008 by any chance? It is currently sitting pretty on Jan 2009, my PD is EB3 Feb 2008. Just wanted to get an idea so I can expect the GC accordingly, since if the dates don't move, I'll continue to stay current for the next few months which could get me the GC soon. Thanks and as always, great job on putting this blog together.

    1. We will have to wait for latest I-485 pending inventory to estimate real demand and can use to calculate future VB movement.

  2. Hi Amazon -

    Great analysis, you are providing a very valuable service here.

    I would like your thoughts on this: My spouse got her GC last May and I had applied with her as a derivative. Unfortunately our applications got separated and due to the retrogression my 485 went back to Initial Review. Our PD was March 2008. Do I wait for Sep bulletin to check on the status, or go ahead and apply using F2A which is current?

    1. You can have both EB and FB application pending at the same time.

  3. My priority date is JUN152000. Is it current now?

    1. Please see the August VB in link below:

  4. Hello Amazon..
    My date 08june01 for F4 is current now..
    I have already sent DS 230 and affidavit of support..
    Consulate sent their acknowledgement..
    Now that my date is current please advise me what course of actions should I adopt now.

  5. My priority date is jan 22, 2007, EB 3 , other workers, philippines.. Any comment on when can it become current?

  6. My PD will be current in October 2009, can anyone predict for the next couple months, how far it will go?


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