September 2015 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For September 2015 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/08/september-2015-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of September 2015 Visa Bulletin:

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1050 every month (per the latest pending inventory released few days ago).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Per the latest report, demand in EB2ROW has increased significantly (11,000+ for year 2014 alone). However, since it can get spillover from EB4/EB5 and EB1 categories, this category is expected to remain current for FY 2016.

EB2 China: EB2 China had a large retrogression in this visa bulletin. It retrogressed by nearly 8 years in this visa bulletin after moving 2.5 months in the last visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.

EB2 India: As mentioned in earlier blog post, demand in EB2 ROW has increased significantly. This directly impacts the amount of spillover visa available to EB2 India category. Due to increase demand in EB2 ROW, the total supply has decreased significantly in this category. Because of this, this, DOS had to retrogress EB2 India by nearly 3 years.

In addition, there are applicants in EB2 who have not yet filed their application as well as applicants who will be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

So if (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to increase  and (2) spillovers from other EB categories decrease (due to increasing demand in these categories), the demand in EB2 India category will increase dramatically.

EB2 India is expected to start moving forward from October 2015 visa bulletin.

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW had another jump in this visa bulletin. It again moved forward by 1 month, after moving forward by 3.5 months in the last visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance slowly for the next 1-2 months.

EB3 China: EB3 China had a big forward movement of around 6.5 months in this visa bulletin after retrogressing significantly by 7.5 years in last visa bulletin. In August 2014 visa bulletin, it had the biggest jump and moved forward by more than 2 years.

EB3 China Other workers category did not move forward.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also moved forward by 1 month, after moving by 3.5 months in last visa bulletin.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category had another large forward movement. It moved forward by around 6.5 months after moving forward by 5 months in the previous visa bulletin.

As mentioned in previous analysis: the demand in EB3 India will decrease which will result in dates moving forward at faster speed. Currently USCIS cannot count/identify porters to EB2 and hence they are calculated twice resulting in increase demand. However since dates for EB2 India had started moving forward in the earlier visa bulletin, as explained above, demand in EB3 India will decrease as porting from EB3 India to EB2 India increases.

EB3 Philippines: Due to lower demand in both EB2 and EB3 Philippines, this category had a large forward movement. EB3 Philippines moved forward by around 6.5 months. This category is expected to move forward in the next visa bulletin.

As mentioned in previous analysis: This is possible because demand in EB2 Philippines is low; which could result in visas spillover to EB3 Philippines.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 29 weeks. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 6 weeks. F1 Mexico did not move forward in this visa bulletin.

F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category.  F2A Mexico moved forward 4 months in this visa bulletin. All other countries moved forward by 10 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 5 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 13 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 14 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 4 weeks. Mexico category also moved forward by 4 week. Philippines moved forward by 3 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 6 weeks. Mexico category also moved forward by 2 week. Philippines moved forward by 6 weeks.

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".


Also See:

• Latest USCIS Visa Bulletin Predictions: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/07/latest-uscis-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

• August 2015 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/07/august-2015-visa-bulletin.html

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