Monday, October 12, 2015

November 2015 Visa Bulletin Analysis

For November 2015 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2015/10/november-2015-visa-bulletin.html

Please see below analysis of November 2015 Visa Bulletin:

Starting from October 2015 visa bulletin, DOS has decided to break its visa bulletin into two categories. The first category is "final action date" which is same as the previous visa bulletin. Dates in this category is when USCIS will start approving I-485 application.

The second category is "dates for filing visa application". The dates in this category is when applicants can start filing their I-485 application. This will be useful since applicant can file EAD application and after 180 days can change employer even if PD is not current.

EB1: All EB1 categories are current and should continue to remain current for fiscal year. Demand continues to be around 1050 every month (per the latest pending inventory).

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Per the latest report, demand in EB2ROW has increased significantly (11,000+ for year 2014 alone). However, since it can get spillover from EB4, EB5 and EB1 categories, this category is expected to remain current for FY 2016.

EB2 China: EB2 China had a relatively small one month forward movement. In previous bulletin,  it moved forward by 6 years after retrogressing by nearly 8 years in earlier visa bulletin. It is likely to continue to move forward in the next few months.

EB2 India: EB2 India had a big jump in this visa bulletin. It moved forward by 15 months after  retrogressing by 7 months in previous visa bulletin. Currently EB2 India has demand from two categories: there are applicants in EB2 who have not yet filed their application as well as applicants who will be porting from EB3 India to EB2 India.

So if (1) porting from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to increase  and (2) spillovers from other EB categories decrease (due to increasing demand in these categories), the demand in EB2 India category will increase dramatically.

Also please see this blog post for updates in EB2 (India, ROW and China) category.

EB3 ROW: EB3 ROW did not move forward in this visa bulletin. This category is expected to advance slowly for the next 1-2 months.

EB3 China: EB3 China had a modest 2.5 months forward movement. This category has a large forward movement of around 7 years in previous visa bulletin after retrogressing significantly by 7.5 years in August 2015 visa bulletin.

EB3 China Other workers category moved forward by 3 months.

EB3 Mexico: Similar to EB3 ROW category, EB3 Mexico category also did not move forward in this visas bulletin.

Dates for EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: EB3 India category moved forward by 3 weeks. In the previous bulletin,  it moved back by around 9.5 months after moving forward by 6.5 months in the earlier visa bulletin.

EB3 Philippines: Due to lower demand in both EB2 and EB3 Philippines, this category had another large forward movement. EB3 Philippines moved forward by 5.5 months, after moving forward by around 2 years in previous bulletin. This category is expected to move forward in the next visa bulletin.

As mentioned in previous analysis: This is possible because demand in EB2 Philippines is low; which could result in visas spillover to EB3 Philippines.

Please see this blog post for future updates in EB3 categories.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB5: This category continues to remain current.

Demand in EB4 and EB5 is currently very low per the latest I-485 pending inventory.

Family Categories:

F1 Category: F1 Philippines category moved forward by 12 months. F1 ROW/China and India moved forward by 5 weeks. F1 Mexico moved forward by 1 week in this visa bulletin.

F2A Category: As expected, there was another forward movement in this category.  F2A Mexico moved forward 4 months in this visa bulletin. All other countries moved forward by 4 weeks. Please see article for more details for FB categories.

F2B Category: F2B ROW, China and India moved forward by 3 weeks. F2B Mexico moved forward by 3 weeks and F2B Philippines categories moved forward by 4 weeks.

F3 Category: F3 ROW, China and India moved forward by 3 weeks. Mexico category also moved forward by 1 week. Philippines moved forward by 1 week.

F4 Category: F4 ROW, China and India also moved forward by 3 weeks. Mexico category also moved forward by 1 week. Philippines moved forward by 4 weeks.

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

If your application has been sent to NVC, please see this blog post.

Tip: Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".


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