Thursday, February 14, 2013

EB2 India: Analysis And Prediction

EB2 India is taking a big hit in visa availability. Checkout the visa bulletin dates for EB2 India from May 2012 to March 2013 below:

May 2012: 15 AUG 2007
June 2012 - Sep 2012: Unavailable
Oct 2012- Mar 2013: 01 SEPT 2004
Apr 2013 - Jun 2013: 01 SEPT 2004 (as predicted by USCIS)
July 2013: 01 SEPT 2004
August 2013: 01 JAN 2008 (most likely)

In the last 9 months, the date has only moved 2 weeks. USCIS has further predicted that the dates may not move at all till June 2013 VB or it may even retrogress further.

What is causing this? The main reason is the supply of visa numbers are fixed by congress to 2800 per country per year in EB2 category. This comes out to 2800/12 =  233 visas per month for EB2 India.

Though the supply of visa numbers is fixed, the demand is not. Due to EB3 to EB2 porting (where people in EB3 category can "upgrade" to EB2), there continues to be high demand for EB2 visas.

Based on the math above, if more than 233 people are upgrading from EB3 to EB2 category every month, the dates for EB2 will not move at all. If demand is much higher than 233 per month, than the dates will retrogress further.

The only thing preventing dates from retrogressing is if it gets spillovers from other categories. DOS has predicted a spillover of 13,000 visas for fiscal year 2013 for EB2 India + China. Since the dates for EB2 china has already reached 2008, most (if not all) of the visa spillovers should go to EB2 India.

Based on EB I-485 pending statistics, there are over 20,000 pending application in EB3 till Sept 2004 and about 700 pending application in EB2 till Sept 2004. This means there is a high chance that dates will move forward for EB2 India between July 2013 and September 2013 visa bulletins.

One of the "advantages" of holding the dates at Sept 2004 for next few months for EB2 India is preadjudication. This means that for most EB2 people who had already submitted their I485 application, USCIS would be working on their application and preadjudicating them. This means their I485 application would be approved and is simply waiting for a visa number to be available. So whenever the dates move forward from Sept 2004, these people with preadjudicated cases will be in front of the line.

After the dates move forward and new people who start applying (including those who upgrade from EB3) will be in the "back" of the line - since the processing time for EB I-485 application is currently 4+ months.

Per the latest update, there is less demand for EB5 China. This means more visas will flow to EB2.

If you are not familiar with spillovers, it means visas unused in other categories will flow "upwards" as follows:
EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 -- > EB2 --> EB2 (India + China) --> EB3

However, EB2 India and China will use up all possible spillovers, so there wont be any spillovers to EB3 category. This is one of the reason many in EB3 are waiting for over 10 years and are eager to upgrade from EB3 to EB2 (from all countries - not just India).

Also if you compare the February 2013 demand data to March 2013 demand data, you will notice that the demand has actually increased from 275 to 300 for PD (priority date) prior to Jan 2005; instead of demand decreasing from 275 to 42 (275-233=42). This means in the last one month, there was demand of 300-42=258 visa numbers in EB2 category till Jan 2005. This numbers keeps increasing for later PD (Jan 2006, Jan 2007, etc). The higher the demand in this table, the less number of visas available to move dates forward - since there is only 233 visas available each month for EB2 India category.

We recommend checking the demand data and I-485 pending inventory every month to get an idea of current demand and hence how much visa would be available. This would give a general idea of how further the dates will move forward each month.

Also there are many immigration bills introduced in congress this year to fix these issues. You can view a list of them here: http://topimmigrationnews.blogspot.com/2013/02/collection-of-latest-immigration-bills.html 


Update (Feb 20, 2013):

Please see this article: EB Category To Receive 18,000 Additional Visas

Update (May 4, 2013):

Did USCIS recently discovered 20,000 more EB2 India cases?

Update (June 3, 2013):

We are holding two contest with prizes on who can guess how far dates for EB2 India would move in July and August 2013 VB.  Please see the link below:

http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum/default.aspx?g=topics&f=21

Update (June 6, 2013):

According to Charles Oppenheim, EB2 India could move to Feb 2008 in FY 2013.

Update (June 16, 2013):

EB2 India Visa Bulletin Movement from August 2013 to December 2013

33 comments:

  1. Thanks for taking time to explain clearly about the complex terms. Truly appreciate that.

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  2. I really appreciate your time & effort in explaining the process.

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  3. Awesome!!! thank you explaining it so well.

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  4. thanks for the well written article :)

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  5. patience only works

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  6. Thank you so much

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  7. Thanks a lot for taking the time to explain the process.

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  8. I still don't understand where all the spill over is going? Till now in this fiscal year there are no visas allocated for EB2I...Thank god if they give all the spill over atleast in the coming Visa bulletisn (June,July) but what if not?..And the most frustrating part We do not have clear picture about whats going on...Its not rocket scinece DOS has all the data..Why don't DOS publish for Given Fiscal How many visas issued, How many visas available, How many available before anybody's Proirity date..so that we don't have to check online forums and ask all experts about the predictions etc..

    Think about it..

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  9. I still DO NOT understand where the spill over is going..Nothing moved in this fiscal year so far for EB2 INDIA..Iam expecting that the EB2I atleast moves to March 2008 end of this FY..if not there is something terribly wrong..I still dont understand why DOS publish the data that How many green cards issued and How many are pending before a specific Priority date and How many available before specific Priority date..
    They simply publish the Demand data which is not useful at all..
    People like us simply wait every month to become their dates current..but nobody knows whats going on..coz according to the statistics and calculations the dates would have moved to 2008 easily..
    Hope they move in coming bulletins...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The EB spillovers are typically applied in last quarter of fiscal year (July to Sept). Hence the dates have not moved from Oct to May 2013 (since the people porting from EB3 India to Eb2 India are using up ALL available quota in EB2 India).

      Delete
    2. Thanks..Hopes on another 2 bulletins..MIne is DEC 2007 EB2..

      Delete
  10. I do not understand how the EB2I PD dates have not moved. Since Oct-2012, the PD have been at SEPT-1-2004. So that is 7 months now, which means 1,631 GCs should have been given. When we saw the Demand Data in Oct-2012, there were not 1,631 pending... very confusing! Hope the Dates move very soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. People porting from EB3 to EB2 India are using up the available quota.

      Demand data ONLY includes preadjudicated cases (cases approved by USCIS but visa number is not available) and some consular processing cases.

      If visa is available to porters, then they are immediately assign to them. These will not show up in the demand data document (since visa number was available to them).

      Delete
  11. I have been reading your blog and found that we are getting spill over from FB category that is 18000 and from other EB to EB2 around 13000.

    As EB2 china is already ahead most of the spill overs may be allocated to EB2 India. Can you please analyze adding both spill overs FB+EB and come up what would the be priority date.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, we will be adding a new article on how far EB2 India and other categories would go based on EB and FB spillovers.

      Delete
  12. What an extremely well written article. Straight to the point and language that a 10th grader would understand. Thank you for providing this actually comforting report :)

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  13. Awesome Explanation...

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  14. thank you very much Sir

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  15. Hi,

    I have a priority Date of Nov-2007 in EB2I. Do you think my PD will become current with recent DD data that is out?
    Thanks in advance for your reply.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Due to EB/FB spillovers, EB2 India is likely to reach that date in next few visa bulletins.

      Delete
  16. You are doing great job! I am sure lot of people get good information through this.
    PD Nov. 2010 EB2 category, India. What will be the expected time to get PD current?
    Thanks so much,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are many factors which affects visa bulletin movement. Currently the porting from EB3 India to EB2 is consuming the annual quota for EB2 India. The only way EB2 India can move is due to spillovers from EB and FB categories.

      Since demand changes every month in all categories (EB and FB), it directly affects the amount of spillover available. Hence we cannot estimate the movement that far.

      Delete
  17. USCIS wants to make money through EAD & AP. All this hold until end of last quarter of 2013 is to create uncertainity so that individuals applying for EB485 will file for EAD & AP. I am sure that come July 2013 USCIS will inform that processing time for I485 is more than 6 months owing to the high volume of I485 applications. My heart goes out to those from Eb2I who have been waiting for PD to move but have been laid off.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hello,

    I have a priority Date of Aug 20-2008 in EB2 India. Do you think my PD will become current with recent DD data that is out?
    Thanks in advance for your reply

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is too early to estimate when that PD could be current due to (a) people porting from EB3 to EB2 (b) demand in other EB categories which will affect spillovers to EB2 India.

      We should have more details in few weeks.

      Delete
  19. EB2I - PD of Feb 2006, you think next bulletin will make me current?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is possible. We are waiting for updated data from USCIS to estimate current demand.

      Delete
  20. Hopefully u will update the blog after demand data is released. My PD is April 2008. Will I b able to get :)

    ReplyDelete
  21. Firstly, thanks for the clear explanation of the process. One question i have though is, how come the EB3 dates have advanced in the recent few visa bulletins while the EB2 dates have not. As per the spillover rule shouldn't EB2 dates advance first before EB3 dates advance?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EB spillover to EB2 India is typically applied from July to September. Hence we will have to wait for EB spillover to be applied.

      other reason for EB3 India forward movement is people who are porting to EB2 India. Since the "line" is cleared in EB3 India, dates can move forward.

      Also checkout this article:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/eb3-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

      Delete
  22. I really appreciate your time & effort in explaining the process

    ReplyDelete
  23. Sant Ritz's charming address offers a world of opportunities for your little ones in the future.the interlace

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hi, Any prediction on when EB2 will start progressing ? My PD is Nov 2008 EB2 India. Any luck this year ?

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

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3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum