Update (6/16/13): This blog post has been updated. Please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html
Update (6/6/13): According to Charles Oppenheim, dates for EB2 India could move as far as Feb 2008 in next few visa bulletins:
You can join us in discussion here: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum/default.aspx?g=posts&t=9#post16
This is opposite of what two law firms said when they met with Charles Oppenheim last month. Please see below.
Original Post (5/15/13):
Two law firms are reporting that they met with Charles Oppenheim in April/May and he said that EB2 India would only move by few weeks this fiscal year. We are not sure if this estimate is accurate.
1. Ware/Gasparian: http://david-ware.com/immigration-information/breaking-news/june-visa-bulletin-shows-significant-advances-0
2. Ron Gotcher (see page 1 and 2): http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/120585-eb-2-india-any-chances-of-movement-in-june-vb
Update: Ron's link above has been deleted. However, you can still see a copy of it here.
Lets look at some numbers for EB2 India:
EB2 India gets 2802 visas every year (7% * 28.6% * 140,000)
FB spillover: 361
EB Spillover: varies
Total Supply = 3163 + EB spillovers
(a) Porting: Let us assume porting rate (from EB3 to EB2) is between 250-300 per month. Let us take average of 275 cases ported per month. This comes out to 3300 per year.
(b) Current Applicants: 450 (till Dec 2004) from June 2013 Demand Data (or 808 according to I-485 pending inventory)
Total Demand = 3300 + 450 (till Dec 2004) = 3750
The lawyers (Ware and Ron) are correct that EB2 India may only move few weeks this fiscal year (till Sept 30) if there is very small spillovers from other EB categories. We will have to wait for updated I-485 pending inventory to calculate what the latest demand is for EB2 India and other EB categories (to calculate spillovers/supply). Since EB1, EB2 ROW, EB4 and EB5 are current many of these cases (where visas were already issued) would not appear in demand data or pending inventory.
Demand data includes pre-approved cases (from USCIS and consular processing cases) waiting for visa numbers. I-485 inventory only includes pending cases (but does not include consular processing cases).
If dates do not move in July VB, then there is a high probability that expected EB spillovers to EB2 India could be low (since I-485 processing time is 4-8 months). If the spillovers were very high, Charles Oppenheim would move the dates in July VB to make sure visas are not wasted (since there are only 2 more months after July VB till the fiscal years ends on Sept 30).
Based on current data, EB2 India could move between Nov 2007 and April 2008 in July, August and September VB. People who are going to file I-485 application in July VB would have to hurry up before dates start retrogressing (which is likely in Oct VB).
We will continue to post updates.
Related Post: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb2-india-analysis-and-prediction.html