This post was updated on May 7. Please scroll below to see the latest updates.
Few lawyers are mentioning the news that USCIS recently discovered 20,000 more cases in EB2 India category.
These additional 20,000 cases have not been previously reported to DOS (Department of State) by USCIS.
We do not know how many of these 20,000 cases have been preadjudicated. This is important because the monthly demand data only contains preadjudicated cases (and many consular processing cases) awaiting visa numbers.
If many of these cases have not been preadjudicated (since they recently discovered it), then these would not appear in the monthly demand data. The only place it would now appear is in the I-485 pending inventory (which has not been updated in the last 4 months).
We do not know how many of these cases are of priority dates before Dec 2007 and how many of them are after that date.
We are still waiting for official confirmation of these 20,000 additional cases in EB2 India category. If the news is true, then it would severely impact how far EB2 India would move between July 2013 to September 2013 visa bulletin. It could (in rare case) cause EB2 India to retrogress in June 2013 VB (though this is very unlikely).
We are expecting USCIS to release the updated I-485 pending inventory sometimes this month. That would give us an accurate idea of actual demand in EB2 India category.
The monthly demand data should be out by May 8th. If its true and these new cases have been preadjudicated by USCIS, then it would show a (huge) increase in demand in EB2 India category. We will keep you posted on any updates.
Update (May 7):
We may have found the original source. Charles Oppenheim (from Visa Office) had a meeting with many AILA lawyers on Oct 2012. At that time he had mentioned that EB2 India has 20,000 cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. The rumor seems to be based on these 20,000 numbers.
After more research, these 20,000 cases mentioned in Oct 2012 meeting are actually PRE-ADJUDICATED cases and not newly discovered cases (or cases unallocated in the I-485 pending inventory). Since these are pre-adjudicated cases, it should already appear in the monthly demand data.
This could mean that EB2 India will finally move forward in the next few bulletins till Sept 2012 visa bulletin. After that, from Oct 2012 visa bulletin, the cutoff dates could retrogress again. We will post an article soon on this topic.
The updated I-485 pending inventory should not have any huge increase in EB2 India category. However if USCIS is preadjudicating cases (which is likely), the demand data should see an increase in EB2 India category in the coming months.
The June 2013 Demand Data had cumulative increase of only 300 for PD till Dec 31, 2011. If this rumor is (still) true and USCIS/DOS is aware of this, then these 20,000 additional cases would appear in the May 2013 I-485 pending inventory (assuming USCIS releases the data this month).
- EB2 India Analysis And Prediction: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb2-india-analysis-and-prediction.html
- According to Charles Oppenheim, EB2 India could move to February 2008 in FY 2013: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-visa-bulletin-movement-from.html
- EB2 India Visa Bulletin Movement from August 2013 to December 2013: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html