Saturday, May 4, 2013

EB2 India - 20,000 Additional Cases Discovered (Updated)

New Blog Post On June 16 :  EB2 India Visa Bulletin Movement from August 2013 to December 2013

This post was updated on May 7. Please scroll below to see the latest updates.

Few lawyers are mentioning the news that USCIS recently discovered 20,000 more cases in EB2 India category.

These additional 20,000 cases have not been previously reported to DOS (Department of  State) by USCIS.

We do not know how many of these 20,000 cases have been preadjudicated. This is important because the monthly demand data only contains preadjudicated cases (and many consular processing cases) awaiting visa numbers.

If many of these cases have not been preadjudicated (since they recently discovered it), then these would not appear in the monthly demand data. The only place it would now appear is in the I-485 pending inventory (which has not been updated in the last 4 months).

We do not know how many of these cases are of priority dates before Dec 2007 and how many of them are after that date.

We are still waiting for official confirmation of these 20,000 additional cases in EB2 India category. If  the news is true, then it would severely impact how far EB2 India would move between July 2013 to September 2013 visa bulletin. It could (in rare case) cause EB2 India to retrogress in June 2013 VB (though this is very unlikely).

We are expecting USCIS to release the updated I-485 pending inventory sometimes this month. That would give us an accurate idea of actual demand in EB2 India category.

The monthly demand data should be out by May 8th. If its true and these new cases have been preadjudicated by USCIS, then it would show a (huge) increase in demand in EB2 India category. We will keep you posted on any updates.

Update (May 7):

We may have found the original source. Charles Oppenheim (from Visa Office) had a meeting with many AILA lawyers on Oct 2012. At that time he had mentioned that EB2 India has 20,000 cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. The rumor seems to be based on these 20,000 numbers.

After more research, these 20,000 cases mentioned in Oct 2012 meeting are actually PRE-ADJUDICATED cases and not newly discovered cases (or cases unallocated in the I-485 pending inventory). Since these are pre-adjudicated cases, it should already appear in the monthly demand data.

This could mean that EB2 India will finally move forward in the next few bulletins till Sept 2012 visa bulletin. After that, from Oct 2012 visa bulletin, the cutoff dates could retrogress again. We will post an article soon on this topic.

The updated I-485 pending inventory should not have any huge increase in EB2 India category. However if USCIS is preadjudicating cases (which is likely), the demand data should see an increase in EB2 India category in the coming months.

Quick Note:

The June 2013 Demand Data had cumulative increase of only 300 for PD till Dec 31, 2011. If this rumor is (still) true and USCIS/DOS is aware of this, then these 20,000 additional cases would appear in the May 2013 I-485 pending inventory (assuming USCIS releases the data this month).

Also See:

13 comments:

  1. First USCIS wastes 18,000 visas in FB category. Then it discovers 20,000 cases in EB2 India category. What is going on with USCIS?

    It looks like they are using very old system for daily use.

    ReplyDelete
  2. A Jan 3 2013 Blog on your website titled "Updated: Visa Bulletin Prediction For 2013" referred to the 20,000 EB2 India numbers as shown below. Now are you referring to the same 20,000 ? or are these new 20,000 above and beyond those numbers from Jan 3 2013 Blog ?

    Copied from your Jan 3 2013 Blog:

    Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2): India

    The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a good question. Based on the exact numbers it seems that these could be the same thing.

      If it is the same thing, the confusing part is why they haven't yet added these to I-485 pending inventory and/or the demand data.

      Delete
  3. yes, USCIS and DOS have been still using old floppy disc/DOS based systems (partially) to process their applications.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you sure they are not using punch cards? :)

      Delete
    2. Most IT people born after 1980 would not know what punch card is.

      Delete
    3. Googling for punch cards..!

      Delete
  4. This is great news. Finally EB2I can relax and ignore prediction by lawyers saying that dates will not move more than few weeks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still early to celebrate

      Delete
    2. As Amazon wrote above, Ron has confirmed that these are preadjudicated cases.

      Delete
  5. How many lawyers have even mentioned the 18,000 spillovers from FB category to EB category.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have seen some people point it out to them in their forums. Not sure if they agree with it.

      Delete

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